Use of fluorescence in situ hybridization to predict response to bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy for bladder cancer: results of a prospective trial.

PURPOSE: No reliable methods currently exist to predict patient response to intravesical immunotherapy with bacillus Calmette-Guérin given after transurethral resection for high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. We initiated a prospective clinical trial to determine whether fluorescence in situ hybridization results during bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy can predict therapy failure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Candidates for standard of care bacillus Calmette-Guérin were offered participation in a clinical trial. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was performed before bacillus Calmette-Guérin, and at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months during bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy with maintenance. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relationship between fluorescence in situ hybridization results and tumor recurrence or progression. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate recurrence-free and progression-free survival. RESULTS: A total of 126 patients participated in the study. At a median followup of 24 months 31% of patients had recurrent tumors and 14% experienced disease progression. Patients who had positive fluorescence in situ hybridization results during bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy were 3 to 5 times more likely than those who had negative fluorescence in situ hybridization results to experience recurrent tumors and 5 to 13 times more likely to have disease progression (p <0.01). The timing of positive fluorescence in situ hybridization results also affected outcomes. For example, patients with a negative fluorescence in situ hybridization result at baseline, 6 weeks and 3 months demonstrated an 8.3% recurrence rate compared to 48.1% for those with a positive result at all 3 points. CONCLUSIONS: Fluorescence in situ hybridization results can identify patients at risk for tumor recurrence and progression during bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy. This information may be used to counsel patients about alternative treatment strategies.