[Risk assessment for malaria elimination in P. R. China].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk area in China during the malaria elimination process, and provide the evidence for promotion of the national malaria elimination programme and implementation of elimination strategy. METHODS: Data collection was conducted in 24 endemic provinces in 2010, including data of transmission capacity, potential risk of malaria transmission and the capacity of health professional team at county level. Quantitative assessment of the malaria transmission risk as well as the capacity of health facilities were conducted based on the calculation of malaria transmission risk index (MTI) and health facilities capacity index (CI). ArcGIS 10.0 was used to develop the risk map based on the outcome of quantitative assessment. RESULTS: The data of transmission capacity, potential risk of transmission and the capacity of health professional team were collected from 2147 counties in 24 provinces. Based on MTI and CI calculated for each county, statistic results showed that about 40% of the counties were under the average level of both MTI and CI. The relationship among potential risk of transmission, the capacity of health professional team and malaria incidence were analyzed in three dimensions, and four types were categorized among 2147 counties. Type I (super-high risk area) counties (20) distributed in Yunnan (9), Guangxi (5), Henan (1), Hunan (1), Hebei (1), Sichuan (1), Chongqing (1), and Tibet (1). 17 counties were classified into type II (high risk area) area, distributed in Yunnan (3), Guangxi (2), Guizhou (2), Shaanxi (2), Guangdong (1), Jiangxi (1), Hubei (1), Sichuan (1), Gansu (1), Hebei (1), Fujian (1) and Tibet (1). A total of 170 type III (moderate risk area) counties distributed in 19 provinces including Yunnan (15), Guizhou (14), Hebei (14), Sichuan (13), Shanxi (10), Guangxi (9), Hunan (9), Anhui (9), Jiangsu (9), Shaanxi (9), Shandong (9), Chongqing (8), Gansu (8), Jiangxi (7), Henan (7), Fujian (6), Guangdong (5), Hubei (5), and Zhejiang (4). 1940 type IV (low risk area) counties distributed in 24 provinces. CONCLUSION: The distribution of four types of risk area for malaria elimination is identified in China.