Explaining match outcome in elite Australian Rules football using team performance indicators.
J Sports Sci
; 34(7): 637-44, 2016.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26176890
ABSTRACT
The relationships between team performance indicators and match outcome have been examined in many team sports, however are limited in Australian Rules football. Using data from the 2013 and 2014 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, this study assessed the ability of commonly reported discrete team performance indicators presented in their relative form (standardised against their opposition for a given match) to explain match outcome (Win/Loss). Logistic regression and decision tree (chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID)) analyses both revealed relative differences between opposing teams for "kicks" and "goal conversion" as the most influential in explaining match outcome, with two models achieving 88.3% and 89.8% classification accuracies, respectively. Models incorporating a smaller performance indicator set displayed a slightly reduced ability to explain match outcome (81.0% and 81.5% for logistic regression and CHAID, respectively). However, both were fit to 2014 data with reduced error in comparison to the full models. Despite performance similarities across the two analysis approaches, the CHAID model revealed multiple winning performance indicator profiles, thereby increasing its comparative feasibility for use in the field. Coaches and analysts may find these results useful in informing strategy and game plan development in Australian Rules football, with the development of team-specific models recommended in future.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Futebol
/
Análise e Desempenho de Tarefas
/
Comportamento Competitivo
/
Desempenho Atlético
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Oceania
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Sports Sci
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália