Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 23(3): 415-422, 2017 03.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28221131
ABSTRACT
Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km2) and very low (<100/km2) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Hominidae
/
Doença pelo Vírus Ebola
/
Ebolavirus
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Emerg Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article