An Evidence Synthesis Approach to Estimating the Proportion of Influenza Among Influenza-like Illness Patients.
Epidemiology
; 28(4): 484-491, 2017 07.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28252453
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Estimation of the national-level incidence of seasonal influenza is notoriously challenging. Surveillance of influenza-like illness is carried out in many countries using a variety of data sources, and several methods have been developed to estimate influenza incidence. Our aim was to obtain maximally informed estimates of the proportion of influenza-like illness that is true influenza using all available data.METHODS:
We combined data on weekly general practice sentinel surveillance consultation rates for influenza-like illness, virologic testing of sampled patients with influenza-like illness, and positive laboratory tests for influenza and other pathogens, applying Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of influenza-like illness as a test for influenza virus infection. We estimated the weekly number of influenza-like illness consultations attributable to influenza for nine influenza seasons, and for four age groups.RESULTS:
The estimated PPV for influenza in influenza-like illness patients was highest in the weeks surrounding seasonal peaks in influenza-like illness rates, dropping to near zero in between-peak periods. Overall, 14.1% (95% credible interval [CrI] 13.5%, 14.8%) of influenza-like illness consultations were attributed to influenza infection; the estimated PPV was 50% (95% CrI 48%, 53%) for the peak weeks and 5.8% during the summer periods.CONCLUSIONS:
The model quantifies the correspondence between influenza-like illness consultations and influenza at a weekly granularity. Even during peak periods, a substantial proportion of influenza-like illness-61%-was not attributed to influenza. The much lower proportion of influenza outside the peak periods reflects the greater circulation of other respiratory pathogens relative to influenza.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções Respiratórias
/
Vacinas contra Influenza
/
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Influenza Humana
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Policy_brief
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiology
Assunto da revista:
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Holanda