Relationship between circulating progesterone at timed-AI and fertility in dairy cows subjected to GnRH-based protocols.

The objectives of this retrospective study were: 1) to investigate the effect of plasma progesterone (P4) concentrations at the time of timed-AI (TAI) on fertility, and 2) to examine risk factors associated with plasma P4 concentrations that impair fertility in lactating dairy cows subjected to GnRH-based protocols. Data from 872 lactating Holstein cows that had, or had not been presynchronized prior to a 7-day GnRH-based TAI protocol were examined. However, data from only those cows (n = 697; 79.9%) that ovulated after second GnRH were analyzed. Plasma P4 concentrations were determined using a solid-phase radioimmunoassay. Transrectal ultrasonography was used to determine cyclicity at first GnRH treatment, ovulation after first and second GnRH treatments, and pregnancy status at 32 and 60 d after TAI. Parity, days in milk (DIM) and BCS were also recorded. Plasma P4 concentrations at TAI ranged from 0.0 to 9.94 ng/mL (overall mean ± SEM, 0.32 ± 0.02 ng/mL) and 41 (5.9%) cows had P4 ≥ 1.0 ng/mL at TAI. The percentage of cows diagnosed pregnant at 32 and 60 d after TAI was 45.1 and 41.6%, respectively, and pregnancy loss from 32 to 60 d after TAI was 7.6%. Plasma P4 concentrations at TAI affected (P < 0.01) P/AI at 32 and 60 d, but did not affect (P > 0.1) pregnancy loss. No cows with plasma P4 concentrations >0.80 ng/mL became pregnant. However, ROC curve analysis revealed that the optimal P4 threshold at TAI for P/AI at 32 d was ≤0.50 ng/mL, with a sensitivity and specificity of 94.9 and 20.9, respectively. The percentage of cows with plasma P4 concentrations >0.50 ng/mL was 15.8% (110/697). Furthermore, a significant (P < 0.05) quadratic relationship between plasma P4 concentrations at TAI and P/AI at 32 d was observed. The maximum predicted probability of pregnancy was 0.54 at a P4 concentration of 0.26 ng/mL. Based on the odds ratios (OR), cows with P4 ≤ 6.2 ng/mL at PGF were 2.3 times less likely to have P4 > 0.50 ng/mL at TAI compared to cows with P4 > 6.2 ng/mL (OR = 0.44; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.71; P < 0.01). Also, cyclic cows subjected to presynchronization were less likely to undergo luteal regression than non-presynchronized or acyclic cows (OR = 5.3; 95% CI = 1.77 to 16.27; P < 0.01). In summary, plasma P4 concentrations >0.50 ng/mL at TAI resulted in significantly reduced fertility. As elevated plasma P4 concentrations at TAI were more frequent in cows with lower P4 at PGF or those subjected to presynchronization, both groups are most likely to benefit from an additional PGF treatment prior to TAI.