Thirty-day mortality after emergency surgery for obstructing colon cancer: survey and dedicated score from the French Surgical Association.

ABSTRACT

AIM: The aim was to define risk factors for postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency surgery for obstructing colon cancer (OCC) and to propose a dedicated score. METHOD: From 2000 to 2015, 2325 patients were treated for OCC in French surgical centres by members of the French National Surgical Association. A multivariate analysis was performed for variables with P value ≤ 0.20 in the univariate analysis for 30-day mortality. Predictive performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: A total of 1983 patients were included. Thirty-day postoperative mortality was 7%. Multivariate analysis found five significant independent risk factors age ≥ 75 (P = 0.013), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ III (P = 0.027), pulmonary comorbidity (P = 0.0002), right-sided cancer (P = 0.047) and haemodynamic failure (P < 0.0001). The odds ratio for risk of postoperative death was 3.42 with one factor, 5.80 with two factors, 15.73 with three factors, 29.23 with four factors and 77.25 with five factors. The discriminating capacity in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality was 0.80. CONCLUSION: Thirty-day postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for OCC is correlated with age, ASA score, pulmonary comorbidity, site of tumour and haemodynamic failure, with a specific score ranging from 0 to 5.