Outcome prediction using the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score combined with procalcitonin for influenza patients.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Severe influenza is often associated with bacterial coinfection and can trigger sepsis, which increases the severity, complexity and mortality of the disease. To determine an effective method for predicting 28-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with influenza, we investigated the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, procalcitonin (PCT) and other relevant biomarkers. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, observational, monocentric study, and the endpoint was 28-day mortality. Independent predictors were identified and a new combination predictive model was created both by logistic regression, and the model was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: A total of 364 consecutive ED admitted patients with influenza were enrolled and 45 patients died within 28 days. For predicting 28-day mortality, the MEDS score and PCT were independent predictors with adjusted odds ratio of 1.318 (95% CI 1.206-1.439) and 1.038 (95% CI 1.010-1.065), and with AUCs of 0.817 (95% CI 0.756-0.878) and 0.793 (95% CI 0.725-0.861), respectively. The new combination of the MEDS score with PCT significantly improved the efficacy for predicting 28-day mortality with an AUC of 0.857 (95% CI 0.809-0.905), and was superior to the SOFA score with an AUC of 0.837 (95% CI 0.779-0.894). CONCLUSION: The MEDS score and PCT, especially when combined, perform well for predicting mortality of ED admitted patients with influenza.