Transient elastography predicts survival after radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma developing on cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prognostic value of transient elastography (TE) in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is currently unknown. METHOD(S) We included patients with histologically proven cirrhosis and with a first diagnosis of HCC inside Milan criteria treated by percutaneous RFA, and with TE available the year before treatment with 10 shots and interquartile range/median < 30%. Association between variables and clinical events was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test and using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-nine patients were included, with a median age of 65 years; 77.4% were men. Causes of cirrhosis were alcohol consumption (48.1%), hepatitis C (43.7%), hepatitis B (12.7%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (32.3%). Median value of TE was 26 kPa (4-75 kPa). Overall survival at 1, 2, and 5 years was, respectively, 93%, 81%, and 44%; overall recurrence was 28%, 49%, and 80%. The TE value was not associated with tumor recurrence (0.13). In contrast, in univariate analysis, TE value, age, Child-Pugh B, and alkaline phosphatase were predictive factors in overall survival. In multivariate analysis, TE value (hazards ratio [HR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (IC) 1.01-1.04, 0.001), age (HR = 1.05, 95% IC 1.03-1.08, P = 0.00006), and Child-Pugh B score (HR = 2.78, 95% IC 1.27-6.08, P = 0.01) were independently associated with higher risk of death. A TE value ≥ 40 kPa was associated with shorter median overall survival (34 months) compared to a TE value < 40 kPa (59 months, P = 0.0008). CONCLUSION(S) Transient elastography (TE) predicts overall survival but not tumor recurrence in cirrhotic patients with HCC treated by RFA.