Validation of a clinical score in predicting pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Acta Chir Belg
; 121(1): 30-35, 2021 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31535593
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most severe complications after cephalic pancreaticoduodenectomy, with mortality as high as 30%. Risk scores may help predict the risk of POPF. Multiple external validations substantially improve generalized clinical acceptability of a scoring system.AIM:
The aim of this study was to externally validate previously described fistula risk score in the prediction of clinically relevant POPF.METHODS:
All patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for any indication during a 5-year period were prospectively analyzed. A total of 132 patients were analyzed.RESULTS:
Of the 132 patients, 44 (33.3%) developed pancreatic fistula, including 12.9% biochemical leaks, 7.6% grade B fistula, and 12.9% grade C fistula. Cut-off point of 4.5 was determined to best separate patients who developed clinically relevant POPF with area under curve of 78% (p = .00003). Sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of clinically relevant POPF with the cut-off value of 4.5 was 70.4 and 74.3%, respectively. Positive predictive value with cut-off value 4.5 was 57.8%, and negative predictive value was 83.4%.CONCLUSION:
Fistula risk score identified low risk patients with false negative rate of 16.6%. Further external validation studies on large cohorts of patients and with wide case-mix may enable additional refinements of the score model.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Fístula Pancreática
/
Pancreaticoduodenectomia
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Acta Chir Belg
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Croácia