Prognostic value of the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram in sarcomeric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: data from the REMY French register.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To identify independent electrocardiogram (ECG) predictors of long-term clinical outcome based on standardized analysis of the surface ECG in a large multicentre cohort of patients with sarcomeric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS AND RESULTS: Retrospective observational study from the REMY French HCM clinical research observatory. Primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, major non-fatal arrhythmic events, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), and stroke. Secondary endpoints were components of the primary endpoint. Uni- and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors. Among 994 patients with HCM, only 1.8% had a strictly normal baseline ECG. The most prevalent abnormalities were inverted T waves (63.7%), P-wave abnormalities (30.4%), and abnormal Q waves (25.5%). During a mean follow-up of 4.0 ± 2.0 years, a total of 272 major cardiovascular events occurred in 217 patients (21.8%) death or heart transplant in 98 (9.8%), major arrhythmic events in 40 (4.0%), HF hospitalization in 115 (11.6%), and stroke in 23 (2.3%). At multivariable analysis using ECG covariates, prolonged QTc interval, low QRS voltage, and PVCs of right bundle branch block pattern predicted worse outcome, but none remained independently associated with the primary endpoint after adjustment on main demographic and clinical variables. For secondary endpoints, abnormal Q waves independently predicted all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-4.47; P = 0.009] and prolonged QTc the risk of HF hospitalization (HR 1.006, 95% CI 1.001-1.011; P = 0.024). CONCLUSION: The 12-lead surface ECG has no independent value to predict the primary outcome measure in patients with HCM. The 12-lead surface ECG has been widely used as a screening tool in HCM but its prognostic value remains poorly known. The value of baseline surface ECG to predict long-term clinical outcomes was studied in a cohort of 994 patients with sarcomeric HCM. The surface ECG has no significant additional value to predict outcome in this patient population.