HIV residual risk in Canada under a three-month deferral for men who have sex with men.
Vox Sang
; 115(2): 133-139, 2020 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31777098
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:
In Canada, the deferral for men who have sex with men (MSM) was decreased from a permanent deferral to a 5-year then a 12-month deferral. Current HIV testing can detect an HIV infection in donated blood within 2 weeks of exposure; thus, a 12-month deferral may be unnecessarily restrictive. We aimed to estimate the residual risk of HIV if the deferral were further decreased to 3 months. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
Using a deterministic model with stochastic Monte Carlo simulation, residual risk of HIV was the sum of testing error, assay sensitivity and window-period risks. Data inputs were estimated from donor surveillance, donor surveys and published data. Residual risk was modelled at baseline and using three scenarios (1) most likely - non-compliance, HIV prevalence and incidence rates of MSM are unchanged; (2) optimistic - non-compliance improves by 50%; and (3) pessimistic - non-compliance, HIV prevalence and incidence rates of MSM all double.RESULTS:
HIV residual risk at baseline was 1 in 36·0 million donations (95% CI 1 in 1 504 907 million, 10·5 million); in the most likely scenario 1 in 34·2 million (1 in 225 534 million, 8·7 million); in the optimistic scenario 1 in 36·0 million (1 in 282 618 million, 9·5 million); in the pessimistic scenario 1 in 16·7 million (1 in 39 469 million, 6·0 million). All confidence intervals overlapped.CONCLUSION:
With very low modelled risk under a 12-month deferral, the additional risk with a 3-month deferral is very low. This is true even with a pessimistic scenario.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doadores de Sangue
/
Infecções por HIV
/
Cooperação do Paciente
/
Homossexualidade Masculina
/
Reação Transfusional
/
Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Vox Sang
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Canadá