Early prediction model of organ/space surgical site infection after elective gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer surgery.
J Infect Chemother
; 26(9): 916-922, 2020 Sep.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32360091
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Organ/space SSI is a significant clinical problem. However, early detection of organ/space SSI is difficult, and previous predictive models are limited in their prognostic ability. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of organ/space surgical site infection (SSI) using postoperative day 3 laboratory data in patients who underwent gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer resection.METHODS:
This retrospective cohort study using a single-center hospital data from April 2013 to September 2017 included all adult patients who underwent elective gastrointestinal or hepatopancreatobiliary cancer resection. The primary outcome was a presence of organ/space SSI including anastomotic leakage, pancreatic fistula, biliary fistula, or intra-abdominal abscess. We developed and validated a logistic regression model to predict organ/space SSI using laboratory data on postoperative day (POD) 3. Similar models using laboratory data on POD 1 or 5 were developed to compare the predictive ability of each model.RESULTS:
A total of 1578 patients were included. Organ/space SSI was diagnosed in 107 patients, with median diagnosis days of 6 (interquartile range, 4-9 days) after surgery. A prediction model using five commonly measured variables on POD 3 was created with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.883 (95%CI 0.819-0.946). The AUC of a model with POD 1 laboratory data was 0.751 (95%CI 0.655-0.848), while that of POD 5 laboratory data was 0.818 (95%CI 0.730-0.906).CONCLUSIONS:
Laboratory data on POD 3 could forecast organ/space SSI precisely. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the clinical impact of this model.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecção da Ferida Cirúrgica
/
Neoplasias
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Infect Chemother
Assunto da revista:
MICROBIOLOGIA
/
TERAPIA POR MEDICAMENTOS
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article