Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach.
PLoS One
; 15(7): e0235969, 2020.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32645097
ABSTRACT
Decisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal level of surveillance against a highly infectious animal disease where time, space and randomness are fully considered. We apply the Sample Average Approximation approach to solve our problem, and to control model dimension, we propose the use of an infection tree model, in combination with sensible 'tree-pruning' and parallel processing techniques. Our proposed model and techniques are generally applicable to a number of disease types, but we demonstrate the approach by solving for optimal surveillance levels against foot-and-mouth disease using bulk milk testing as an active surveillance protocol, during an epidemic, among 42,279 farms, fully characterised by their location, livestock type and size, in the state of Victoria, Australia.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vigilância da População
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Medição de Risco
/
Vírus da Febre Aftosa
/
Gado
/
Febre Aftosa
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Oceania
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália