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ANDC: an early warning score to predict mortality risk for patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.
Weng, Zhihong; Chen, Qiaosen; Li, Sumeng; Li, Huadong; Zhang, Qian; Lu, Sihong; Wu, Li; Xiong, Leiqun; Mi, Bobin; Liu, Di; Lu, Mengji; Yang, Dongliang; Jiang, Hongbo; Zheng, Shaoping; Zheng, Xin.
Afiliação
  • Weng Z; Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
  • Chen Q; Joint International Laboratory of Infection and Immunity, Union Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Li S; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, 283 Jianghai Road, Guangzhou, 510310, China.
  • Li H; Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
  • Zhang Q; Department of Infectious Diseases, Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China.
  • Lu S; Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
  • Wu L; Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
  • Xiong L; Department of Gastroenterology, Loudi Central Hospital, Loudi, China.
  • Mi B; Department of Tuberculosis, Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, Wuhan, China.
  • Liu D; Department of Orthopedics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Lu M; Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA.
  • Yang D; Joint International Laboratory of Infection and Immunity, Union Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Jiang H; Institute of Virology, University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany.
  • Zheng S; Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
  • Zheng X; Joint International Laboratory of Infection and Immunity, Union Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
J Transl Med ; 18(1): 328, 2020 08 31.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32867787
BACKGROUND: Patients with severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) will progress rapidly to acute respiratory failure or death. We aimed to develop a quantitative tool for early predicting mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: 301 patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Main District and Tumor Center of the Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Wuhan, China) between January 1, 2020 to February 15, 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective two-centers study. Data on patient demographic characteristics, laboratory findings and clinical outcomes was analyzed. A nomogram was constructed to predict the death probability of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer and C-reactive protein obtained on admission were identified as predictors of mortality for COVID-19 patients by LASSO. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.921 and 0.975 for the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. An integrated score (named ANDC) with its corresponding death probability was derived. Using ANDC cut-off values of 59 and 101, COVID-19 patients were classified into three subgroups. The death probability of low risk group (ANDC < 59) was less than 5%, moderate risk group (59 ≤ ANDC ≤ 101) was 5% to 50%, and high risk group (ANDC > 101) was more than 50%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The prognostic nomogram exhibited good discrimination power in early identification of COVID-19 patients with high mortality risk, and ANDC score may help physicians to optimize patient stratification management.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Pneumonia Viral / Infecções por Coronavirus / Nomogramas / Escore de Alerta Precoce Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: J Transl Med Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Pneumonia Viral / Infecções por Coronavirus / Nomogramas / Escore de Alerta Precoce Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: J Transl Med Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China