Prediction of mortality in metastatic colorectal cancer in a real-life population: a multicenter explorative analysis.
BMC Cancer
; 20(1): 1149, 2020 Nov 25.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33238958
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) remains a lethal disease. Survival, however, is increasing due to a growing number of treatment options. Yet due to the number of prognostic factors and their interactions, prediction of mortality is difficult. The aim of this study is to provide a clinical model supporting prognostication of mCRC mortality in daily practice.METHODS:
Data from 1104 patients with mCRC in three prospective cancer datasets were used to construct and validate Cox models. Input factors for stepwise backward method variable selection were sex, RAS/BRAF-status, microsatellite status, treatment type (no treatment, systemic treatment with or without resection of metastasis), tumor load, location of primary tumor, metastatic patterns and synchronous or metachronous disease. The final prognostic model for prediction of survival at two and 3 years was validated via bootstrapping to obtain calibration and discrimination C-indices and dynamic time dependent AUC.RESULTS:
Age, sidedness, number of organs with metastases, lung as only site of metastasis, BRAF mutation status and treatment type were selected for the model. Treatment type had the most prominent influence on survival (resection of metastasis HR 0.26, CI 0.21-0.32; any treatment vs no treatment HR 0.31, CI 0.21-0.32), followed by BRAF mutational status (HR 2.58, CI 1.19-1.59). Validation showed high accuracy with C-indices of 72.2 and 71.4%, and dynamic time dependent AUC's of 76.7 ± 1.53% (both at 2 or 3 years), respectively.CONCLUSION:
The mCRC mortality prediction model is well calibrated and internally valid. It has the potential to support both, clinical prognostication for treatment decisions and patient communication.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Colorretais
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Nomogramas
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Cancer
Assunto da revista:
NEOPLASIAS
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Áustria