Adjuvant surgical decision-making system for lumbar intervertebral disc herniation after percutaneous endoscopic lumber discectomy: a retrospective nonlinear multiple logistic regression prediction model based on a large sample.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is a common condition that can affects an individual' quality of life. In patients for whom conservative treatment is ineffective after 3 months, surgical treatment, such as percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD), is recommended. Because PELD is minimally invasive and produces thorough nerve root decompression, both surgeons and patients often prefer it to other techniques. PURPOSE: Surgeons find it challenging to prevent postoperative recurrent LDH (rLDH) when they use PELD. We created and verified a model for evaluating patients' recurrence risk factors before surgery so that surgeons can choose other surgical techniques when necessary. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study. PATIENT SAMPLE: One thousand eight hundred seven patients who underwent PELD at our hospital between 2012 and 2015 were enrolled. OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was rLDH at any follow-up time point. METHODS: Data were retrospectively analyzed for 1807 patients who underwent PELD at our hospital at some point between 2012 and 2015; all patients had been monitored for at least 5 years after surgery. They were divided into a recurrence group and a nonrecurrence group. Clinical and radiological risk factors were assessed over time to determine their correlations with recurrence and to exclude less important factors. A nonlinear multivariate logistic regression model was established to predict the recurrence rate before surgery. RESULTS: A total of 1706 patients were monitored after PELD; data were missing for 101 additional patients. The total recurrence rate was 10.38%, and the most common time from surgery to recurrence was 1 year. Ten risk factors were assessed and included in the analysis. Regarding clinical risk factors, patients with hypertension (p < .001; correlation coefficient R [R] = 0.235; odds ratio [OR] = 4.749), diabetes (p < .001; R = 0.381; OR = 16.797), a history of smoking (p < .001; R = 0.347; OR = 9.012), and a history of performing intense physical labor (p < .001; R = 0.409; OR = 19.592) had a higher recurrence rate. Regarding radiological risk factors, patients with disc degeneration (Pfirrmann grade III) (p < .001; R = 0.228; OR = 4.919), Modic changes (level 2) (p < .001; R = 0.309; OR = 7.934), herniation in the form of extrusion (p < .001; R = 0.365; OR = 12.228), a higher disc height index (DHI) (p < .001; R = 0.336), and a larger segmental range of motion (p < .001; R = 0.243) had a higher recurrence rate. When the lumbar motion angle was negative (p < .001; R = 0.318; OR = 13.680), the recurrence rate was high. The overall accuracy of the final model was 97.6% (1665 of 1706). The recognition rate for non-rLDH cases was 99.0% (1514 of 1529), and the rate for rLDH cases was 85.3% (151 of 177); the AUC was 0.9315. A simple model was used. For those patients with postoperative trauma (p < .001; R = 0.382; OR = 13.680), a comparison model was established, and the corresponding recurrence rate was 23.0% ± 25.0% (0-76%). CONCLUSIONS: A large cohort of patients underwent long-term monitoring, and 11 risk factors were verified for assessing each patient's risks before surgery to predict the postoperative recurrence of LDH following PELD. The risk of recurrence may be effectively reduced with the use of alternative surgical techniques in high risk cases.