Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability.
Sci Adv
; 7(43): eabh4429, 2021 Oct 22.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34678070
ABSTRACT
Climate warming is unequivocal and exceeds internal climate variability. However, estimates of the magnitude of decadal-scale variability from models and observations are uncertain, limiting determination of the fraction of warming attributable to external forcing. Here, we use statistical learning to extract a fingerprint of climate change that is robust to different model representations and magnitudes of internal variability. We find a best estimate forced warming trend of 0.8°C over the past 40 years, slightly larger than observed. It is extremely likely that at least 85% is attributable to external forcing based on the median variability across climate models. Detection remains robust even when evaluated against models with high variability and if decadal-scale variability were doubled. This work addresses a long-standing limitation in attributing warming to external forcing and opens up opportunities even in the case of large model differences in decadal-scale variability, model structural uncertainty, and limited observational records.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Adv
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Suíça