How useful are body mass index and history of diabetes in COVID-19 risk stratification?

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the value of risk stratification by documented diagnosis of diabetes and objectively measured height and weight (BMI) in COVID-19 severity and mortality in a large sample of patients in an urban hospital located in Southern California. METHODS: Data from a retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients treated at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center between March 8, 2020, and January 25, 2021, was analyzed. Sociodemographic characteristics and pre-existing conditions were extracted from electronic medical records. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models identified associated risk factors, and a regression causal mediation analysis examined the role of diabetes in the association between obesity and illness severity. All analyses were stratified by age (<65 and ≥65). RESULTS: Among individuals <65yo, diabetes accounted for 19-30% of the associations between obesity and COVID-19 illness severity. Among patients ≥65yo, having a BMI <18.5 was a risk factor for mortality regardless of diabetes history. CONCLUSION: Our findings have clinical implications in documenting which patients may be at elevated risk for adverse outcomes. More in-depth prospective studies are needed to capture how glycemic regulation may influence prognosis.