Plaque progression at coronary CT angiography links non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular events: a prospective single-center study.

OBJECTIVES: The presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs); however, the mechanisms that initiate the risk for MACEs in patients with NAFLD remain unknown. We sought to investigate whether plaque progression (PP), determined by coronary CT angiography (CCTA), moderate the relationship between NAFLD and MACEs. METHODS: A total of 1683 asymptomatic participants (mean age, 63.3 ± 9.4 [range, 38-85] years; 1117 men) who underwent baseline and follow-up CCTA examination were prospectively included in our study. All of the participants were divided into the NAFLD and non-NAFLD groups. PP was determined by follow-up CCTA. The primary endpoint was MACEs, defined as the composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and unplanned hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome leading to revascularization. RESULTS: At follow-up CCTA, participants with NAFLD showed higher incidence of PP than those without [33.0% (248/752) vs. 16.6% (155/931), p < 0.001]. Compared with non-NAFLD participants, participants with NAFLD had a lower 9.7-year event-free survival rate (80.9 vs. 66.4%, log-rank p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed NAFLD was significantly associated with MACEs (HR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.28 to 2.06, p < 0.001) after adjusting for covariables. However, this association was no longer significant after adjustment for PP (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.45, p = 0.496). The mediation analysis revealed that PP had a significant indirect effect (ß = 0.0587, 95% CI: 0.0424 to 0.08, p < 0.001) and mediated 99.8% (p = 0.002) for the relationship between NAFLD and MACEs. CONCLUSIONS: Plaque progression, identified by follow-up CCTA, mediates the relationship between NAFLD and MACEs. KEY POINTS: The incidence of CCTA-identified PP was higher for participants with NAFLD than those without NAFLD (248/752 [33.0%] vs. 155/931 [16.6%], p < 0.001). Participants with NAFLD had a lower 9.7-year event-free survival rate than those without NAFLD (66.4% vs. 80.9%, log-rank p < 0.001). The mediation analysis revealed that PP had a significant indirect effect (ß = 0.0587, 95% CI: 0.0424 to 0.08, p < 0.001) and mediated 99.8% (p = 0.002) for the relationship between NAFLD and MACEs.