Spatiotemporal dynamics and decoupling mechanism of economic growth and carbon emissions in an urban agglomeration of China.

ABSTRACT

Carbon emissions and economic growth are two contradictions in urban development, and their decoupling is related to the sustainable development of cities. This paper took urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR), China, as the study area. The Kaya model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon emissions, the decoupling of economic activities, and driving factors. The results indicate that (1) carbon emissions increased by 66% in the study period, but the growth momentum was curbed after 2015. Low level and medium level areas continue to decrease, and relatively high level area gradually become dominant. (2) Spatially, carbon emissions are in a pattern of middle-hot and east-cold. Jiangxi is in the sub-cold and coldspot area, while the hotspot area is driven by the transformation from Wuhan's single-core to Wuhan and Changsha's dual-core. (3) Since 2010, most cities have been in a good decoupling state, and weak decoupling cities have risen from 35.5% in the initial period to 87.1% in 2010-2011, but the decoupling situation of industrial cities with more high-energy-consuming industries still rebounded slightly. (4) The economic level and energy intensity effect had the most significant impact on the economic decoupling of carbon emissions, whose absolute contribution rates were greater than 35%. Urbanization and economic level both play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions, and the energy intensity plays a negative role in retarding carbon emissions. The population effect was mainly manifested in carbon increase from 2006 to 2011, and 45.2% of the cities from 2011 to 2017 turned into carbon suppression. Finally, we suggest that decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth requires developing green urbanization and a decarbonized economy, optimizing the structure of energy consumption and guiding rational population flow.