Effect of Screening and Treatment for Gonorrhea and Chlamydia on HIV Incidence Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: A Modeling Analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous models have estimated the total population attributable fraction of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis (NG/CT) on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), but this does not represent realistic intervention effects. We estimated the potential impact of screening for NG/CT on downstream incidence of HIV among MSM. METHODS: Using a network model, we estimated the effects of varying coverage levels for sexually transmitted infection screening among different priority populations all sexually active MSM regardless of HIV serostatus, MSM with multiple recent (past 6 months) sex partners regardless of serostatus, MSM without HIV, and MSM with HIV. Under the assumption that all screening events included a urethral test, we also examined the effect of increasing the proportion of screening events that include rectal screening for NG/CT on HIV incidence. RESULTS: Increasing annual NG/CT screening among sexually active MSM by 60% averted 4.9% of HIV infections over a 10-year period (interquartile range, 2.8%-6.8%). More HIV infections were averted when screening was focused on MSM with multiple recent sex partners 60% coverage among MSM with multiple recent sex partners averted 9.8% of HIV infections (interquartile range, 8.1%-11.6%). Increased sexually transmitted infection screening among MSM without HIV averted more new HIV infections compared with the transmissions averted because of screening MSM with HIV, but fewer NG/CT tests were needed among MSM with HIV to avert a single new HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Screening of NG/CT among MSM is expected to lead to modest but clinically relevant reductions in HIV incidence among MSM.