Development of a risk prediction nomogram for sarcopenia in hemodialysis patients.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is associated with various adverse outcomes in hemodialysis patients. However, current tools for assessing and diagnosing sarcopenia have limited applicability. In this study, we aimed to develop a simple and reliable nomogram to predict the risk of sarcopenia in hemodialysis patients that could assist physicians identify high-risk patients early. METHODS: A total of 615 patients undergoing hemodialysis at the First Affiliated Hospital College of Medicine Zhejiang University between March to June 2021 were included. They were randomly divided into either the development cohort (n = 369) or the validation cohort (n = 246). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to screen statistically significant variables for constructing the risk prediction nomogram for Sarcopenia. The line plots were drawn to evaluate the effectiveness of the nomogram in three aspects, namely differentiation, calibration, and clinical net benefit, and were further validated by the Bootstrap method. RESULTS: The study finally included five clinical factors to construct the nomogram, including age, C-reactive protein, serum phosphorus, body mass index, and mid-upper arm muscle circumference, and constructed a nomogram. The area under the ROC curve of the line chart model was 0.869, with a sensitivity and specificity of 77% sensitivity and 83%, the Youden index was 0.60, and the internal verification C-statistic was 0.783. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a nomogram model to predict the risk of sarcopenia in hemodialysis patients, which can be used for early identification and timely intervention in high-risk groups.