Prediction of amyloid PET positivity via machine learning algorithms trained with EDTA-based blood amyloid-ß oligomerization data.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The tendency of amyloid-ß to form oligomers in the blood as measured with Multimer Detection System-Oligomeric Amyloid-ß (MDS-OAß) is a valuable biomarker for Alzheimer's disease and has been verified with heparin-based plasma. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)-based MDS-OAß and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) positivity. METHODS: The performance of EDTA-based MDS-OAß in predicting PET positivity was evaluated in 312 individuals with various machine learning models. The models with various combinations of features (i.e., MDS-OAß level, age, apolipoprotein E4 alleles, and Mini-Mental Status Examination [MMSE] score) were tested 50 times on each dataset. RESULTS: The random forest model best-predicted amyloid PET positivity based on MDS-OAß combined with other features with an accuracy of 77.14 ± 4.21% and an F1 of 85.44 ± 3.10%. The order of significance of predictive features was MDS-OAß, MMSE, Age, and APOE. The Support Vector Machine using the MDS-OAß value only showed an accuracy of 71.09 ± 3.27% and F-1 value of 80.18 ± 2.70%. CONCLUSIONS: The Random Forest model using EDTA-based MDS-OAß combined with the MMSE and apolipoprotein E status can be used to prescreen for amyloid PET positivity.