Evolution of household carbon emissions and their drivers from both income and consumption perspectives in China during 2010-2017.

ABSTRACT

Household inputs and consumption play important roles in driving carbon emissions in China. However, existing studies have mainly studied consumption-based household carbon emissions in specific years to highlight consumption guidance and management, and little attention has been given to income-based accounting and policy-making focused on primary input behaviors and product allocation behaviors. In the quest for more coordinated and efficient mitigation strategies, we applied input-output analysis (IOA) combined with the biproportional scaling method (RAS) to obtain both income- and consumption-based annual accounting of rural and urban household carbon emissions from 2010 to 2017 and then used structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to determine key driving factors and sectors. Our results revealed that the proportions of income-based household emissions in gross emissions were higher than that of consumption-based household emissions. In terms of driving factors, per capita income/consumption contributed the largest increase in household emissions for most of the period, and population changes also showed a weak positive effect. However, intermediate input/output structure and carbon emission intensity were the main offsetting factors for household emissions. Compared with the consumption-based results, the income-based results can identify some new critical sectors that lead to household emission changes. Furthermore, the discrepant results for rural and urban household carbon emissions from both income and consumption perspectives suggest that differentiated measures of rural and urban households in key sectors are necessary. Finally, we propose industrial chain adjustment strategies and household input and consumption behavior recommendations in the context of urbanization.