COVID-19 dynamics in an Ohio prison.
Front Public Health
; 11: 1087698, 2023.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37064663
ABSTRACT
Incarcerated individuals are a highly vulnerable population for infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Understanding the transmission of respiratory infections within prisons and between prisons and surrounding communities is a crucial component of pandemic preparedness and response. Here, we use mathematical and statistical models to analyze publicly available data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 reported by the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections (ODRC). Results from mass testing conducted on April 16, 2020 were analyzed together with time of first reported SARS-CoV-2 infection among Marion Correctional Institution (MCI) inmates. Extremely rapid, widespread infection of MCI inmates was reported, with nearly 80% of inmates infected within 3 weeks of the first reported inmate case. The dynamical survival analysis (DSA) framework that we use allows the derivation of explicit likelihoods based on mathematical models of transmission. We find that these data are consistent with three non-exclusive possibilities (i) a basic reproduction number >14 with a single initially infected inmate, (ii) an initial superspreading event resulting in several hundred initially infected inmates with a reproduction number of approximately three, or (iii) earlier undetected circulation of virus among inmates prior to April. All three scenarios attest to the vulnerabilities of prisoners to COVID-19, and the inability to distinguish among these possibilities highlights the need for improved infection surveillance and reporting in prisons.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Prisioneiros
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Front Public Health
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido