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Delineating the Seasonality of Varicella and Its Association With Climate in the Tropical Country of Colombia.
Barrero Guevara, Laura Andrea; Goult, Elizabeth; Rodriguez, Dayanne; Hernandez, Luis Jorge; Kaufer, Benedikt; Kurth, Tobias; Domenech de Cellès, Matthieu.
Afiliação
  • Barrero Guevara LA; Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Berlin, Germany.
  • Goult E; Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
  • Rodriguez D; Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Berlin, Germany.
  • Hernandez LJ; Medicine Department, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Kaufer B; Medicine Department, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Kurth T; Institute of Virology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
  • Domenech de Cellès M; Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
J Infect Dis ; 228(6): 674-683, 2023 09 15.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37384795
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Varicella causes a major health burden in many low- to middle-income countries located in tropical regions. Because of the lack of surveillance data, however, the epidemiology of varicella in these regions remains uncharacterized. In this study, based on an extensive dataset of weekly varicella incidence in children ≤10 during 2011-2014 in 25 municipalities, we aimed to delineate the seasonality of varicella across the diverse tropical climates of Colombia.

METHODS:

We used generalized additive models to estimate varicella seasonality, and we used clustering and matrix correlation methods to assess its correlation with climate. Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to examine whether including the effect of climate on varicella transmission could reproduce the observed spatiotemporal patterns.

RESULTS:

Varicella seasonality was markedly bimodal, with latitudinal changes in the peaks' timing and amplitude. This spatial gradient strongly correlated with specific humidity (Mantel statistic = 0.412, P = .001) but not temperature (Mantel statistic = 0.077, P = .225). The mathematical model reproduced the observed patterns not only in Colombia but also México, and it predicted a latitudinal gradient in Central America.

CONCLUSIONS:

These results demonstrate large variability in varicella seasonality across Colombia and suggest that spatiotemporal humidity fluctuations can explain the calendar of varicella epidemics in Colombia, México, and potentially in Central America.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Varicela Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Child / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: En Revista: J Infect Dis Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Alemanha

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Varicela Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Child / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: En Revista: J Infect Dis Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Alemanha