Pre- and Post-treatment Double-Sequential-Point Dynamic Radiomic Model in the Response Prediction of Gastric Cancer to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: 3-Year Survival Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction of patients with gastric cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy is suboptimal. This study aims to develop and validate a dynamic radiomic model for prognosis prediction of patients with gastric cancer on the basis of baseline and posttreatment features. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This single-center cohort study included patients with gastric adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy from June 2009 to July 2015 in the Gastrointestinal Cancer Center of Peking University Cancer Hospital. Their clinicopathological data, pre-treatment and post-treatment computed tomography (CT) images, and pathological reports were retrieved and analyzed. Four prediction models were developed and validated using tenfold cross-validation, with death within 3 years as the outcome. Model discrimination was compared by the area under the curve (AUC). The final radiomic model was evaluated for calibration and clinical utility using Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The study included 205 patients with gastric adenocarcinoma [166 (81%) male; mean age 59.9 (SD 10.3) years], with 71 (34.6%) deaths occurring within 3 years. The radiomic model alone demonstrated better discrimination than the pathological T stage (ypT) stage model alone (cross-validated AUC 0.598 versus 0.516, P = 0.009). The final radiomic model, which incorporated both radiomic and clinicopathological characteristics, had a significantly higher cross-validated AUC (0.769) than the ypT stage model (0.516), the radiomics alone model (0.598), and the ypT plus other clinicopathological characteristics model (0.738; all P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the final radiomic model. CONCLUSIONS: The developed radiomic model had good accuracy and could be used as a decision aid tool in clinical practice to differentiate prognosis of patients with gastric cancer.