Monitoring epidemic processes under political measures.
Stat Med
; 43(11): 2122-2160, 2024 May 20.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38487994
ABSTRACT
Statistical modeling of epidemiological curves to capture the course of epidemic processes and to implement a signaling system for detecting significant changes in the process is a challenging task, especially when the process is affected by political measures. As previous monitoring approaches are subject to various problems, we develop a practical and flexible tool that is well suited for monitoring epidemic processes under political measures. This tool enables monitoring across different epochs using a single statistical model that constantly adapts to the underlying process, and therefore allows both retrospective and on-line monitoring of epidemic processes. It is able to detect essential shifts and to identify anomaly conditions in the epidemic process, and it provides decision-makers a reliable method for rapidly learning from trends in the epidemiological curves. Moreover, it is a tool to evaluate the effectivity of political measures and to detect the transition from pandemic to endemic. This research is based on a comprehensive COVID-19 study on infection rates under political measures in line with the reporting of the Robert Koch Institute covering the entire period of the pandemic in Germany.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Política
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
COVID-19
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Stat Med
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Dinamarca