Temporal relationships between blood glucose, lipids and BMI, and their impacts on atherosclerosis: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the temporal relationship between blood glucose, lipids and body mass index (BMI), and their impacts on atherosclerosis (AS). DESIGN: A prospective cohort study was designed. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2659 subjects from Harbin Cohort Study on Diet, Nutrition and Chronic Non-communicable Diseases, and aged from 20 to 74 years were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Body weight, height, fasting blood glucose (FBG) and 2-hour postprandial glucose (2-h PG), blood lipids including total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) were measured at baseline and follow-up. Brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was examined at follow-up as a marker of AS risk. Logistic regression analysis, cross-lagged path analysis and mediation analysis were performed to explore the temporal relationships between blood glucose, lipids and BMI, and their impacts on AS risk. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis indicated that increased FBG, 2-h PG, TC, TG, LDL-c and BMI were positively associated with AS risk, while increased HDL-c was negatively associated with AS risk. The path coefficients from baseline blood parameters to the follow-up BMI were significantly greater than those from baseline BMI to the follow-up blood parameters. Mediation analysis suggested that increased FBG, 2-h PG, TC, TG and LDL-c could increase AS risk via increasing BMI, the effect intensity from strong to weak was LDL-c>TC>TG>FBG>2 h PG, while increased HDL-c could decrease AS risk via decreasing BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in blood glucose and lipids could cause change in BMI, which mediated the impacts of blood glucose and lipids on AS risk. These results highlight the importance and provide support for the early and comprehensive strategies of AS prevention and control.