Yellow fever virus maintenance in Trinidad and its dispersal throughout the Americas

Trinidad, like many other American regions, experiences repeated epizootics of yellow fever virus (YFV). However, it is unclear whether these result from in situ evolution (enzootic maintenance) or regular reintroduction of YFV from the South American mainland. To discriminate between these hypotheses, we carried out a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis of over 100 prM/E gene sequences sampled from 8 South American countries. These included newly sequenced isolates from the recent 2008-2009 Trinidad epizootic and isolates derived from mainland countries within the last decade. The results indicate that the most recent common ancestor of the 2008-2009 epizootic existed in Trinidad 4.2 years prior to 2009 (95% highest probability density [HPD], 0.5 to 9.0 years). Our data also suggest a Trinidad origin for the progenitor of the 1995 Trinidad epizootic and support in situ evolution of YFV between the 1979 and 1988-1989 Trinidad epizootics. Using the same phylogeographic approach, we also inferred the historical spread of YFV in the Americas. The results suggest a Brazilian origin for YFV in the Americas and an overall dispersal rate of 182 km/year (95% HPD, 52 to 462 km/year), with Brazil as the major source population for surrounding countries. There is also strong statistical support for epidemiological links between four Brazilian regions and other countries. In contrast, while there were well-supported epidemiological links within Peru, the only statistically supported external link was a relatively weak link with neighboring Bolivia. Lastly, we performed a complete analysis of the genome of a newly sequenced Trinidad 2009 isolate, the first complete genome for a genotype I YFV isolate.

Invasion and maintenance of dengue virus type 2 and type 4 in the Americas

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in the Americas in 1981, where it caused epidemics of dengue fever throughout the region. In the same year, the region’s first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was reported, caused by an Asian strain of dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that was distinct from the American subtype circulating previously. Despite the importance of these epidemics, little is known about the rates or determinants of viral spread among island and mainland populations or their directions of movement. We employed a Bayesian coalescent approach to investigate the transmission histories of DENV-2 and DENV-4 since their introduction in 1981 and a parsimony method to assess patterns of strain migration. For both viruses there was an initial invasion phase characterized by an exponential increase in the number of DENV lineages, after which levels of genetic diversity remained constant despite reported fluctuations in DENV-2 and DENV-4 activity. Strikingly, viral lineage numbers increased far more rapidly for DENV-4 than DENV-2, indicative of a more rapid rate of exponential population growth in DENV-4 or a higher rate of geographic dispersal, allowing this virus to move more effectively among localities. We propose that these contrasting dynamics may reflect underlying differences in patterns of host immunity. Despite continued gene flow along particular transmission routes, the overall extent of viral traffic was less than expected under panmixis. Hence, DENV in the Americas has a clear geographic structure that maintains viral diversity between outbreaks.