Symptomatic malaria enhances protection from reinfection with homologous Plasmodium falciparum parasites.

A signature remains elusive of naturally-acquired immunity against Plasmodium falciparum. We identified P. falciparum in a 14-month cohort of 239 people in Kenya, genotyped at immunogenic parasite targets expressed in the pre-erythrocytic (circumsporozoite protein, CSP) and blood (apical membrane antigen 1, AMA-1) stages, and classified into epitope type based on variants in the DV10, Th2R, and Th3R epitopes in CSP and the c1L region of AMA-1. Compared to asymptomatic index infections, symptomatic malaria was associated with reduced reinfection by parasites bearing homologous CSP-Th2R (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]:0.63; 95% CI:0.45-0.89; p = 0.008) CSP-Th3R (aHR:0.71; 95% CI:0.52-0.97; p = 0.033), and AMA-1 c1L (aHR:0.63; 95% CI:0.43-0.94; p = 0.022) epitope types. The association of symptomatic malaria with reduced hazard of homologous reinfection was strongest for rare epitope types. Symptomatic malaria provides more durable protection against reinfection with parasites bearing homologous epitope types. The phenotype represents a legible molecular epidemiologic signature of naturally-acquired immunity by which to identify new antigen targets.

Risk of Malaria Following Untreated Subpatent Plasmodium falciparum Infections: Results Over 4 Years From a Cohort in a High-Transmission Area in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: People with suspected malaria may harbor Plasmodium falciparum undetected by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). The impact of these subpatent infections on the risk of developing clinical malaria is not fully understood. METHODS: We analyzed subpatent P. falciparum infections using a longitudinal cohort in a high-transmission site in Kenya. Weighted Kaplan-Meier models estimated the risk difference (RD) for clinical malaria during the 60 days following a symptomatic subpatent infection. Stratum-specific estimates by age and transmission season assessed modification. RESULTS: Over 54 months, we observed 1128 symptomatic RDT-negative suspected malaria episodes, of which 400 (35.5%) harbored subpatent P. falciparum. Overall, the 60-day risk of developing clinical malaria was low following all episodes (8.6% [95% confidence interval, 6.7%-10.4%]). In the low-transmission season, the risk of clinical malaria was slightly higher in those with subpatent infection, whereas the opposite was true in the high-transmission season (low-transmission season RD, 2.3% [95% confidence interval, .4%-4.2%]; high-transmission season RD, -4.8% [-9.5% to -.05%]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing clinical malaria among people with undetected subpatent infections is low. A slightly elevated risk in the low-transmission season may merit alternate management, but RDTs identify clinically relevant infections in the high-transmission season.

How are maternal and fetal outcomes incorporated when measuring benefits of interventions in pregnancy? Findings from a systematic review of cost-utility analyses.

OBJECTIVE: Medical interventions used in pregnancy can affect the length and quality of life of both the pregnant person and fetus. The aim of this systematic review was to identify and describe the theoretical frameworks that underpin outcome measurement in cost-utility analyses of pregnancy interventions. METHODS: Searches were conducted in the Paediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) database (up to 2017), as well as Medline, Embase and EconLit (2017-2019). We included all cost-utility analyses of any intervention given during pregnancy, published in English. We conducted a narrative synthesis of: study design; outcome construction (life expectancy, quality adjustment, discount rate); and whether the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) was constructed using maternal or fetal outcomes. Where both outcomes were included, methods for combining them were extracted. RESULTS: We identified 127 cost-utility analyses in pregnancy, of which 89 reported QALYs and 38 DALYs. Outcomes were considered solely for the fetus in 59 studies (47%), solely for the pregnant person in 13 studies (10%), and for both in 49 studies (39%). The choice to include or exclude one or both sets of outcomes was not consistent within particular clinical areas. Where outcomes for both mother and baby were included, methods for combining these outcomes varied. Twenty-nine studies summed QALYs/DALYs for maternal and fetal outcomes, with no adjustment. The remaining 20 took a variety of approaches designed to weigh maternal and fetal outcomes differently. These include (1) treating fetal outcomes as a component of maternal quality of life, rather than (or in addition to) an independent individual health outcome; (2) treating the maternal-fetal dyad as a single entity and applying a single utility value to each combination of outcomes; and (3) assigning a shorter time horizon to fetal outcomes to reduce the weight of lifetime fetal outcomes. Each approach made different assumptions about the relative value of maternal and fetal health outcomes, demonstrating a lack of consistency and the need for guidance. CONCLUSION: Methods for capturing QALY/DALY outcomes in cost-utility analysis in pregnancy vary widely. This lack of consistency indicates a need for new methods to support the valuation of maternal and fetal health outcomes.

Detection of Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes by Molecular Surveillance, Kenya.

The Anopheles stephensi mosquito is an invasive malaria vector recently reported in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, and Ghana. The World Health Organization has called on countries in Africa to increase surveillance efforts to detect and report this vector and institute appropriate and effective control mechanisms. In Kenya, the Division of National Malaria Program conducted entomological surveillance in counties at risk for An. stephensi mosquito invasion. In addition, the Kenya Medical Research Institute conducted molecular surveillance of all sampled Anopheles mosquitoes from other studies to identify An. stephensi mosquitoes. We report the detection and confirmation of An. stephensi mosquitoes in Marsabit and Turkana Counties by using endpoint PCR and morphological and sequence identification. We demonstrate the urgent need for intensified entomological surveillance in all areas at risk for An. stephensi mosquito invasion, to clarify its occurrence and distribution and develop tailored approaches to prevent further spread.

A Pregnant Pause: Rethinking Economic Evaluation in Contraception and Pregnancy.

Pregnancy presents a unique challenge to economic evaluation, requiring methods that can account for both maternal and fetal outcomes. The ethical challenges to healthcare presented by pregnancy are well understood, but these have not yet been incorporated into cost-effectiveness approaches. Economic evaluations of pregnancy currently take an ad hoc approach to outcome valuation, opening the door to biased estimates and inconsistent resource allocation. We summarize the limitations of current economic evaluation methods and outline key areas for future work.

Experience and confidence in health technologies: evidence from malaria testing and treatment in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Low adoption of effective health technologies increases illness morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the case of malaria, effective tools such as malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-combination therapies (ACTs) are both under-used and used inappropriately. Individuals' confidence in RDTs and ACTs likely affects the uptake of these tools. METHODS: In a cohort of 36 households (280 individuals) in Western Kenya observed for 30 months starting in June 2017, we examined if experience with RDTs and ACTs changes people's beliefs about these technologies and how those beliefs affect treatment behavior. Household members requested a free RDT from the study team any time they suspected a malaria illness, and positive RDT results were treated with a free ACT. We conducted annual, monthly, and sick visit surveys to elicit beliefs about the accuracy of malaria RDT results and the effectiveness of ACTs. Beliefs were elicited on a 5-point Likert scale from "very unlikely" to "very likely." RESULTS: Over the study period, the percentage of survey respondents that said a hypothetical negative RDT result was "very likely" to be correct increased from approximately 55% to 75%. Controlling for initial beliefs, people who had been tested at least once with an RDT in the past year had 3.6 times higher odds (95% CI [1 1.718 7.679], P = 0.001) of saying a negative RDT was "very likely" to be correct. Confidence in testing was associated with treatment behavior: those who believed a negative RDT was "very likely" to be correct had 1.78 times higher odds (95% CI [1.079 2.934], P = 0.024) of adhering to a negative RDT result (by not taking ACTs) than those who were less certain about the accuracy of negative RDTs. Adherence to a negative test also affected subsequent beliefs: controlling for prior beliefs, those who had adhered to their previous test result had approximately twice the odds (OR = 2.19, 95% CI [1.661 2.904], P < 0.001) of saying that a hypothetical negative RDT was "very likely" to be correct compared to those who had not adhered. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that greater experience with RDTs can not only increase people's confidence in their accuracy but also improve adherence to the test result.

Exposure to Diverse Plasmodium falciparum Genotypes Shapes the Risk of Symptomatic Malaria in Incident and Persistent Infections: A Longitudinal Molecular Epidemiologic Study in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Repeated exposure to malaria infections could protect against symptomatic progression as people develop adaptive immunity to infections acquired over time. METHODS: We investigated how new, recurrent, and persistent Plasmodium falciparum infections were associated with the odds of developing symptomatic compared with asymptomatic malaria. Using a 14-month longitudinal cohort in Western Kenya, we used amplicon deep sequencing of 2 polymorphic genes (pfama1 and pfcsp) to assess overlap of parasite genotypes (represented by haplotypes) acquired within an individual's successive infections. We hypothesized infections with novel haplotypes would increase the odds of symptomatic malaria. RESULTS: After excluding initial infections, we observed 534 asymptomatic and 88 symptomatic infections across 186 people. We detected 109 pfcsp haplotypes, and each infection was classified as harboring novel, recurrent, or persistent haplotypes. Incident infections with only new haplotypes had higher odds of symptomatic malaria when compared with infections with only recurrent haplotypes [odds ratio (OR): 3.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-8.78], but infections with both new and recurrent haplotypes (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.15-2.65) did not. Assessing persistent infections, those with mixed (persistent with new or recurrent) haplotypes (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.21-2.75) had no association with symptomatic malaria compared with infections with only persistent haplotypes. Results were similar for pfama1. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm that incident infections with only novel haplotypes were associated with increased odds of symptomatic malaria compared with infections with only recurrent haplotypes but this relationship was not seen when haplotypes persisted over time in consecutive infections.

Mosquito Exposure and Malaria Morbidity: A Microlevel Analysis of Household Mosquito Populations and Malaria in a Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria morbidity is highly overdispersed in the population. Fine-scale differences in mosquito exposure may partially explain this heterogeneity in individual malaria outcomes. METHODS: In 38 households we explored the effect of household-level mosquito exposure and individual insecticide-treated net (ITN) use on relative risk (RR) of confirmed malaria. We conducted monthly active surveillance (n = 254; 2624 person-months) and weekly mosquito collection (2092 household-days of collection), and used molecular techniques to confirm human blood feeding and exposure to infectious mosquitoes. RESULTS: Of 1494 female Anopheles (89.8% Anopheles gambiae sensu lato), 88.3% were fed, 51.9% had a human blood meal, and 9.2% were sporozoite infected. In total, 168 laboratory-confirmed malaria episodes were reported (incidence rate 0.064 episodes per person-month at risk; 95% confidence interval [CI], .055-.074). Malaria risk was directly associated with exposure to sporozoite-infected mosquitoes (RR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.11-1.38). No direct effect was measured between ITN use and malaria morbidity; however, ITN use did moderate the effect of mosquito exposure on morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria risk increases linearly with vector density and feeding success for persons with low ITN use. In contrast, malaria risk among high ITN users is consistently low and insensitive to variation in mosquito exposure.

Why do hospital prescribers continue antibiotics when it is safe to stop? Results of a choice experiment survey.

BACKGROUND: Deciding whether to discontinue antibiotics at early review is a cornerstone of hospital antimicrobial stewardship practice worldwide. In England, this approach is described in government guidance ('Start Smart then Focus'). However, < 10% of hospital antibiotic prescriptions are discontinued at review, despite evidence that 20-30% could be discontinued safely. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of factors influencing prescriber decision-making at review. METHODS: We conducted an online choice experiment, a survey method to elicit preferences. Acute/general hospital prescribers in England were asked if they would continue or discontinue antibiotic treatment in 15 hypothetical scenarios. Scenarios were described according to six attributes, including patients' presenting symptoms and whether discontinuation would conflict with local prescribing guidelines. Respondents' choices were analysed using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred respondents completed the survey. Respondents were more likely to continue antibiotics when discontinuation would 'strongly conflict' with local guidelines (average marginal effect (AME) on the probability of continuing + 0.194 (p < 0.001)), when presenting symptoms more clearly indicated antibiotics (AME of urinary tract infection symptoms + 0.173 (p < 0.001) versus unclear symptoms) and when patients had severe frailty/comorbidities (AME = + 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Respondents were less likely to continue antibiotics when under no external pressure to continue (AME = - 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Decisions were also influenced by the risks to patient health of continuing/discontinuing antibiotic treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Guidelines that conflict with antibiotic discontinuation (e.g. pre-specify fixed durations) may discourage safe discontinuation at review. In contrast, guidelines conditional on patient factors/treatment response could help hospital prescribers discontinue antibiotics if diagnostic information suggesting they are no longer needed is available.

Is stratification testing for treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations cost-effective in primary care? an early cost-utility analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who experience acute exacerbations usually require treatment with oral steroids or antibiotics, depending on the etiology of the exacerbation. Current management is based on clinician's assessment and judgement, which lacks diagnostic accuracy and results in overtreatment. A test to guide these decisions in primary care is in development. We developed an early decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this treatment stratification test in the primary care setting in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A combined decision tree and Markov model was developed of COPD progression and the exacerbation care pathway. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to guide technology development and inform evidence generation requirements. RESULTS: The base case test strategy cost GBP 423 (USD 542) less and resulted in a health gain of 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years per patient compared with not testing. Testing reduced antibiotic prescriptions by 30 percent, potentially lowering the risk of antimicrobial resistance developing. In sensitivity analysis, the result depended on the clinical effects of treating patients according to the test result, as opposed to treating according to clinical judgement alone, for which there is limited evidence. The results were less sensitive to the accuracy of the test. CONCLUSIONS: Testing may be cost-saving in primary care, but this requires robust evidence on whether test-guided treatment is effective. High quality evidence on the clinical utility of testing is required for early modeling of diagnostic tests generally.

Review and critical appraisal of studies mapping from quality of life or clinical measures to EQ-5D: an online database and application of the MAPS statement.

BACKGROUND: The Health Economics Research Centre (HERC) Database of Mapping Studies was established in 2013, based on a systematic review of studies developing mapping algorithms predicting EQ-5D. The Mapping onto Preference-based measures reporting Standards (MAPS) statement was published in 2015 to improve reporting of mapping studies. We aimed to update the systematic review and assess the extent to which recently-published studies mapping condition-specific quality of life or clinical measures to the EQ-5D follow the guidelines published in the MAPS Reporting Statement. METHODS: A published systematic review was updated using the original inclusion criteria to include studies published by December 2016. We included studies reporting novel algorithms mapping from any clinical measure or patient-reported quality of life measure to either the EQ-5D-3L or EQ-5D-5L. Titles and abstracts of all identified studies and the full text of papers published in 2016 were assessed against the MAPS checklist. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 144 mapping studies reporting 190 algorithms mapping from 110 different source instruments to EQ-5D. Of the 17 studies published in 2016, nine (53%) had titles that followed the MAPS statement guidance, although only two (12%) had abstracts that fully addressed all MAPS items. When the full text of these papers was assessed against the complete MAPS checklist, only two studies (12%) were found to fulfil or partly fulfil all criteria. Of the 141 papers (across all years) that included abstracts, the items on the MAPS statement checklist that were fulfilled by the largest number of studies comprised having a structured abstract (95%) and describing target instruments (91%) and source instruments (88%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of published mapping studies continues to increase. Our updated database provides a convenient way to identify mapping studies for use in cost-utility analysis. Most recent studies do not fully address all items on the MAPS checklist.

Preference-based measures to obtain health state utility values for use in economic evaluations with child-based populations: a review and UK-based focus group assessment of patient and parent choices.

BACKGROUND: No current guidance is available in the UK on the choice of preference-based measure (PBM) that should be used in obtaining health-related quality of life from children. The aim of this study is to review the current usage of PBMs for obtaining health state utility values in child and adolescent populations, and to obtain information on patient and parent-proxy respondent preferences in completing PBMs in the UK. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to determine which instrument is most frequently used for child-based economic evaluations and whether child or proxy responses are used. Instruments were compared on dimensions, severity levels, elicitation and valuation methods, availability of value sets and validation studies, and the range of utility values generated. Additionally, a series of focus groups of parents and young people (11-20 years) were convened to determine patient and proxy preferences. RESULTS: Five PBMs suitable for child populations were identified, although only the Health Utilities Index 2 (HUI2) and Child Heath Utility 9D (CHU-9D) have UK value sets. 45 papers used PBMs in this population, but many used non-child-specific PBMs. Most respondents were parent proxies, even in adolescent populations. Reported missing data ranged from 0.5 to 49.3%. The focus groups reported their experiences with the EQ-5D-Y and CHU-9D. Both the young persons' group and parent/proxy groups felt that the CHU-9D was more comprehensive but may be harder for a proxy to complete. Some younger children had difficulty understanding the CHU-9D questions, but the young persons' group nonetheless preferred responding directly. CONCLUSION: The use of PBMs in child populations is increasing, but many studies use PBMs that do not have appropriate value sets. Parent proxies are the most common respondents, but the focus group responses suggest it would be preferred, and may be more informative, for older children to self-report or for child-parent dyads to respond.

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological review of health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. METHODS: We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. RESULTS: The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests.

'A bite before bed': exposure to malaria vectors outside the times of net use in the highlands of western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The human population in the highlands of Nyanza Province, western Kenya, is subject to sporadic epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) are used widely in this area. These interventions are most effective when Anopheles rest and feed indoors and when biting occurs at times when individuals use LLINs. It is therefore important to test the current assumption of vector feeding preferences, and late night feeding times, in order to estimate the extent to which LLINs protect the inhabitants from vector bites. METHODS: Mosquito collections were made for six consecutive nights each month between June 2011 and May 2012. CDC light-traps were set next to occupied LLINs inside and outside randomly selected houses and emptied hourly. The net usage of residents, their hours of house entry and exit and times of sleeping were recorded and the individual hourly exposure to vectors indoors and outdoors was calculated. Using these data, the true protective efficacy of nets (P*), for this population was estimated, and compared between genders, age groups and from month to month. RESULTS: Primary vector species (Anopheles funestus s.l. and Anopheles arabiensis) were more likely to feed indoors but the secondary vector Anopheles coustani demonstrated exophagic behaviour (p < 0.05). A rise in vector biting activity was recorded at 19:30 outdoors and 18:30 indoors. Individuals using LLINs experienced a moderate reduction in their overall exposure to malaria vectors from 1.3 to 0.47 bites per night. The P* for the population over the study period was calculated as 51% and varied significantly with age and season (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, LLINs offered the local population partial protection against malaria vector bites. It is likely that P* would be estimated to be greater if the overall suppression of the local vector population due to widespread community net use could be taken into account. However, the overlap of early biting habit of vectors and human activity in this region indicates that additional methods of vector control are required to limit transmission. Regular surveillance of both vector behaviour and domestic human-behaviour patterns would assist the planning of future control interventions in this region.

Research inefficiencies in external validation studies of the Framingham Wilson coronary heart disease risk rule: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: External validation studies create evidence about a clinical prediction rule's (CPR's) generalizability by evaluating and updating the CPR in populations different from those used in the derivation, and also by contributing to estimating its overall performance when meta-analysed in a systematic review. While most cardiovascular CPRs do not have any external validation, some CPRs have been externally validated repeatedly. Hence, we examined whether external validation studies of the Framingham Wilson coronary heart disease (CHD) risk rule contributed to generating evidence to their full potential. METHODS: A forward citation search of the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule's derivation study was conducted to identify studies that evaluated the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule in different populations. For external validation studies of the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule, we examined whether authors updated the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule when it performed poorly. We also assessed the contribution of external validation studies to understanding the Predicted/Observed (P/O) event ratio and c statistic of the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule. RESULTS: We identified 98 studies that evaluated the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule; 40 of which were external validation studies. Of these 40 studies, 27 (67.5%) concluded the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule performed poorly but did not update it. Of 23 external validation studies conducted with data that could be included in meta-analyses, 13 (56.5%) could not fully contribute to the meta-analyses of P/O ratio and/or c statistic because these performance measures were neither reported nor could be calculated from provided data. DISCUSSION: Most external validation studies failed to generate evidence about the Framingham Wilson CHD risk rule's generalizability to their full potential. Researchers might increase the value of external validation studies by presenting all relevant performance measures and by updating the CPR when it performs poorly.

bistro: An R package for vector bloodmeal identification by short tandem repeat overlap.

Measuring vector-human contact in a natural setting can inform precise targeting of interventions to interrupt transmission of vector-borne diseases. One approach is to directly match human DNA in vector bloodmeals to the individuals who were bitten using genotype panels of discriminative short tandem repeats (STRs). Existing methods for matching STR profiles in bloodmeals to the people bitten preclude the ability to match most incomplete profiles and multi-source bloodmeals to bitten individuals.We developed bistro, an R package that implements 3 preexisting STR matching methods as well as the package's namesake, bistro, a new algorithm described here. bistro employs forensic analysis methods to calculate likelihood ratios and match human STR profiles in bloodmeals to people using a dynamic threshold. We evaluated the algorithm's accuracy and compared it to existing matching approaches using a publicly-available panel of 188 single-source and 100 multi-source samples containing DNA from 50 known human sources. Then we applied it to match 777 newly field-collected mosquito bloodmeals to a database of 645 people.The R package implements four STR matching algorithms in user-friendly functions with clear documentation. bistro correctly matched 99% (187/188) of profiles in single-source samples, and 62% (224/359) of profiles from multi-source samples, resulting in a sensitivity of 0.75 (vs < 0.51 for other algorithms). The specificity of bistro was 0.9998 (vs. 1 for other algorithms). Furthermore, bistro identified 79% (720/906) of all possible matches for field-derived mosquitoes, yielding 1.4x more matches than existing algorithms.bistro identifies more correct bloodmeal-human matches than existing approaches, enabling more accurate and robust analyses of vector-human contact in natural settings. The bistro R package and corresponding documentation allow for straightforward uptake of this algorithm by others.

Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans and mosquitoes influence natural Anopheline biting behavior and transmission.

The human infectious reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum is governed by transmission efficiency during vector-human contact and mosquito biting preferences. Understanding biting bias in a natural setting can help target interventions to interrupt transmission. In a 15-month cohort in western Kenya, we detected P. falciparum in indoor-resting Anopheles and human blood samples by qPCR and matched mosquito bloodmeals to cohort participants using short-tandem repeat genotyping. Using risk factor analyses and discrete choice models, we assessed mosquito biting behavior with respect to parasite transmission. Biting was highly unequal; 20% of people received 86% of bites. Biting rates were higher on males (biting rate ratio (BRR): 1.68; CI: 1.28-2.19), children 5-15 years (BRR: 1.49; CI: 1.13-1.98), and P. falciparum-infected individuals (BRR: 1.25; CI: 1.01-1.55). In aggregate, P. falciparum-infected school-age (5-15 years) boys accounted for 50% of bites potentially leading to onward transmission and had an entomological inoculation rate 6.4x higher than any other group. Additionally, infectious mosquitoes were nearly 3x more likely than non-infectious mosquitoes to bite P. falciparum-infected individuals (relative risk ratio 2.76, 95% CI 1.65-4.61). Thus, persistent P. falciparum transmission was characterized by disproportionate onward transmission from school-age boys and by the preference of infected mosquitoes to feed upon infected people.

Characterizing mobility patterns and malaria risk factors in semi-nomadic populations of Northern Kenya.

While many studies have characterized mobility patterns and disease dynamics of settled populations, few have focused on more mobile populations. Highly mobile groups are often at higher disease risk due to their regular movement that may increase the variability of their environments, reduce their access to health care, and limit the number of intervention strategies suitable for their lifestyles. Quantifying the movements and their associated disease risks will be key to developing interventions more suitable for mobile populations. Turkana, Kenya is an ideal setting to characterize these relationships. While the vast, semi-arid county has a large mobile population (>60%) and was recently shown to have endemic malaria, the relationship between mobility and malaria risk in this region has not yet been defined. Here, we worked with 250 semi-nomadic households from four communities in Central Turkana to 1) characterize mobility patterns of travelers and 2) test the hypothesis that semi-nomadic individuals are at greater risk of malaria exposure when migrating with their herds than when staying at their semi-permanent settlements. Participants provided medical and travel histories, demographics, and a dried blood spot for malaria testing before and after the travel period. Further, a subset of travelers was given GPS loggers to document their routes. Four travel patterns emerged from the logger data, Long Term, Transient, Day trip, and Static, with only Long Term and Transient trips being associated with malaria cases detected in individuals who carried GPS devices. After completing their trips, travelers had a higher prevalence of malaria than those who remained at the household (9.2% vs 4.4%), regardless of gender and age. These findings highlight the need to develop intervention strategies amenable to mobile lifestyles that can ultimately help prevent the transmission of malaria.

Relationship between malaria vector survival, infectivity and insecticide treated net use in western Kenya.

Background: Much effort and resources have been invested to control malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it remains a major public health problem. For the disease to be transmitted from one person to another, the female Anopheles vector must survive 10-14 days following an infective bite for the Plasmodiumgametocytes to develop into infectious sporozoites which can be transmitted to the next person during a bloodmeal. The goal of this investigation was to assess factors associated with wild-caught Anopheles survival and infection following host-seeking and indoor resting. Methods: The study was conducted in a longitudinal cohort of 75 households in 5 villages including a total of 755 household members in Bungoma County, Kenya. Monthly adult mosquito collection was conducted by attenuated aspiration in all the enrolled households, and the mosquitoes were reared in the insectary for 7 days. The daily mortality rate was determined through day 7, and all the mosquitoes were morphologically identified. Female Anopheline mosquitoes were dissected, and species-level members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were resolved by molecular methods. The abdomen for all samples were processed for P. falciparum detection by PCR. Results: Within a period of 25 months, the total number of culex and Anopheles mosquitoes collected indoors were 12,843 and 712 respectively. Anopheles gambiaeand Anopheles funestus were the major vectors though their population varied between different villages. 61.2% (n=436/712) of the Anopheles species survived up to day 7 with the lowest mortality rate recorded on day 5 of captivity. The survival rate also varied between the different Anophelesspecies. 683 of 712 mosquito abdomens were tested for P. falciparumdetection and 7.8% (53/683) tested positive for P. falciparum with An. funestus having a higher (10%) prevalence than An. gambaie s.s.(6.0%, p=0.095, Pearson Chi square test). The proportion of household members sleeping under a bednet the night before mosquito collection varied across time and village. An. funestus survival times were refractory to household ITN coverage and An. gambaie s.s. survival was reduced only under very high (>95%) ITN coverage. Conclusion: Despite ITN coverage, mosquitoes still acquired bloodmeals and P. falciparum infections. Survival differed across species and was inversely correlated with high ITN exposure in the household, but not oocyst development.

A cluster-randomized trial of client and provider-directed financial interventions to align incentives with appropriate case management in retail medicine outlets: Results of the TESTsmART Trial in western Kenya.

ACTs are responsible for a substantial proportion of the global reduction in malaria mortality over the last ten years, made possible by publicly-funded subsidies making these drugs accessible and affordable in the private sector. However, inexpensive ACTs available in retail outlets have contributed substantially to overconsumption. We test an innovative, scalable strategy to target ACT-subsidies to clients with a confirmatory diagnosis. We supported malaria testing(mRDTs) in 39 medicine outlets in western Kenya, randomized to three study arms; control arm offering subsidized mRDT testing (0.4USD), client-directed intervention where all clients who received a positive RDT at the outlet were eligible for a free (fully-subsidized) ACT, and a combined client and provider directed intervention where clients with a positive RDT were eligible for free ACT and outlets received 0.1USD for every RDT performed. Our primary outcome was the proportion of ACT dispensed to individuals with a positive diagnostic test. Secondary outcomes included proportion of clients tested at the outlet and adherence to diagnostic test results. 43% of clients chose to test at the outlet. Test results informed treatment decisions, resulting in targeting of ACTs to confirmed malaria cases- 25.3% of test-negative clients purchased an ACT compared to 75% of untested clients. Client-directed and client+provider-directed interventions did not offer further improvements, compared to the control arm, in testing rates(RD = 0.09, 95%CI:-0.08,0.26) or dispensing of ACTs to test-positive clients(RD = 0.01,95% CI:-0.14, 0.16). Clients were often unaware of the price they paid for the ACT leading to uncertainty in whether the ACT subsidy was passed on to the client. This uncertainty undermines our ability to definitively conclude that client-directed subsidies are not effective for improving testing and appropriate treatment. We conclude that mRDTs could reduce ACT overconsumption in the private retail sector, but incentive structures are difficult to scale and their value to private providers is uncertain. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04428307.