Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Effect of an Educational Intervention for Primary Stroke Risk Reduction in Ghana and Nigeria: Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Using tailored mobile health interventions to improve global vascular risk awareness and control is yet to be investigated for primary stroke prevention in Africa. METHODS: This 2-arm pilot randomized controlled trial involved 100 stroke-free adults with at least 2 vascular risk factors for stroke. Eligible participants were assigned randomly to a control arm offering 1-time counseling (n=50) or a 2-month educational intervention arm (n=50) comprising a stroke video and riskometer app aimed at improving stroke risk factor awareness and health-seeking behavioral modification to control total vascular risk. Reduction in total stroke risk score was the primary outcome while feasibility and process measures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: All enrolled participants completed the 2-month follow-up (retention rate=100%). The mean (SD) age of participants was 59.5 (±12.5) years, 38% were males. The mean change in stroke risk score at 2 months was -11.9% (±14.2) in the intervention arm versus -1.2% (±9.1) in the control arm, P=0.0001. Stroke risk awareness improved by 16.1% (±24.7) in the intervention arm versus 8.9% (±24.7) in the control arm, P=0.08. The intervention arm had 11.1 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure compared with 4.8 mm Hg reduction in the control arm. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention demonstrated a positive signal of effect over a 2-month period. A definitive clinical trial with a longer duration of follow-up is warranted on the premise of these promising findings from this pilot randomized clinical trial. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT05619406.

Description of the design of a mixed-methods study to assess the burden and determinants of malaria transmission for tailoring of interventions (microstratification) in Ibadan and Kano metropolis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urbanization in Nigerian cities may lead to localized variations in malaria transmission, particularly with a higher burden in informal settlements and slums. However, there is a lack of available data to quantify the variations in transmission risk at the city level and inform the selection of appropriate interventions. To bridge this gap, field studies will be undertaken in Ibadan and Kano, two major Nigerian cities. These studies will involve a blend of cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological research, coupled with longitudinal entomological studies. The primary objective is to gain insights into the variation of malaria risk at the smallest administrative units, known as wards, within these cities. METHODS/RESULTS: The findings will contribute to the tailoring of interventions as part of Nigeria's National Malaria Strategic Plan. The study design incorporates a combination of model-based clustering and on-site visits for ground-truthing, enabling the identification of environmental archetypes at the ward-level to establish the study's framework. Furthermore, community participatory approaches will be utilized to refine study instruments and sampling strategies. The data gathered through cross-sectional and longitudinal studies will contribute to an enhanced understanding of malaria risk in the metropolises of Kano and Ibadan. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlines pioneering field study methods aimed at collecting data to inform the tailoring of malaria interventions in urban settings. The integration of multiple study types will provide valuable data for mapping malaria risk and comprehending the underlying determinants. Given the importance of location-specific data for microstratification, this study presents a systematic process and provides adaptable tools that can be employed in cities with limited data availability.

Permutation-based multiple testing corrections for P $$ P $$ -values and confidence intervals for cluster randomized trials.

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive P-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomized trials with multiple outcomes. There are few methods for P-value corrections and deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano and Wolf and adapt them to cluster randomized trial inference using permutation-based methods with different test statistics. We develop a novel search procedure for confidence set limits using permutation tests to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We conduct a simulation-based study to compare family-wise error rates, coverage of confidence sets, and the efficiency of each procedure in comparison to no correction using both model-based standard errors and permutation tests. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures and is more efficient than the other methods in a simulation-based study. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.

Non-cigarette tobacco use and stroke among West Africans: evidence from the SIREN study.

INTRODUCTION: Non-cigarette tobacco (NCT) represents a form of tobacco use with a misperceived significance in chronic disease events. Whether NCT use is sufficient to promote stroke events, especially among Africans, is yet to be understood. This study assessed the relationship between NCT use and stroke among indigenous Africans. METHODS: A total of 7,617 respondents (NCT users: 41 vs. non-NCT: 7576) from the Stroke Investigation Research and Educational Network study were included in the current analysis. NCT use was defined as self-reported use of smoked (cigars or piper) or smokeless (snuff or chewed) tobacco in the past year preceding stroke events. Stroke was defined based on clinical presentation and confirmed with a cranial CT/MRI. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the relationship between NCT and stroke at p<0.05. RESULTS: Out of the 41 (0.54%) who reported NCT use, 27 (65.9%) reported using smokeless NCT. NCT users were older than non-smokers (62.8±15.7 vs 57.7±14.8 years). Overall, NCT use was associated with first-ever stroke (OR: 2.08; 95%CI: 1.02, 4.23) in the entire sample. Notably, smokeless NCT use was independently associated with higher odds of stroke (OR: 2.74; 95%CI: 1.15, 6.54), but smoked NCT use (OR: 0.16; 95%CI: 0.02, 1.63) presented a statistically insignificant association after adjusting for hypertension and other covariates. CONCLUSIONS: NCT use was associated with higher odds of stroke, and public health interventions targeting NCT use might be promising in reducing the burden of stroke among indigenous Africans. IMPLICATIONS: A detailed understanding of the relationship between NCT use and stroke will likely inform well-articulated policy guidance to promote evidence-based recommendations for public health prevention and management of stroke on the African continent.

Organized multi-disciplinary stroke team care improves acute stroke outcomes in resource limited settings; Results of a retrospective study from a Nigerian tertiary hospital.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the impact of organized stroke multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) on outcomes in Africa is sparse. AIM: To compare stroke outcomes, before and after the establishment (September 16, 2016) of a pioneer MDT at a tertiary hospital in southern Nigeria. METHODS: Using a retrospective, observational study design, the in-patient record of all stroke patients admitted between September 2014 to September 2018 was retrieved and rigorously reviewed. 155 patients seen 2 years before the MDT were compared with 169 stroke patients seen 2 years after the MDT. Stroke severity at admission and functioning at discharge were assessed using the Stroke Levity Scale (SLS) and the modified Rankin scale (mRS). RESULTS: Mean ages (in years) were 60 pre-MDT vs 59.57 post MDT (p = 0.754). There were more males, 51% pre-MDT vs 54.2% post MDT (p = 0.565). SLS and mRS were not significantly different; severe SLS and mRS pre-MDT, 52.9% vs post-MDT, 49.4% (p = 0.727) and pre-MDT 19.4% vs post-MDT 19.5% (p = 0.685) respectively. More post-MDT patients were discharged alive, pre-MDT,56.8% vs 79.2% post MDT (p < 0.001); had swallow tests, pre-MDT 9.23% vs post-MDT 33.5% (p < 0.001); on secondary prevention, pre-MDT 67.7% vs post-MDT 78.9% (p = 0.023); had more clinic visits, pre-MDT,0.7% vs post-MDT 38.3% (p < 0.001). MDT was independently associated with lower in-hospital mortality on multivariable regression, adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% Confidence interval CI) 0.17 (0.09-0.32). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that an organized MDT may improve acute outcomes and reduce mortality in resource constrained settings where there may be no stroke units. These findings need further prospective validation.

Knowledge and perspectives of community members on risk assessment for stroke prevention using mobile health approaches in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the knowledge of community dwelling adults on stroke risk and their willingness to use mobile health (mHealth) technology in assessing their stroke risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among adults (≥18 years old) using survey questionnaires designed by neurologists and health promotion experts and administered by trained study staff. Logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with receptivity toward knowing individual stroke risk score and willingness to use a mobile application (App) to assess stroke risk. RESULTS: The survey was administered to 486 participants in Nigeria, with a mean age of 47.4 ± 15.5 years, comprising 53.5% females. Up to 84% of participants wanted to know their risk for developing stroke but only 29.6% of respondents had ever previously had their stroke risk assessed. Factors associated with willingness to know stroke risk were age [aOR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.95 - 0.99)], and Hausa tribe [16.68 (2.16 - 128.92)]. Up to 66% of participants wanted to know their immediate risk of stroke, compared with 6.6% and 2.1% who wanted to know their 5-year or 10-year future stroke risks respectively. Regarding locations, participants preferred stroke risk assessment to be performed at a health facility, at home by health professional, on their own using mHealth (stroke risk calculator application), or at communal gatherings (decreasing order). About 70% specifically wished to learn about their stroke risk via an mHealth application. CONCLUSIONS: Community dwelling Nigerians wanted to know their immediate risk of stroke using digital platforms, such as a mobile phone stroke risk calculator application. Clinical trials are needed to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy for primary prevention of stroke in sub-Saharan African communities.

Are there differences in perceptions, preferences and attitudes towards disclosure of genetic testing for Stroke? A qualitative study among stroke-free SIREN-SIBS genomics study participants.

OBJECTIVE: This study explored perceptions, preferences and attitudes towards disclosure of genetic testing results for stroke among stroke-free controls (and their family members) in the SIREN-SIBS Genomics Study, healthcare providers and policymakers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a qualitative thematic analysis of key informant interviews with 61 participants recruited from community advisory boards (30) and health care providers (31) across seven sites in Nigeria and Ghana. RESULTS: Major findings illustrate differences in the knowledge of genetic testing with superior knowledge among health care professionals. Relatives and religious leaders were opined as the best to receive the disclosure as they would be able to break the news to the patient in a culturally sensitive manner to reduce the likely resultant emotional outburst. Poor level of awareness of national guidelines for disclosing genetic results exist. Key facilitating factors for disclosure are education, enabling environment, involvement of religious and community leaders, campaigns, and possible treatment options. Disclosure inhibitors include inadequate information, fear of marital break-up or family displacement, fear of stigmatization, fear of isolation, religious beliefs, health worker attitude, and lack of preparedness to accept results. CONCLUSIONS: These necessitate culturally sensitive interventions for continuing education, increased awareness and sustained engagement to equip all stakeholders in genetic testing disclosure process.

Proximate determinants and decomposition of changes in fertility levels across Nigeria regions: Evidence from Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, 2003-2018.

There is disparity in fertility level across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Deeper uunderstanding about the drivers of fertility trends are necessary to prioritize zonal specific strategies for fertility reduction in Nigeria. Thus, this study examined the proximate determinants (PDs) of fertility and decomposed the change in its level across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2018 were analyzed. Fertility data were based on the report of full birth history from women of reproductive age. The Revised Bongaarts framework was used to estimate PDs and fertility levels. The contribution of each PDs to the observed changes in fertility levels was quantified using Das Gupta's five- factor decomposition method. The Total fertility rate (TFR) in 2003 and 2008 across the zones are South-South (5.04 vs 4.36), South-West (4.88 vs 4.26), North West (7.25 vs 6.85), North East (6.87 vs 6.54), North Central (5.72 vs 5.48), South East (5.06 vs 4.86), Nigeria (6.00 vs 5.59). Across the zones, there was a change in the fertility inhibiting effect of Contraception (Cc) between 2003 and 2018. The fertility inhibiting effect of Postpartum Infecundability (Ci) and Abortion was the highest and smallest respectively across the zones. Delayed sexual exposure (Cm) and contraceptive use (Cc) contributed the most to the change across the regions. The percentage contribution of Cm in South-South, South West, and South East was 87.04%, 52.89%, and 172.85% respectively. Furthermore, most of the fertility change observed in North Central was attributable to Cc. Abortion index was not an important inhibiting factor of fertility in Nigeria. Delayed sexual exposure and contraceptive use accounted for the largest change observed in fertility levels across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria between 2003 and 2018. Strategies that promote delayed sexual exposure, contraceptive use and breast feeding practices will enhance fertility transition in Nigeria.

Risk Factor Characterization of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes Among West Africans.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To identify the qualitative and quantitative contributions of conventional risk factors for occurrence of ischemic stroke and its key pathophysiologic subtypes among West Africans. METHODS: The SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with ischemic stroke who were etiologically subtyped using the A-S-C-O-D classification into atherosclerosis, small-vessel occlusion, cardiac pathology, other causes, and dissection. Controls were age- and gender-matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors were performed. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI. RESULTS: There were 2431 ischemic stroke case and stroke-free control pairs with respective mean ages of 62.2±14.0 versus 60.9±13.7 years. There were 1024 (42.1%) small vessel occlusions, 427 (17.6%) large-artery atherosclerosis, 258 (10.6%) cardio-embolic, 3 (0.1%) carotid dissections, and 719 (29.6%) undetermined/other causes. The adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for the 8 dominant risk factors for ischemic stroke were hypertension, 10.34 (6.91-15.45); dyslipidemia, 5.16 (3.78-7.03); diabetes, 3.44 (2.60-4.56); low green vegetable consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); red meat consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); cardiac disease, 1.88 (1.22-2.90); monthly income $100 or more, 1.72 (1.24-2.39); and psychosocial stress, 1.62 (1.18-2.21). Hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes were confluent factors shared by small-vessel, large-vessel and cardio-embolic subtypes. Stroke cases and stroke-free controls had a mean of 5.3±1.5 versus 3.2±1.0 adverse cardio-metabolic risk factors respectively (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional vascular risk factors demonstrate important differential effect sizes with pathophysiologic, clinical and preventative implications on the occurrence of ischemic stroke among indigenous West Africans.

African Rigorous Innovative Stroke Epidemiological Surveillance: Protocol for a Community-Based Mobile-Health Study.

Despite projections of stroke being a leading cause of mortality in Africa, reliable estimates of stroke burden on the continent using rigorous methods are not available. We aimed to implement a mobile-Health community-based interactive Stroke Information and Surveillance System to sustainably measure stroke burden and improve stroke health literacy and outcomes in urban and rural sites in Nigeria. African Rigorous Innovative Stroke Epidemiological Surveillance (ARISES) is an observational cohort study, which will be conducted in urban (Ibadan North LGA Ward 3) and rural (Ibarapa Central LGA) sites with a combined base population of over 80,000 people. The study will use a consultative approach to establish an mHealth-based Stroke Information and Surveillance System comprising a Stroke Alert System and a Stroke Finding System. These systems will enable the community to report stroke events and the research team/health workers find stroke cases using phone calls, short message service, and Voice Over Internet Protocols (VoIP). We will update community household data and geo-locate all households. Over the 5 years of the study, the system will collect information on stroke events and educate the community about this disease. Reported stroke cases will be clinically adjudicated at home and in prespecified health facilities. Baseline and endline community surveys will be conducted to assess stroke occurrence and other important study variables. The proportion of strokes alerted and found will be determined over the study period. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews will be conducted to understand community stroke literacy and perspectives. The study will also assess any impact of these efforts on time from stroke onset to referral, community uptake of orthodox health services for stroke patients. ARISES is anticipated to establish proof of concept about using mHealth for stroke surveillance in Africa. The potential impact of the SISS on improving patient outcomes will also be determined.

Pre-Stroke Depression in Ghana and Nigeria: Prevalence, Predictors and Association With Poststroke Depression.

OBJECTIVES: Depression is a risk factor for stroke. There is a knowledge gap on the predictors of prestroke depression in stroke survivors living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated prevalence and predictors of prestroke depression, as well as its association with poststroke depression (PSD) in the largest study of stroke in Africa. METHODS: We evaluated information collected as part of the Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) study, a multicentre, case-control study conducted at 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Prestroke depression status was ascertained in stroke survivors using a validated self-report tool, while PSD was assessed using a stroke specific screening tool for depression ("HRQOLISP-E"). Independent associations were investigated using complementary log-log regression and binary logit models. RESULTS: Among 1,977 participants, prestroke depression was found in 141 (7.1%). In multivariate analyses, prestroke depression was significantly associated with tachycardia (OR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.37-3.56) and low consumption of green leafy vegetables (OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.12-3.24). Forty-one (29.1%) of the prestroke depression sub-sample developed PSD. However, prestroke depression was not significantly associated with PSD. CONCLUSION: The findings should energize before-the-stroke identification and prioritization of limited treatment resources in LMICs to persons with depression who have multiple, additional, risks of stroke.

Differential associations between pre-diabetes, diabetes and stroke occurrence among West Africans.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data from Africa on the burden and associations between pre-diabetes (pre-DM), diabetes mellitus (DM) and stroke occurrence in a region experiencing a profound rise in stroke burden. PURPOSE: To characterize the associations between stroke and dysglycemic status among West Africans. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Controls were age-and-gender matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular factors were performed. Pre-diabetes was defined as HBA1c of 5.7%-6.4% or Fasting blood glucose (FBG) 5.6-7.0 mmol/L and DM as HBA1c >6.5% or FBG>7.0 mmol/L. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval. RESULTS: Among 2,935 stroke cases the mean age was 60.0 ± 14.2 years with 55.2% being males. By glycemic status, 931 (31.7%) were euglycemic, 633 (21.6%) had Pre-diabetes and 1371 (46.7%) had DM. Of the age- and sex-matched stroke-free controls 69.2% were euglycemic, 13.3% had pre-DM and 17.5% had DM. Pre-DM [aOR (95% CI): 3.68(2.61-5.21)] and DM [4.29 (3.19-5.74)] were independently associated with stroke. The aOR of Pre-DM for ischemic stroke 3.06 (2.01-4.64)] was lower than 4.82 (3.37-6.89) for DM. However, the aOR of Pre-DM for hemorrhagic stroke 6.81 (95% CI: 3.29 - 14.08)] was higher than 3.36 (1.94-5.86) for DM. Furthermore, the aOR of pre-DM for ischemic stroke subtypes were 9.64 (1.30-71.57) for cardio-embolic stroke, 3.64 (1.80-7.34) for small-vessel occlusive disease and 4.63 (0.80-26.65) for large-vessel disease. CONCLUSION: Pre-DM is strongly and independently associated with stroke in Africans. Improving glycemic control through screening, healthy lifestyle and pharmacotherapy at a population level may be strategic in reducing the rising burden of stroke in Africa.

Legal Implications of Stroke Biobanking and Genomics Research in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Stroke is a major cause of death in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and genetic factors appear to play a part. This has led to stroke biobanking and genomics research in SSA. Existing stroke studies have focused on causes, incidence rates, fatalities and effects. However, scant attention has been paid to the legal issues in stroke biobanking and genomics research in the sub-region. Therefore, this article examines the legal implications of stroke biobanking and genomics research in SSA. The article adopts a textual analysis of primary and secondary sources in law. It reports that there are laws from the perspectives of human right, the common law, and intellectual property. However, there are gaps to be filled. The article therefore argues for legislative intervention. It concludes that pending the time the statute will be enacted, genomics researchers in Africa should adopt the ethical guidelines prepared by Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3 Africa).

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. METHODS: Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). RESULTS: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

Social contexts of fertility desire among non-childbearing young men and women aged 15-24 years in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Reduction in ideal number of children has been suggested as a necessary precursor for fertility decline especially in high fertility countries of Western and Central Africa. In this study, we explored the social contexts of fertility desires by documenting the effects of individual, household as well as contextual characteristics among young men and women in Nigeria. METHODS: Data source was the male and female recode file of 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Analytical sample comprised 2674 males and 9637 females aged 15-24 years. The main outcome variable was desire for large family size (DLFS) defined as ideal number of children greater than four. Analysis involved use of descriptive statistics and random-effect logit models fitted in four stages. RESULTS: DLFS was 71% among young men and 53% in women. Individual-level factors associated with DLFS among men includes Islam religion (OR = 3.95, CI 2.68-5.83), household size (OR = 1.05) and richer (OR = 0.47, CI 0.29-0.75) or richest wealth index (OR = 0.28, CI 0.16-0.75). Geo-political region and high level of negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.72, CI 1.23-2.40) were the main contextual factors associated with DLFS. For women, individual-level correlates were education, religion, ethnicity, marital status, household size, and wealth index. Contextual factors include geo-political region, community education (OR = 0.68, CI 0.52-0.89), child mortality experience (OR = 1.29, CI 1.11-1.51) and negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.36, CI 1.13-1.65). The influence of religion, household wealth and attitude to family planning differ between young men and women. CONCLUSION: Active communication and programmatic interventions are needed so that desire for large family size by young men and women do not become a clog for fertility transition in Nigeria.

Reduction in ideal number of children has been suggested as a necessary condition for fertility decline especially in high fertility countries of Western and Central Africa. In this study, we explored the effects of individual, household as well as community characteristics on fertility desires among young men and women aged 15­24 years in Nigeria. We analysed data for 2674 males and 9637 females aged 15­24 years extracted from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The outcome variable was desire for large family size (DLFS) defined as ideal number of children greater than four. Results showed that DLFS was 71% among men and 53% in women. Individual-level factors associated with DLFS among men include Islam religion, household size and wealth status. Geo-political region and high level of negative attitude to family planning were the main community-level factors associated with DLFS. For women, individual-level positively associated with DLFS were Islam religion, and being currently married. Compared to Yoruba, other ethnic groups were more likely to favour DLFS. The negative factors associated with DLFS among young women include higher education and wealth status. At the community-level, Northern geo-political regions, child mortality experience and negative attitude to family planning were positively associated with DLFS. The influence of religion, household wealth and attitude to family planning differ between young men and women. Multi-dimensional strategies with active communication and programmatic interventions are needed so that desire for large family size by young men and women do not slow down fertility transition in Nigeria.

A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African. OBJECTIVES: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (ß) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off. RESULTS: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%). CONCLUSIONS: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.

Demography of remarriage and fertility desire among women receiving antiretroviral therapy in South West Nigeria.

Background: In view of sociocultural norms surrounding marriage and childbearing in South West Nigeria, fertility desire may be stronger among remarried women living with HIV. This article describes the characteristics of remarriage and its relationship to fertility desire.Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-positive women aged 18-49 years at the Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) clinic, College of Medicine/University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between November and December 2015. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and generalised linear models.Results: Overall, 123 (17.3%) of 711 women had experienced remarriage. Significant factors among remarried women were a lack of formal education (ORadj = 3.35, CI: 1.46-7.72); polygamous family (ORadj = 2.65, CI: 1.71-4.12), and serodiscordant union (ORadj = 1.97, CI: 1.14-3.41). Fertility desire was expressed by 410 women (57.7%). After controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and HIV-care characteristics, remarried women were 2.5 times as likely to have fertility desire compared to their counterparts who never remarried (ORadj = 2.49, CI: 1.43-4.33). Younger age was significantly associated with higher odds of fertility desire. Other factors negatively associated with fertility desire were education (ORadj = 0.30, CI: 0.12-0.74) and number of surviving children (ORadj = 0.28, CI: 0.22-0.34).Conclusion: HIV-care and treatment programmes need to pay attention to reproductive concerns, especially among women in second and higher order marriages.

How soon do single mothers have another child? A competing risk analysis of second premarital childbearing in sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: A considerable number of previous studies have examined the trends, correlates, and consequences of premarital childbearing among adolescents and young women in Africa. However, very little is known about whether and how soon single mothers have another premarital birth in sub-Saharan African countries. This study examines the timing of a second premarital birth among single mothers and assesses how it may differ across key socio-demographic variables. METHODS: We pooled recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 25 sub-Saharan African countries to create a database of 57, 219 single mothers aged 15-49 years. Cumulative incidence graphs and Fine and Gray's competing risk models were used to delineate the timing of a second premarital birth and its socio-demographic correlates. RESULTS: More than one-third of single mothers in 16 countries have had a second premarital birth in their reproductive life. We also observed that more than 15% of the single mothers in Angola, Benin, the Republic of Chad, Liberia, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Uganda, have had another premarital birth three years after the first. The incidence of a second premarital birth was significantly lower among women with secondary or higher education, compared to women with less than secondary education (p < 0.05) in most countries. Residence in an urban area compared to rural, was also significantly associated with a low incidence of second premarital birth in 10 countries (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate a rapid progression to having a second premarital birth in some sub-Sahara African countries, particularly among socio-economically disadvantaged women. The findings suggest the need for tailored interventions for improving the quality of life of single mothers, to reduce the associated burden and consequences of having a premarital birth.

The effect of child death on birth spacing in Nigeria.

Studies have focused on the effect of short birth spacing on childhood mortality, yet very little attention has been paid to the possibility of an inverse relationship such that child mortality might also positively or negatively affect birth spacing. In Nigeria, where both fertility and child mortality are high, this inverse relationship is a possible reason for the country's high fertility. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of child death on time to birth of the next child. Data were drawn from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. The study sample comprised 188,986 live births born to women aged 15-49 years within the five years preceding the survey. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to the data, and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated. More than half of the mothers (68%) already had a next birth by 36 months after the death of the index child. Controlling for other covariates, the Cox regression model showed that the likelihood of next birth was higher when the index child had died compared with when the index child survived (HR: 2.21; CI: 2.03-2.41). Sub-group analysis by geo-political regions in Nigeria showed that in all regions there was a higher likelihood of having a next birth following the death of a preceding child. Death of the index child was found to be a major factor that shortens the length of birth intervals in Nigeria. It is therefore important that the Government of Nigeria intensifies efforts aimed at reducing infant mortality and encouraging adequate birth spacing.