Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Exploring algorithms to select candidates for non-selective beta-blockers in cirrhosis: a post-hoc analysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-invasive tests (NITs) can accurately select patients with cirrhosis requiring non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and prevention of decompensation is unclear. Our aim was to test the performance of NIT-based algorithms for CSPH diagnosis using the prospective PREDESCI cohort. We investigated a new algorithm combining NITs with endoscopy to improve performance. METHODS: We included patients with compensated cirrhosis and available liver elastography who were screened during the trial. The performance of models based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count was evaluated. An algorithm considering endoscopy for patients with inconclusive results (the "grey zone") was then developed and validated in an independent cohort of 195 patients in whom also spleen stiffness was available. RESULTS: We included 170 patients from the PREDESCI cohort. An LSM≥25 kPa alone (Baveno VII criteria) or an LSM>20 kPa plus thrombocytopenia (AASLD criteria) ruled-in CSPH with positive predictive value of 88 and 89%, respectively. However, 37%-47% patients fell into the grey zone while at high-risk of decompensation or death. Performing endoscopy in inconclusive cases identified patients with varices that, when re-classified as high-risk for CSPH, significantly reduced the grey zone to 22%. In this algorithm, 86% of CSPH patients were correctly classified as high-risk. The diagnostic performance was confirmed in the external validation cohort, where combining Baveno VII criteria with spleen stiffness showed similar accuracy to the model using endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Algorithms based only on LSM and platelet count are suboptimal to identify NSBB treatment candidates. Performing endoscopy in patients with indeterminate findings from NITs improved diagnostic performance and risk stratification. Endoscopy may be substituted by spleen stiffness for stratifying the risk in the grey zone. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The PREDESCI trial demonstrated that non-selective beta-blockers prevent decompensation in CSPH patients. Still it is unclear whether we can select treatment candidates using non-invasive tests to assess the presence of CSPH without measuring HVPG. In the prospective cohort of patients screened during the trial, we showed that algorithms based on liver stiffness and platelet count had suboptimal performance, mainly due to a high rate of indeterminate results. Performing endoscopy in the grey zone patients allowed to significantly increase the number of patients with CSPH and improved the risk stratification for decompensation or death on long-term follow-up. These findings were validated in an independent cohort. In addition, a model using spleen stiffness instead of endoscopy showed similar diagnostic performance in the external validation cohort, suggesting that adequate risk stratification to select treatment candidates can be achieved with a fully non-invasive algorithm.

Non-invasive assessment of severe liver fibrosis in patients with Fontan-associated liver disease: The VALDIG-EASL FONLIVER cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fontan-type surgery is used as a palliation for congenital heart disease with univentricular physiology but may, in the long term, lead to advanced chronic liver disease. This study assessed the accuracy of conventional non-invasive models in assessing liver fibrosis and introduces a new risk score employing non-invasive tools. METHODS: A prospective, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted across five European centers and encompassing all consecutive adult patients with Fontan circulation, liver biopsy and non-invasive tests (elastography, APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR). The primary outcome was the identification of severe liver fibrosis on biopsy. Multivariable logistic regression identified non-invasive predictors of severe fibrosis, leading to the development and internal validation of a new scoring model named the FonLiver risk score. RESULTS: In total, 217 patients (mean [standard deviation] age, 27.9 [8.9] years; 50.7% males) were included. Severe liver fibrosis was present in 47.9% (95% CI 41.2%-54.5%) and correlated with a lower functional class, protein-losing enteropathy, and compromised cardiopulmonary and systemic hemodynamics. The final FonLiver risk score incorporated liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography and platelet count and demonstrated strong discrimination and calibration (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] of 0.81). The FonLiver risk score outperformed conventional prediction models (APRI, FIB-4, Fibrosis score, Doha, GUCI, and AAR), which all exhibited worse performance in our cohort (AUROC < 0.70 for all). CONCLUSION: Severe liver fibrosis is prevalent in adults following Fontan-type palliation and can be effectively estimated using with the novel FonLiver risk score. This scoring system can be easily incorporated into the routine assessment of patients with Fontan circulation.

Multidrug-resistant bacterial infections after liver transplantation: Prevalence, impact, and risk factors.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Infections by multidrug-resistant bacteria (MDRB) are an increasing healthcare problem worldwide. This study analyzes the incidence, burden, and risk factors associated with MDRB infections after liver transplant(ation) (LT). METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included adult patients who underwent LT between January 2017 and January 2020. Risk factors related to pre-LT disease, surgical procedure, and postoperative stay were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of MDRB infections within the first 90 days after LT. RESULTS: We included 1,045 LT procedures (960 patients) performed at nine centers across Spain. The mean age of our cohort was 56.8 ± 9.3 years; 75.4% (n = 782) were male. Alcohol-related liver disease was the most prevalent underlying etiology (43.2.%, n = 451). Bacterial infections occurred in 432 patients (41.3%) who presented with a total of 679 episodes of infection (respiratory infections, 19.3%; urinary tract infections, 18.5%; bacteremia, 13.2% and cholangitis 11%, among others). MDRB were isolated in 227 LT cases (21.7%) (348 episodes). Enterococcus faecium (22.1%), Escherichia coli (18.4%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15.2%) were the most frequently isolated microorganisms. In multivariate analysis, previous intensive care unit admission (0-3 months before LT), previous MDRB infections (0-3 months before LT), and an increasing number of packed red blood cell units transfused during surgery were identified as independent predictors of MDRB infections. Mortality at 30, 90, 180, and 365 days was significantly higher in patients with MDRB isolates. CONCLUSION: MDRB infections are highly prevalent after LT and have a significant impact on prognosis. Enterococcus faecium is the most frequently isolated multi-resistant microorganism. New pharmacological and surveillance strategies aimed at preventing MDRB infections after LT should be considered for patients with risk factors. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Multidrug-resistant bacterial infections have a deep impact on morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation. Strategies aimed at improving prophylaxis, early identification, and empirical treatment are paramount. Our study unveiled the prevalence and main risk factors associated with these infections, and demonstrated that gram-positive bacteria, particularly Enterococcus faecium, are frequent in this clinical scenario. These findings provide valuable insights for the development of prophylactic and empirical antibiotic treatment protocols after liver transplantation.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Hepatic venous pressure gradient predicts risk of hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality in patients with MASLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a leading cause of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Portal hypertension drives hepatic decompensation and is best diagnosed by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of HVPG in MASLD-related compensated ACLD (MASLD-cACLD). METHODS: This European multicentre study included patients with MASLD-cACLD characterised by HVPG at baseline. Hepatic decompensation (variceal bleeding/ascites/hepatic encephalopathy) and liver-related mortality were considered the primary events of interest. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients with MASLD-cACLD (56.2% male; median age 62 [55-68] years, median MELD 8 [7-9], 71.2% with diabetes) were included. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) was found in 209 patients (61.5%). During a median follow-up of 41.5 (27.5-65.8) months, 65 patients developed hepatic decompensation with a cumulative incidence of 10.0% after 2 years (2Y) and 30.7% after 5 years (5Y) in those with MASLD-cACLD with CSPH, compared to 2.4% after 2Y and 9.4% after 5Y in patients without CSPH. Variceal bleeding did not occur without CSPH. CSPH (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 5.13; p <0.001) was associated with an increased decompensation risk and a higher HVPG remained an independent risk factor in the multivariable model (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.12, p <0.001). Liver-related mortality occurred in 37 patients at a cumulative incidence of 3.3% after 2Y and 21.4% after 5Y in CSPH. Without CSPH, the incidence after 5Y was 0.8%. Accordingly, a higher HVPG was also independently associated with a higher risk of liver-related death (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.20, p <0.001). CONCLUSION: HVPG measurement is of high prognostic value in MASLD-cACLD. In patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH, the short-term risk of decompensation is very low and liver-related mortality is rare, while the presence of CSPH substantially increases the risk of both. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: While the incidence of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing worldwide, insights into the impact of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) on the risk of liver-related events in MASLD-cACLD remain limited. Based on the findings of this European multicentre study including 340 MASLD-cACLD patients, we could show that increasing HVPG values and the presence of CSPH in particular were associated with a significantly higher risk of first hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality. In contrast, the short-term incidence of decompensation in patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH was low and the risk of liver-mortality remained negligible. Thus, HVPG measurements can provide important prognostic information for individualised risk stratification in MASLD-cACLD and may help facilitate the study of novel and promising treatment possibilities for MASLD.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Mechanisms by which the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator may influence SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease severity.

Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) exhibit pronounced respiratory damage and were initially considered among those at highest risk for serious harm from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Numerous clinical studies have subsequently reported that individuals with CF in North America and Europe-while susceptible to severe COVID-19-are often spared from the highest levels of virus-associated mortality. To understand features that might influence COVID-19 among patients with cystic fibrosis, we studied relationships between SARS-CoV-2 and the gene responsible for CF (i.e., the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator, CFTR). In contrast to previous reports, we found no association between CFTR carrier status (mutation heterozygosity) and more severe COVID-19 clinical outcomes. We did observe an unexpected trend toward higher mortality among control individuals compared with silent carriers of the common F508del CFTR variant-a finding that will require further study. We next performed experiments to test the influence of homozygous CFTR deficiency on viral propagation and showed that SARS-CoV-2 production in primary airway cells was not altered by the absence of functional CFTR using two independent protocols. On the contrary, experiments performed in vitro strongly indicated that virus proliferation depended on features of the mucosal fluid layer known to be disrupted by absent CFTR in patients with CF, including both low pH and increased viscosity. These results point to the acidic, viscous, and mucus-obstructed airways in patients with cystic fibrosis as unfavorable for the establishment of coronaviral infection. Our findings provide new and important information concerning relationships between the CF clinical phenotype and severity of COVID-19.

Clinical outcomes of anti-reflux mucosal ablation for gastroesophageal reflux disease: An international bi-institutional study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Anti-reflux mucosal ablation (ARMA) is an emerging endoscopic treatment aimed at enhancing the gastroesophageal junction flap valve. This study aimed to evaluate its feasibility, effectiveness, and safety. METHODS: Between May 2018 and December 2022, patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms refractory to acid suppression medications or those dependent on such medications were enrolled for ARMA. This retrospective analysis utilized prospectively collected data from an international bi-center study. GERD questionnaire, upper endoscopy, and 24-h pH monitoring were conducted at 2-6 months and 12 months post-ARMA. Clinical success was defined as a > 50% reduction in a validated GERD questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 68 patients underwent ARMA. Definitive GERD was diagnosed in 44 (64.7%) patients, while 24 (35.3%) exhibited reflux hypersensitivity. Clinical success rates at 2-6 months and 1 year post-ARMA were 60% (39/65) and 70% (21/30), respectively. The median GERD-health-related quality of life score significantly improved from 26 to 11 at 2-6 months (P < 0.001). Among the 51 patients (71.8%) who underwent 24-h pH monitoring, the median acid exposure time decreased from 5.3% to 0.7% (P = 0.003), accompanied by a significant reduction in esophagitis rates (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis did not identify predictors of short-term success. Nine (13.2%) patients experienced transient stenosis requiring balloon dilation. CONCLUSIONS: ARMA demonstrates both technical feasibility and reproducibility as a safe procedure that effectively ameliorates GERD symptoms in approximately two-thirds of patients during short-term follow up. Both reflux hypersensitivity and confirmed GERD patients, regardless of their response to acid suppression medication, may be suitable candidates.

Evolving portal hypertension through Baveno VII recommendations.

The Baveno VII consensus workshop has provided several novel recommendations regarding the management of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). The expert panel summarized the existing data into simple clinical rules to aid clinicians in their clinical practice. The use of non-invasive tests (NITs), especially liver stiffness measurement (LSM), have gain an important role in daily practice. The use of LSM alone or in combination with platelet count can be used to rule-in and rule-out compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and CSPH. Further decompensation events were defined as a prognostic stage associated with an even higher mortality than that associated with first decompensation. Moreover, the term hepatic recompensation was introduced in Baveno VII consensus implying a partial or complete regression of the functional and structural changes of cirrhosis after the removal of the underlying etiology. This review will summarize the reader main aspects of Baveno VII consensus regarding the use of NITs in cACLD, analyze further decompensation events, and evaluate recent recommendations for prophylaxis and management of liver decompensation events.

Strategic analysis and recommendations of the Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva (SEPD) regarding population-based screening programs for colorectal cancer in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: population-based screening programs are effective to reduce colorectal cancer-related mortality and incidence. However, given their complex development, sound organization and design do not warrant success. This study provides a strategic analysis of the Spanish programs, as well as recommendations in an attempt to contribute to their optimization. METHODS: a multidisciplinary panel of researchers, supported by the Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva (SEPD), has performed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis, from which a proposal of recommendations was developed; their adequacy was judged using an adapted version of the RAND/UCLA method. RESULTS: 5 weaknesses, 3 threats, 5 strengths and 5 opportunities were identified, and a total of 15 recommendations were developed emphasizing aspects with room for improvement in program orientation, particularly the need to increase participation, fight variability and inequities, improve information processes and systems quality, ensure specific, adequate funding, and evaluate health results. CONCLUSION: promoting an operational collaboration framework between all the public health and care levels involved should facilitate effective communication with society regarding the benefits of taking part in population screening programs while persuading decision and policy makers of the critical importance of taking an active, determined stance regarding its implementation.

Portal hypertension: recommendations for diagnosis and treatment. Consensus document sponsored by the Spanish Association for the Study of the Liver (AEEH) and the Biomedical Research Network Center for Liver and Digestive Diseases (CIBERehd).

Portal hypertension is a hemodynamic abnormality that complicates the course of cirrhosis, as well as other diseases that affect the portal venous circulation. The development of portal hypertension compromises prognosis, especially when it rises above a certain threshold known as clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). In the consensus conference on Portal Hypertension promoted by the Spanish Association for the Study of the Liver and the Hepatic and Digestive diseases area of the Biomedical Research Networking Center (CIBERehd), different aspects of the diagnosis and treatment of portal hypertension caused by cirrhosis or other diseases were discussed. The outcome of this discussion was a set of recommendations that achieved varying degrees of consensus among panelists and are reflected in this consensus document. The six areas under discussion were: the relevance of clinically significant portal hypertension and the non-invasive methods used for its diagnosis and that of cirrhosis, the prevention of the first episode of decompensation and its recurrence, the treatment of acute variceal bleeding and other complications of portal hypertension, the indications for the use of TIPS, and finally, the diagnosis and treatment of liver vascular diseases.

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CDS) as first-line treatment for malignant distal biliary obstruction.

In patients with malignant distal biliary obstruction, drainage via Endoscopic Ultrasound-guided Choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CDS) is indicated in clinical guidelines following a failed Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). However, current interest lies in evaluating its role as a first-line treatment. Through this letter, we present a case report that represents this clinical scenario, as well as a brief summary of the most recent literature supporting the use of EUS-CDS as a first-line treatment for malignant distal biliary obstruction.

Sympathetic nervous activation, mitochondrial dysfunction and outcome in acutely decompensated cirrhosis: the metabolomic prognostic models (CLIF-C MET).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current prognostic scores of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD), particularly those with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), underestimate the risk of mortality. This is probably because systemic inflammation (SI), the major driver of AD/ACLF, is not reflected in the scores. SI induces metabolic changes, which impair delivery of the necessary energy for the immune reaction. This investigation aimed to identify metabolites associated with short-term (28-day) death and to design metabolomic prognostic models. METHODS: Two prospective multicentre large cohorts from Europe for investigating ACLF and development of ACLF, CANONIC (discovery, n=831) and PREDICT (validation, n=851), were explored by untargeted serum metabolomics to identify and validate metabolites which could allow improved prognostic modelling. RESULTS: Three prognostic metabolites strongly associated with death were selected to build the models. 4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate is a norepinephrine derivative, which may be derived from the brainstem response to SI. Additionally, galacturonic acid and hexanoylcarnitine are associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. Model 1 included only these three prognostic metabolites and age. Model 2 was built around 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate, hexanoylcarnitine, bilirubin, international normalised ratio (INR) and age. In the discovery cohort, both models were more accurate in predicting death within 7, 14 and 28 days after admission compared with MELDNa score (C-index: 0.9267, 0.9002 and 0.8424, and 0.9369, 0.9206 and 0.8529, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.940, 0.834 and 0.791, and 0.947, 0.857 and 0.810, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Also, in ACLF, model 1 and model 2 outperformed MELDNa 7, 14 and 28 days after admission for prediction of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Models including metabolites (CLIF-C MET) reflecting SI, mitochondrial dysfunction and sympathetic system activation are better predictors of short-term mortality than scores based only on organ dysfunction (eg, MELDNa), especially in patients with ACLF.

Hepatic encephalopathy is not a contraindication to pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: A pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (pTIPS) reduces mortality in high-risk patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh C/B+active bleeding) with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Real-life studies point out that <15% of patients eligible for pTIPS ultimately undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) due to concerns about hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The outcome of patients undergoing pTIPS with HE is unknown. We aimed to (1) assess the prevalence of HE in patients with AVB; (2) evaluate the outcome of patients presenting HE at admission after pTIPS; and (3) determine if HE at admission is a risk factor for death and post-TIPS HE. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is an observational study including 2138 patients from 34 centres between October 2011 and May 2015. Placement of pTIPS was based on individual centre policy. Patients were followed up to 1 year, death or liver transplantation. RESULTS: 671 of 2138 patients were considered at high risk, 66 received pTIPS and 605 endoscopic+drug treatment. At admission, HE was significantly more frequent in high-risk than in low-risk patients (39.2% vs 10.6%, p<0.001). In high-risk patients with HE at admission, pTIPS was associated with a lower 1-year mortality than endoscopic+drug (HR 0.374, 95% CI 0.166 to 0.845, p=0.0181). The incidence of HE was not different between patients treated with pTIPS and endoscopic+drug (38.2% vs 38.7%, p=0.9721), even in patients with HE at admission (56.4% vs 58.7%, p=0.4594). Age >56, shock, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >15, endoscopic+drug treatment and HE at admission were independent factors of death in high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: pTIPS is associated with better survival than endoscopic treatment in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding displaying HE at admission.

Beta-blockers in the era of precision medicine in patients with cirrhosis.

For decades, non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) have been the standard of care for the primary and secondary prevention of bleeding from oesophageal varices. However, several questions regarding the best clinical use of NSBBs remain unanswered and new data continue to emerge. Herein, we aim to delineate the therapeutic window of NSBBs in cirrhosis from a more individualised perspective. We address the current controversy of widening the therapeutic window and prescribing NSBBs to all patients with clinically significant portal hypertension. Although transient elastography is useful to rule-in clinically significant portal hypertension, we lack robust data supporting the use of NSBBs in patients without varices. While most data are based on propranolol, accumulating evidence suggests that carvedilol is superior and should be the first-line treatment until the decompensated stage. The clinical risk-to-benefit ratio appears to deteriorate in advanced decompensated stages and the risk of harm is high in patients with refractory ascites, low blood pressure and renal impairment, which clinically define closure of the therapeutic window. We also critically review non-invasive surrogates and biomarkers for predicting the haemodynamic response to NSBBs and confirm that the absence of reliable non-invasive methods is one of the main challenges facing the field.

Anticoagulation improves survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis: The IMPORTAL competing-risk meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous meta-analyses demonstrated the safety and efficacy of anticoagulation in the recanalization of portal vein thrombosis in patients with cirrhosis. Whether this benefit translates into improved survival is unknown. We conducted an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess the effect of anticoagulation on all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis. METHODS: In this IPD meta-analysis, we selected studies comparing anticoagulation vs. no treatment in patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis from PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases (until June 2020) (PROSPERO no.: CRD42020140026). IPD were subsequently requested from authors. The primary outcome - the effect of anticoagulation on all-cause mortality - was assessed by a one-step meta-analysis based on a competing-risk model with liver transplantation as the competing event. The model was adjusted for clinically relevant confounders. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to determine the effect of anticoagulation on recanalization. RESULTS: Individual data on 500 patients from five studies were included; 205 (41%) received anticoagulation and 295 did not. Anticoagulation reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 0.59; 95% CI 0.49-0.70), independently of thrombosis severity and recanalization. The effect of anticoagulation on all-cause mortality was consistent with a reduction in liver-related mortality. The recanalization rate was higher in the anticoagulation arm (adjusted odds ratio 3.45; 95% CI 2.22-5.36). The non-portal-hypertension-related bleeding rate was significantly greater in the anticoagulation group. CONCLUSIONS: Anticoagulation reduces all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis independently of recanalization, but at the expense of increasing non-portal hypertension-related bleeding. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020140026. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Anticoagulation is effective in promoting recanalization of portal vein thrombosis in patients with cirrhosis, but whether this benefit translates into improved survival is controversial. Our individual patient data meta-analysis based on a competing-risk model with liver transplantation as the competing event shows that anticoagulation reduces all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis independently of recanalization. According to our findings, portal vein thrombosis may identify a group of patients with cirrhosis that benefit from long-term anticoagulation.

Incidence and factors predictive of recurrent thrombosis in people with non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Clinical guidelines do not recommend long-term anticoagulation in non-cirrhotic splanchnic vein thrombosis (NC-SVT) without underlying thrombophilia because it is assumed that there is a very low risk of recurrent thrombosis (RT). Our first aim was to describe the incidence of RT in people with NC-SVT without an indication for long-term anticoagulation. The second aim was to identify RT risk factors and afterwards verify them in a validation cohort. METHODS: This is a multicentre, retrospective observational study evaluating risk factors for RT in 64 people with NC-SVT of idiopathic/local factor aetiology. In a subgroup of 48 individuals, the potential value of additional thrombophilic parameters to predict RT was analysed. Findings were validated in 70 individuals with idiopathic/local factor NC-SVT. RESULTS: Of the 64 participants in the training cohort, 17 (26%) presented splanchnic and/or extrasplanchnic RT (overall-RT) during follow-up (cumulative incidence: 2, 10, 19, and 34% at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively). In addition, 53% of people with splanchnic RT were asymptomatic. No clinical or biochemical parameters predicted overall-RT. However, in the 48 people with an additional comprehensive thrombophilic study, factor VIII ≥150% was the only independent factor predicting overall-RT (hazard ratio 7.10, 95% CI 2.17-23.17, p <0.01). In the validation cohort, 19 individuals (27%) presented overall-RT, and it was also independently predicted by factor VIII >150% (hazard ratio 3.71, 95% CI 1.31-10.5, p <0.01). The predictive value of factor VIII was confirmed in both people with idiopathic/local factor aetiology associated NC-SVT. CONCLUSIONS: People with idiopathic/local factor NC-SVT are at risk of overall-RT. Splanchnic RT can be asymptomatic and requires screening for its detection. Values of factor VIII ≥150% may help identify individuals at high risk of overall-RT who could benefit from long-term anticoagulation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: People with idiopathic/isolated local factor non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis were previously thought to be at minimal risk of re-thrombosis and therefore did not receive scheduled follow-up. The results of this study are of special interest for hepatologists treating people with non-cirrhotic splanchnic thrombosis, as they show a 25% incidence of re-thrombosis and support the close follow-up of people with factor VIII >150% to ensure the early identification of new thrombotic events.

Assessment of portal hypertension severity using machine learning models in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In individuals with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the severity of portal hypertension (PH) determines the risk of decompensation. Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the diagnostic gold standard for PH. We evaluated the utility of machine learning models (MLMs) based on standard laboratory parameters to predict the severity of PH in individuals with cACLD. METHODS: A detailed laboratory workup of individuals with cACLD recruited from the Vienna cohort (NCT03267615) was utilised to predict clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and severe PH (i.e., HVPG ≥16 mmHg). The MLMs were then evaluated in individual external datasets and optimised in the merged cohort. RESULTS: Among 1,232 participants with cACLD, the prevalence of CSPH/severe PH was similar in the Vienna (n = 163, 67.4%/35.0%) and validation (n = 1,069, 70.3%/34.7%) cohorts. The MLMs were based on 3 (3P: platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (5P: +cholinesterase, +gamma-glutamyl transferase, +activated partial thromboplastin time replacing international normalised ratio) laboratory parameters. The MLMs performed robustly in the Vienna cohort. 5P-MLM had the best AUCs for CSPH (0.813) and severe PH (0.887) and compared favourably to liver stiffness measurement (AUC: 0.808). Their performance in external validation datasets was heterogeneous (AUCs: 0.589-0.887). Training on the merged cohort optimised model performance for CSPH (AUCs for 3P and 5P: 0.775 and 0.789, respectively) and severe PH (0.737 and 0.828, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Internally trained MLMs reliably predicted PH severity in the Vienna cACLD cohort but exhibited heterogeneous results on external validation. The proposed 3P/5P online tool can reliably identify individuals with CSPH or severe PH, who are thus at risk of hepatic decompensation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We used machine learning models based on widely available laboratory parameters to develop a non-invasive model to predict the severity of portal hypertension in individuals with compensated cirrhosis, who currently require invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient. We validated our findings in a large multicentre cohort of individuals with advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) of any cause. Finally, we provide a readily available online calculator, based on 3 (platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (platelet count, bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, gamma-glutamyltransferase, choline-esterase) widely available laboratory parameters, that clinicians can use to predict the likelihood of their patients with cACLD having clinically significant or severe portal hypertension.

Randomized, controlled clinical trial of the DIALIVE liver dialysis device versus standard of care in patients with acute-on- chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by severe systemic inflammation, multi-organ failure and high mortality rates. Its treatment is an urgent unmet need. DIALIVE is a novel liver dialysis device that aims to exchange dysfunctional albumin and remove damage- and pathogen-associated molecular patterns. This first-in-man randomized-controlled trial was performed with the primary aim of assessing the safety of DIALIVE in patients with ACLF, with secondary aims of evaluating its clinical effects, device performance and effect on pathophysiologically relevant biomarkers. METHODS: Thirty-two patients with alcohol-related ACLF were included. Patients were treated with DIALIVE for up to 5 days and end points were assessed at Day 10. Safety was assessed in all patients (n = 32). The secondary aims were assessed in a pre-specified subgroup that had at least three treatment sessions with DIALIVE (n = 30). RESULTS: There were no significant differences in 28-day mortality or occurrence of serious adverse events between the groups. Significant reduction in the severity of endotoxemia and improvement in albumin function was observed in the DIALIVE group, which translated into a significant reduction in the CLIF-C (Chronic Liver Failure consortium) organ failure (p = 0.018) and CLIF-C ACLF scores (p = 0.042) at Day 10. Time to resolution of ACLF was significantly faster in DIALIVE group (p = 0.036). Biomarkers of systemic inflammation such as IL-8 (p = 0.006), cell death [cytokeratin-18: M30 (p = 0.005) and M65 (p = 0.029)], endothelial function [asymmetric dimethylarginine (p = 0.002)] and, ligands for Toll-like receptor 4 (p = 0.030) and inflammasome (p = 0.002) improved significantly in the DIALIVE group. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that DIALIVE appears to be safe and impacts positively on prognostic scores and pathophysiologically relevant biomarkers in patients with ACLF. Larger, adequately powered studies are warranted to further confirm its safety and efficacy. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This is the first-in-man clinical trial which tested DIALIVE, a novel liver dialysis device for the treatment of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with severe inflammation, organ failures and a high risk of death. The study met the primary endpoint, confirming the safety of the DIALIVE system. Additionally, DIALIVE reduced inflammation and improved clinical parameters. However, it did not reduce mortality in this small study and further larger clinical trials are required to re-confirm its safety and to evaluate efficacy. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT03065699.