A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates.

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

Association of Environmental Factors with Seasonal Intensity of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae Seropositivity among Arctic Caribou.

Several caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations have been declining concurrently with increases in infectious diseases in the Arctic. Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a zoonotic bacterium, was first described in 2015 as a notable cause of illness and death among several Arctic wildlife species. We investigated epidemiologic and environmental factors associated with the seroprevalence of E. rhusiopathiae in the Arctic and found that seropositivity was highest during warmer months, peaking in September, and was highest among adult males. Summer seroprevalence increases tracked with the oestrid index from the previous year, icing and snowing events, and precipitation from the same year but decreased with growing degree days in the same year. Seroprevalence of E. rhusiopathiae varied more during the later years of the study. Our findings provide key insights into the influence of environmental factors on disease prevalence that can be instrumental for anticipating and mitigating diseases associated with climate change among Arctic wildlife and human populations.

Tissue-specific assessment of oxidative status: Wild boar as a case study.

In recent decades, there has been a fast-growing interest in using biomarkers of oxidative stress (BOS) in conservation programs of many vertebrate species. Biomarkers of oxidative stress can be measured in different biological samples (e.g., body fluids and tissues). However, since comparisons of the same battery of BOS among tissues of the same individual are scarce in the literature, the chosen target tissues regularly rely on arbitrary decisions. Our research aimed to determine if the oxidative status of free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa) naturally infected with Mycobacterium spp (etiological agent of tuberculosis, TB), varies depending on the sample where it was quantified. We compared antioxidant p-nitrophenyl esterase activity (EA), glutathione peroxidase (GPX) concentrations, and total oxidative status (TOS) in serum, lung, spleen, kidney, and muscle of 63 wild boar hunter-harvested in central Spain. Biomarkers of oxidative stress in serum had higher concentrations than in other tissues. The poor agreement between serum and other tissues highlights the importance of running complete BOS assessments in the same fluid or tissue. Further, low concentrations of BOS in tissues of TB-affected individuals were observed, and significant differences between healthy and sick boar were only detected in the serum of individuals developing mild TB and in the muscle of individuals with mild or severe disease status. However, all organs from wild boars affected with mild TB were not in oxidative imbalance compared to healthy control animals, suggesting that wild boars may cope well with TB. Our data indicate that serum and other tissues can be used as BOS in field conservation programs to monitor wildlife population health. Still, context-specific validations are needed to determine the most appropriate samples to use.

Adaptations, life-history traits and ecological mechanisms of parasites to survive extremes and environmental unpredictability in the face of climate change.

Climate change is increasing weather unpredictability, causing more intense, frequent and longer extreme events including droughts, precipitation, and both heat and cold waves. The performance of parasites, and host-parasite interactions, under these unpredictable conditions, are directly influenced by the ability of parasites to cope with extremes and their capacity to adapt to the new conditions. Here, we review some of the structural, behavioural, life history and ecological characteristics of parasitic nematodes that allow them to persist and adapt to extreme and changing environmental conditions. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on parasitic nematodes in the Arctic, where temperature extremes are pronounced, climate change is happening most rapidly, and changes in host-parasite interactions are already documented. We discuss how life-history traits, phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation and evolutionary history can influence the short and long term response of parasites to new conditions. A detailed understanding of the complex ecological processes involved in the survival of parasites in extreme and changing conditions is a fundamental step to anticipate the impact of climate change in parasite dynamics.

Parasite intensity drives fetal development and sex allocation in a wild ungulate.

An understanding of the mechanisms influencing prenatal characteristics is fundamental to comprehend the role of ecological and evolutionary processes behind survival and reproductive success in animals. Although the negative influence of parasites on host fitness is undisputable, we know very little about how parasitic infection in reproductive females might influence prenatal factors such as fetal development and sex allocation. Using an archival collection of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli), a capital breeder that depends on its body reserves to overcome the arctic winter, we investigated the direct and indirect impacts of the parasite community on fetal development and sex allocation. Using partial least squares modelling, we observed a negative effect of parasite community on fetal development, driven primarily by the nematode Marshallagia marshalli. Principal component analysis demonstrated that mothers with low parasite burden and in good body condition were more likely to have female versus male fetuses. This association was primarily driven by the indirect effect of M. marshalli on ewe body condition. Refining our knowledge of the direct and indirect impact that parasite communities can have on reproduction in mammals is critical for understanding the effects of infectious diseases on wildlife populations. This can be particularly relevant for species living in ecosystems sensitive to the effects of global climate change.

Phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in freeze tolerance: Implications for parasite dynamics in a changing world.

Marshallagia marshalli is a multi-host gastrointestinal nematode that infects a variety of artiodactyl species from temperate to Arctic latitudes. Eggs of Marshallagia are passed in host faeces and develop through three larval stages (L1, L2, and L3) in the environment. Although eggs normally hatch as L1s, they can also hatch as L3s. We hypothesised that this phenotypic plasticity in hatching behaviour may improve fitness in subzero and highly variable environments, and this may constitute an evolutionary advantage under current climate change scenarios. To test this, we first determined if the freeze tolerance of different free-living stages varied at different temperatures (-9 °C, -20 °C and -35 °C). We then investigated if there were differences in freeze tolerance of M. marshalli eggs sourced from three discrete, semi-isolated, populations of wild bighorn and thinhorn sheep living in western North America (latitudes: 40°N, 50°N, 64°N). The survival rates of eggs and L3s were significantly higher than L1s at -9 °C and -20 °C, and survival of all three stages decreased significantly with increasing freeze duration and decreasing temperature. The survival of unhatched L1s was significantly higher than the survival of hatched L1s. There was no evidence of local thermal adaptation in freeze tolerance among eggs from different locations. We conclude that developing to the L3 in the egg may result in a fitness advantage for M. marshalli, with the egg protecting the more vulnerable L1 under freezing conditions. This phenotypic plasticity in life-history traits of M. marshalli might be an important capacity, a potential exaptation capable of enhancing parasite fitness under temperature extremes.

Adaptations and phenotypic plasticity in developmental traits of Marshallagia marshalli.

Despite the economic, social and ecological importance of the ostertagiine abomasal nematode Marshallagia marshalli, little is known about its life history traits and its adaptations to cope with environmental extremes. Conserved species-specific traits can act as exaptations that may enhance parasite fitness in changing environments. Using a series of experiments, we revealed several unique adaptations of the free-living stages of M. marshalli that differ from other ostertagiines. Eggs were isolated from the feces of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) from the Canadian Rocky Mountains and were cultured at different temperatures and with different media. Hatching occurred primarily as L1s in an advanced stage of development, morphologically very similar to a L2. When cultured at 20 °C, however, 2.86% of eggs hatched as L3, with this phenomenon being significantly more common at higher temperatures, peaking at 30 °C with 28.95% of eggs hatching as L3s. After hatching, free-living larvae of M. marshalli did not feed nor grow as they matured from L1 to infective L3. These life history traits seem to be adaptations to cope with the extreme environmental conditions that Marshallagia faces across its extensive latitudinal distribution in North America and Eurasia. In order to refine the predictions of parasite dynamics under scenarios of a changing climate, basic life history traits and temperature-dependent phenotypic behaviour should be incorporated into models for parasite biology.

Using Multinomial and Space-Time Permutation Models to Understand the Epidemiology of Infectious Bronchitis in California Between 2008 and 2012.

Although infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) has been described as one of the most economically important viral respiratory diseases in poultry, there are few analyses of outbreaks that use spatial statistics. In order to better understand how the different genotypes of IBV behave spatially and temporally, we used geographic information system-based mapping coupled with spatial and spatial-temporal statistics to identify statistically significant clustering of multiple strains of infectious bronchitis (IB) between 2008 and 2012 in California. Specifically, space-time permutation and multinomial models were used to identify spatial and spatial-temporal clusters of various genotypes of IBV. Using time permutations (i.e., windows) spanning days to years, we identified three statistically significant ( P < 0.05) clusters. In contrast, multinomial models identified two statistically significant spatial-temporal clusters and one statistically significant spatial cluster. When comparing the space-time permutation and multinomial models against each other, we identified spatial and temporal overlap in two of the three statistically significant clusters. From a practical perspective, multinomial clustering approaches may be advantageous for studying IB because the model allows the different genotypes of IB to be independent nominal variables, thereby allowing for a more detailed spatial analysis. To that point, based on their risk ratios, the genotypes classified as vaccine-related were identified as the most significant contributor to two of the three mutinomial clusters. Additionally, statistically significant clusters were mapped and layered on a hot-spot analysis of commercial poultry farm density in order to qualitatively assess the relationship between farm density and clusters of IBV. Results showed that one of the three space-time permutations and one of the three multinomial clusters were spatially centered near the highest density farm areas, as determined by the hot-spot analysis.