A utilization distribution for the global population of Cape Vultures (Gyps coprotheres) to guide wind energy development.

The rapid development of wind energy in southern Africa represents an additional threat to the already fragile populations of African vultures. The distribution of the vulnerable Cape Vulture Gyps coprotheres overlaps considerably with wind energy development areas in South Africa, creating conflicts that can hinder both vulture conservation and sustainable energy development. To help address this conflict and aid in the safe placement of wind energy facilities, we map the utilization distribution (UD) of this species across its distributional range. Using tracking data from 68 Cape Vultures collected over the last 20 years, we develop a spatially explicit habitat use model to estimate the expected UDs around known colonies. Scaling the UDs by the number of vultures expected to use each of the colonies, we estimate the Cape Vulture population utilization distribution (PUD) and determine its exposure to wind farm impacts. To complement our results, we model the probability of a vulture flying within the rotor sweep area of a wind turbine throughout the species range and use this to identify areas that are particularly prone to collisions. Overall, our estimated PUD correlates well with reporting rates of the species from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, currently used to assess potential overlap between Cape Vultures and wind energy developments, but it adds important benefits, such as providing a spatial gradient of activity estimates over the entire species range. We illustrate the application of our maps by analyzing the exposure of Cape Vultures in the Renewable Energy Development Zones (REDZs) in South Africa. This application is a scalable procedure that can be applied at different planning phases, from strategic, nationwide planning to project-level assessments.

The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa's major land uses.

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species' population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate 'intactness scores': the remaining proportion of an 'intact' reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region's major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems.

Assessing and planning future estuarine resource use: A scenario-based regional-scale freshwater allocation approach.

Rapid urbanisation and industrial growth in South Africa increases the need for proactive allocation of freshwater resources on a regional scale. A nine-step method is described that sets long-term targets for water resource condition and future use with a focus on estuary water quantity and quality requirements. The approach specifically focuses on the environmental flow allocation to estuaries, nested within a broader, regional (multi-catchment and multi-estuary) water resource landscape. The method differs to most other approaches in that the responses of multiple estuaries to escalating future development in a region are coherently quantified (versus only considering a single estuary in a single catchment). A case study that assessed the health, biodiversity importance and resilience to current and future pressures of 64 estuaries is used to illustrate the method. Projected growth in the study area was integrated into a range of future dam development and wastewater discharge scenarios. The results showed that estuaries around the urban centres were in poor condition, but those in the more rural areas in a more natural state. As a result of their small size, most of the estuaries in the region had little resilience to changes in freshwater quantity and nutrient loading. In contrast, the larger systems, targeted for dam development, only showed sensitivity to water abstraction during low-flow periods when base-flow reduction caused mouth closure and changes in nutrient processes. Broadly, the approach aimed to find a balance between ecological requirements and socio-economic development, which meant that maintaining larger systems in relatively good condition would be at the expense of smaller systems that are already in a poor condition. The approach developed was successful in quantifying the responses of multiple estuaries to escalating future pressures on a regional scale, and could be replicated to assist in managing water resources elsewhere in data-limited environments.