Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment.

Climate and land-use change are key drivers of global change. Full-factorial field experiments in which both drivers are manipulated are essential to understand and predict their potentially interactive effects on the structure and functioning of grassland ecosystems. Here, we present 8 years of data on grassland dynamics from the Global Change Experimental Facility in Central Germany. On large experimental plots, temperature and seasonal patterns of precipitation are manipulated by superimposing regional climate model projections onto background climate variability. Climate manipulation is factorially crossed with agricultural land-use scenarios, including intensively used meadows and extensively used (i.e., low-intensity) meadows and pastures. Inter-annual variation of background climate during our study years was high, including three of the driest years on record for our region. The effects of this temporal variability far exceeded the effects of the experimentally imposed climate change on plant species diversity and productivity, especially in the intensively used grasslands sown with only a few grass cultivars. These changes in productivity and diversity in response to alterations in climate were due to immigrant species replacing the target forage cultivars. This shift from forage cultivars to immigrant species may impose additional economic costs in terms of a decreasing forage value and the need for more frequent management measures. In contrast, the extensively used grasslands showed weaker responses to both experimentally manipulated future climate and inter-annual climate variability, suggesting that these diverse grasslands are more resistant to climate change than intensively used, species-poor grasslands. We therefore conclude that a lower management intensity of agricultural grasslands, associated with a higher plant diversity, can stabilize primary productivity under climate change.

Effects of climate change and pollen supplementation on the reproductive success of two grassland plant species.

Climate change has the potential to alter plant reproductive success directly and indirectly through disruptions in animal pollination. Climate models project altered seasonal precipitation patterns, and thus, the effects of climate change on available resources and pollination services will depend on the season. Plants have evolved reproductive strategies to so they are not limited by either pollen or water availability in their reproductive success, and therefore, we expect that the disruption of climate change might cause plants to be more pollen limited in seasons that become wetter than they were historically. In this study, we conducted a pollen supplementation experiment within the Global Change Experiment Facility (GCEF) in Central Germany. The GCEF experimentally manipulates future climate based on a realistic scenario of climate change for the region (drier summers and wetter springs and falls) in a native grassland ecosystem. We quantified seed production of two perennial species Dianthus carthusianorum and Scabiosa ochroleuca in response to pollination treatments (control, supplement), climate treatments (ambient and future) and season (summer and fall). Dianthus carthusianorum produced more seeds in future climate conditions independent of the season, but only when given supplemental pollen. Both species showed an increased reproduction in summer compared with the fall. We did not find evidence for our specific expectation of higher pollen limitation in the future climate and fall season (i.e., no three-way interaction pollination × season × climate), which might be explained by the high-drought tolerance and generalized pollination of our focal plant species. We conclude that plant reproductive success has the potential to change with changing climates and that this change will depend on how pollinator services change in the future. We offer many suggestions for future studies that are necessary to understand the context dependence and underlying mechanisms of plant reproductive responses to climate.