Predicting short- to medium-term care home admission risk in older adults: a systematic review of externally validated models.

INTRODUCTION: Predicting risk of care home admission could identify older adults for early intervention to support independent living but require external validation in a different dataset before clinical use. We systematically reviewed external validations of care home admission risk prediction models in older adults. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library until 14 August 2023 for external validations of prediction models for care home admission risk in adults aged ≥65 years with up to 3 years of follow-up. We extracted and narratively synthesised data on study design, model characteristics, and model discrimination and calibration (accuracy of predictions). We assessed risk of bias and applicability using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Five studies reporting validations of nine unique models were included. Model applicability was fair but risk of bias was mostly high due to not reporting model calibration. Morbidities were used as predictors in four models, most commonly neurological or psychiatric diseases. Physical function was also included in four models. For 1-year prediction, three of the six models had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)/c statistic 0.70-0.79) and the remaining three had poor discrimination (AUC < 0.70). No model accounted for competing mortality risk. The only study examining model calibration (but ignoring competing mortality) concluded that it was excellent. CONCLUSIONS: The reporting of models was incomplete. Model discrimination was at best acceptable, and calibration was rarely examined (and ignored competing mortality risk when examined). There is a need to derive better models that account for competing mortality risk and report calibration as well as discrimination.

New horizons in systems engineering and thinking to improve health and social care for older people.

Existing models for the safe, timely and effective delivery of health and social care are challenged by an ageing population. Services and care pathways are often optimised for single-disease management, while many older people are presenting with multiple long-term conditions and frailty. Systems engineering describes a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to change that is focused on people, system understanding, design and risk management. These principles are the basis of many established quality improvement (QI) tools in health and social care, but implementation has often been limited to single services or condition areas. Newer engineering techniques may help reshape more complex systems. Systems thinking is an essential component of this mindset to understand the underlying relationships and characteristics of a working system. It promotes the use of tools that map, measure and interrogate the dynamics of complex systems. In this New Horizons piece, we describe the evolution of systems approaches while noting the challenges of small-scale QI efforts that fail to address whole-system problems. The opportunities for novel soft-systems approaches are described, along with a recent update to the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety model, which includes human-centred design. Systems modelling and simulation techniques harness routine data to understand the functioning of complex health and social care systems. These tools could support better-informed system change by allowing comparison of simulated approaches before implementation, but better effectiveness evidence is required. Modern systems engineering and systems thinking techniques have potential to inform the redesign of services appropriate for the complex needs of older people.

Participation-related constructs and participation of children with additional support needs in schools.

AIM: To investigate associations between participation-related constructs and participation frequency and involvement in inclusive schools. METHOD: In this cross-sectional study, teachers of children with additional support needs, including intellectual disability, autism, and learning difficulties, completed measures. Participation-related constructs were measured using the School Participation Questionnaire; participation frequency and involvement were measured using the Participation and Environment Measure for Children and Youth. A series of multilevel linear mixed-effects regression models with maximum likelihood estimates and bootstrap confidence intervals with p-values were obtained. Final models included participation-related constructs and participation, controlling for demographic and diagnostic confounders (including age, sex, language, level of school support, and autism). RESULTS: Six hundred and eighty-eight children (448 [65.1%] males; mean age 8 years 7 months [range 4 years 10 months-12 years 13 months, standard deviation 2 years 1 months]) were assessed by 252 teachers. Across a series of models, participation-related constructs were consistently associated with more intensive participation (competence, environment, identity p < 0.001; symptoms p = 0.007), independent of confounders. More frequent participation remained associated with three of four participation-related constructs (competence, identity p < 0.001; environment p = 0.021). Age (p = 0.046), language (p = 0.002), and level of school support (p = 0.039) also remained significantly associated with frequency of participation. INTERPRETATION: Children with additional support needs in inclusive schools may have several participation barriers. Policies and interventions to improve participation are needed. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Across a series of models, participation-related constructs were associated with frequency and intensity of participation. Only participation-related constructs were associated with participation intensity. Demographic and diagnostic variables were associated with frequency, not intensity, of participation. Teacher assessment is valid for assessment of participation and participation-related constructs.

Social determinants of psychological distress in Sierra Leone.

PURPOSE: Growing evidence demonstrates that daily stressors such as family violence, unemployment, and living conditions play an important part in causing psychological distress. This paper investigates the impact of distressing events and day-to-day living conditions on psychological distress in the fragile context of Sierra Leone. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 904 adults (454 men, 450 women) in 5 districts of Sierra Leone. The survey questionnaire comprised the Sierra Leone Psychological Distress scale and measures of demographic variables and personal characteristics, current life circumstances and potentially distressing events. RESULTS: Multiple regression results identified three factors to be the greatest contributors to psychological distress: family conflict (ß = 0.185, p < 0.001) and inability to afford basic needs (ß = 0.175, p < 0.001). Gender differences were evident: factors predicting men's psychological distress included severe sickness or injury (ß = 0.203, p < 0.001) and being unable to afford basic needs (ß = 0.190, p < 0.001); for women, predicting factors were family conflict (ß = 0.212, p < 0.001), perceived poor health (ß = 0.192, p < 0.001) and inability to afford basic needs (ß = 0.190, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Initiatives to promote good mental health and psychosocial wellbeing in Sierra Leone should focus on enhancing income-generating and employment opportunities, promoting access to education, and strengthening family relationships.

Annual Research Review: A multilevel bioecological analysis of factors influencing the mental health and psychosocial well-being of refugee children.

BACKGROUND: This paper revisits the themes of an influential 1993 review regarding the factors shaping the mental health and psychosocial well-being of refugees to take stock of developments in the evidence base and conceptualisation of issues for refugee children over the last 25 years. METHODS: The study deployed a systematic search strategy. This initially identified 784 papers, which was reduced to 65 studies following application of inclusion and exclusion criteria. We used a later iteration of Bronfenbrenner's bioecological model of human development - the PPCT model - to consolidate evidence. RESULTS: We identify a range of risk and protective factors operating at individual, familial, community and institutional and policy levels that influence outcomes for refugee children. The dynamics shaping the interaction of these influences are linked to the life course principles of socio-historical time and developmental age, proximal processes and child agency. CONCLUSIONS: Actions at individual, familial, community, school, institutional and policy levels all have potential traction on mental health and psychosocial well-being of refugee children. However, evidence suggests that greatest impact will be secured by multilevel interventions addressing synergies between ecological systems, approaches engaging proximal processes (including parenting programmes) and interventions facilitating the agency of the developing refugee child.

Identifying opportunities to engage communities with social mobilisation activities to tackle NCDs in El Salvador in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Social mobilisation is potentially a key tool in the prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in fragile settings. This formative study addressed existing and potential social mobilisation mechanisms seeking behaviour to tackle NCDs in El Salvador, with an emphasis on the implications in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted 19 semi-structured interviews with health workers, government officials, NGO leaders, and community members. Interviews addressed mechanisms for social mobilisation which existed prior to COVID-19, the ways in which these mechanisms tackled NCDs, the impact of COVID-19 on social mobilisation activities and new, emerging mechanisms for social mobilisation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Findings indicate a growing awareness of NCDs within communities, with social mobilisation activities seen as valuable in tackling NCDs. However, major barriers to NCD prevention and treatment provision remain, with COVID-19 constraining many possible social mobilisation activities, leaving NCD patients with less support. Factors linked with effective social mobilisation of communities for NCD prevention included strong engagement of community health teams within community structures and the delivery of NCD prevention and management messages through community meetings with trusted health professionals or community members. There are gender differences in the experience of NCDs and women were generally more engaged with social mobilisation activities than men. In the context of COVID-19, traditional forms of social mobilisation were challenged, and new, virtual forms emerged. However, these new forms of engagement did not benefit all, especially those in hard-to-reach rural areas. In these contexts, specific traditional forms of mobilisation such as through radio (where possible) and trusted community leaders - became increasingly important. CONCLUSIONS: New mechanisms of fostering social mobilisation include virtual connectors such as mobile phones, which enable mobilisation through platforms such as WhatsApp, Facebook and Twitter. However, traditional forms of social mobilisation hold value for those without access to such technology. Therefore, a combination of new and traditional mechanisms for social mobilisation hold potential for the future development of social mobilisation strategies in El Salvador and, as appropriate, in other fragile health contexts.

An analysis of policy and funding priorities of global actors regarding noncommunicable disease in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including mental health, have become a major concern in low- and middle-income countries. Despite increased attention to them over the past decade, progress toward addressing NCDs has been slow. A lack of bold policy commitments has been suggested as one of the contributors to limited progress in NCD prevention and management. However, the policies of key global actors (bilateral, multilateral, and not-for-profit organisations) have been understudied. METHODS: This study aimed to map the key global actors investing in action regarding NCDs and review their policies to examine the articulation of priorities regarding NCDs. Narrative synthesis of 70 documents and 31 policy papers was completed, and related to data collated from the Global Health Data Visualisation Tool. RESULTS: In 2019 41% of development assistance for health committed to NCDs came from private philanthropies, while that for other global health priorities from this source was just 20%. Through a range of channels, bilateral donors were the other major source of NCD funding (contributing 41% of NCD funding). The UK and the US were the largest bilateral investors in NCDs, each contributing 8%. However, NCDs are still under-prioritised within bilateral portfolios - receiving just 0.48% of US funding and 1.66% of the UK. NGOs were the key channels of funding for NCDs, spending 48% of the funds from donors in 2019. The reviewed literature generally focused on NCD policies of WHO, with policies of multilateral and bilateral donors given limited attention. The analysis of policies indicated a limited prioritisation of NCDs in policy documents. NCDs are framed in the policies as a barrier to economic growth, poverty reduction, and health system sustainability. Bilateral donors prioritise prevention, while multilateral actors offer policy options for NCD prevention and care. Even where stated as a priority, however, funding allocations are not aligned. CONCLUSION: The growing threat of NCDs and their drivers are increasingly recognised. However, global actors' policy priorities and funding allocations need to align better to address these NCD threats. Given the level of their investment and engagement, more research is needed into the role of private philanthropies and NGOs in this area.

Community-based participation of children with and without disabilities.

AIM: To describe and compare the socio-demographic characteristics and community-based participation of children with and without disabilities. METHOD: This cross-sectional study reports data on 1073 children with disabilities (663 males, 410 females) and 11 122 children without disabilities (5617 males, 5505 females) aged 10 to 12 years from the fifth sweep of the Millennium Cohort Study. χ2 was used to explore differences between the two groups. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationships between childhood disability (dependent variable) and socio-demographic characteristics. Logistic regression models were also used to examine the associations between childhood disability (dependent variable) and participation in community-based activities. RESULTS: Children with disabilities were more likely to be male, have psychosocial and behavioural problems, live in single-parent households, and have a parent with a longstanding illness. Patterns of community-based participation were similar between children with and without disabilities. However, the extent to which the two groups participated differed. Children with disabilities participated with lower frequency in unstructured physical activities (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.95-2.99), organized physical activities (adjusted OR 2.29; 95% CI: 1.83-2.86), religious gatherings (adjusted OR 2.08; 95% CI: 1.35-3.20), and getting together with friends (adjusted OR 3.31; 95% CI: 2.61-4.20). INTERPRETATION: Socio-demographic characteristics differed between children with and without disabilities. Children with disabilities had greater restriction in participation compared to peers without disabilities. Participation promoting interventions are required to support the participation of children with disabilities in social and physical activities. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Patterns of community-based participation were similar between children with and without disabilities. Children with disabilities had lower frequency of participation in physical activities, religious gatherings, and getting together with friends.

Family factors associated with participation of children with disabilities: a systematic review.

AIM: The aim of this review was to synthesize empirical evidence of family factors associated with participation of children with disabilities aged 5 to 12 years to inform the development of family-centred participation-fostering interventions. METHOD: A systematic search was performed for articles published in English between 2001 and 2017 in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, and ASSIA following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Quality of evidence was appraised using the Research Triangle Institute Item Bank. Family factors associated with participation were identified and assessed using a multistage 'semi-quantitative' approach. RESULTS: Thirty studies were included in the review. Four non-modifiable 'status' factors consistently associated with participation were parental ethnicity, parental education, family type, and family socio-economic status. Six modifiable 'process' factors with consistent associations with participation were parental mental and physical health functioning, parental self-efficacy beliefs, parental support, parental time, family preferences, and activity orientation. INTERPRETATION: Rehabilitation professionals should direct their focus towards modifiable family factors as primary targets for family-centred interventions. Strategies that can improve families' access to information, counselling, and community support services are likely to support children's participation by empowering families and optimizing their health and well-being. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Non-modifiable 'status' and modifiable 'process' factors are important in participation of children with disabilities. Disadvantaged family circumstances shaped by status factors are associated with reduced participation. Key process factors for intervention are parental mental and physical health and parental self-efficacy beliefs. Other important process factors for intervention are parental support and time, family preferences, and activity orientation.

FACTORES FAMILIARES ASOCIADOS CON LA PARTICIPACIÓN DE NIÑOS CON DISCAPACIDAD: UN ESTUDIO SISTEMÁTICO: OBJETIVO: El objetivo de esta revisión fue sintetizar la evidencia empírica de los factores familiares asociados con la participación de niños con discapacidad entre los 5 y 12 años para informar el desarrollo de intervenciones que fomentan la participación centrada en la familia METODO: Una búsqueda sistemática fue realizada en artículos publicados en ingles entre 2001 y 2017 en MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, y ASSIA de acuerdo con los items reportados preferentes para guías de Búsqueda Sistemática y Meta-Análisis. La calidad de la evidencia fue evaluada utilizando el Banco de Items del Research Triangle Institute (RTI). Fueron identificados los factores familiares asociados con la participación y evaluados utilizando un enfoque semicuantitativo de varias etapas. RESULTADOS: Fueron incluidos 30 estudios en esta revisión. Cuatro factores no modificables de ¨estado¨ asociados sistemáticamente con la participación fueron la etnia de los padres, el nivel de educación de los padres, el tipo de familia, y el estatus socioeconómico de las familias. Seis factores de ¨proceso ¨modificables con asociaciones consistentes con la participación fueron el funcionamiento de salud física y mental de los padres, creencia de autoeficacia de los padres, soporte parenteral, tiempo de los padres, preferencias familiares, y orientación a la actividad. INTERPRETACION: Los profesionales de la rehabilitación deben dirigir su foco hacia los factores modificables como objetivo primario para las intervenciones centradas en la familia. Estrategias que puedan mejorar el acceso de las familias a la información , asesoramiento, y servicios de apoyo comunitario que apoyen la participación de los niños y empoderar a las familias y optimizar su salud y bienestar.

FATORES FAMILIARES ASSOCIADOS COM PARTICIPAÇÃO EM CRIANÇAS COM INCAPACIDADES: UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA: OBJETIVO: O objetivo desta revisão foi sintetizar a evidência empírica de fatores familiares associados com participação de crianças com incapacidades de 5 a 12 anos para informar o desenvolvimento de intevenções centradas na família que promovam a participação. MÉTODO: Uma busca sistemática foi realizada por artigos publicados em ingles entre 2001 e 2007 na Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, e ASSIA seguindo as diretrizes para Itens preferidos a serem reportados em revisões sistemáticas. A qualidade da evidência foi avaliada usando o Banco de Itens Do Institututo do Triângulo das Pesquisas (ITR). Fatores familiares associados à participação foram identificados e avaliados usando uma abordagem semi-quantitativa multi-estágios. RESULTADOS: Trinta estudos foram incluídos na revisão. Quatro fatores com estado "não-modificável" consistentemente associados com participação foram etnia parental, educação parental, tipo de família e situação sócio-econômica da família. Seis fatores de "processo" modificáveis com associações consistentes com participação foram saúde e funcionamento mental e físico dos pais, auto-eficácia parental, apoio parental, tempo parental, preferências familiares e orientacões para atividades. INTERPRETAÇÃO: Profissionais de reabilitação devem direcionar o foco para fatores familiares potencialmente modificáveis como alvos primários para intervenções centradas na família. Estratégias que podem melhorar o acesso da família a informação, aconselhamento e serviços de suporte na comunidade têm probabilidade de apoiar a participação da criança por empoderar famílias e otimizar sua saúde e bem estar.

Relationship Between Fatalistic Cancer Beliefs and Risky Health Behaviors.

BACKGROUND: There is limited research on how fatalism influences risky health behaviors that are linked to higher cancer risks. This study investigates the relationship between risky health behaviors (tobacco smoking, electronic cigarette use, and heavy alcohol drinking) and fatalistic cancer beliefs while controlling for health care-related self-efficacy and sociodemographic and clinical factors among adults without a history of cancer. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from the 2020 Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 5 Cycle 4. The study sample included noninstitutionalized adults (aged ≥18 years without a self-reported cancer history (n = 2464). The outcome variable was risky health behaviors comprised of tobacco smoking, electronic cigarette use, and heavy alcohol drinking. We combined these 3 risky behaviors into a binary variable (0, not having risky health behavior; 1, having ≥1 risky health behavior). The key independent variable was cancer fatalistic beliefs. We used descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 50% of the sample were women, 64.7% of participants self-identified as non-Hispanic White, 16.4% as Hispanic, and 10.6% as non-Hispanic Black. About 43% of participants reported having at least one risky health behavior. While holding all other factors constant, each unit increase in cancer fatalism score was associated with 30.0% higher odds of increased risky health behaviors (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.62, P = .021) among adults without a history of cancer. CONCLUSION: By understanding the relationship between cancer-related fatalistic beliefs and risky health behaviors, cancer prevention outreach programs can be personalized to suit the unique needs of specific individuals and communities.

Barriers to access to cancer care for patients from the conflict-affected region of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic: A qualitative study.

Access to essential health services is a basic human right, yet many cancer patients living in conflict-affected regions face multiple obstacles to service use. The (former) Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was a conflict-affected region in the South Caucasus populated predominantly by ethnic Armenians. Multiple acute armed conflicts, the recent military occupation of the region, and the prolonged military blockade of the Lachin Corridor (a humanitarian corridor connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia) exacerbated existing social, health, economic, and political fragilities in this region. As a result, cancer services were disrupted, with limited clarity on how the ongoing military blockade of a humanitarian corridor affected cancer patients' experiences of accessing cancer care locally and in bordering Armenia. Our study aimed to describe the experiences of patients from Nagorno-Karabakh in accessing the cancer care services they needed. We conducted remote semi-structured interviews with adult (aged ≥18 years) cancer patients receiving cancer care from three university hospitals in Armenia and face-to-face interviews with cancer care professionals from these hospitals. Interviews were conducted during the blockade of the Lachin Corridor between March and May 2023. Data were analysed thematically using a deductive approach. Twelve adult cancer patients (9 women) and 12 cancer care professionals participated. A key barrier to accessing cancer services was attributed to the Azerbaijani military occupation of the region and the blockade of a major roadway connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Patients talked in length about the challenges of finding transport and travelling long distances to reach essential cancer services in Armenia. Policies of free anti-cancer medication provision and decentralised medication supply were paused because of the military occupation, affecting patients' timely access to anti-cancer medication. Out-of-pocket expenses for treatment, anti-cancer medication, travel, and temporary accommodation in Armenia placed a significant financial burden on cancer patients, exacerbated by the humanitarian crisis. Conflict-affected regions blockaded by military forces lack the capacity and targeted support to sustain their essential health services and provide care to those in need of life-saving treatments. Coordinated action from national and international organisations and governments is urgently needed to enhance humanitarian assistance and healthcare support to patients, their families and wider communities affected by military blockades and armed conflicts.

The impact of place on multimorbidity: A systematic scoping review.

Multimorbidity, commonly defined as the co-existence of two or more long-term conditions, is a major global public health challenge with significant impacts for health and social care systems. There is a substantial body of work identifying different individual- and household-level determinants of multimorbidity, yet the role of place-based characteristics in affecting multimorbidity remains limited. This systematic scoping review identifies place-based risk factors for multimorbidity and further synthesises the potential pathways explaining these relationships using longitudinal evidence. By systematically searching seven major databases, such as Medline, Embase, and Web of Science, using relevant search terms (e.g., MeSH) relating to place-based risk factors and multimorbidity, 76 out of 7761 studies were included for evidence synthesis. We include studies exploring the relationship between place-based risk factors and multimorbidity among the general population older than 18 years old in the setting of community-dwelling, primary, and secondary care. We identified 12 types of place-based risk factors, with the impacts of area-level deprivation/SES, pollution, and urban/rurality on multimorbidity being most frequently considered and with the most consistent findings, with people living in more deprived/low SES, highly polluted, or more urbanised areas having increased risks of multimorbidity. Further, the impact of these place-based risk factors on multimorbidity varied according to the operationalisation of the multimorbidity measure. We also identified that the impacts of other types of place-based factors on multimorbidity remain underexplored, such as social cohesion and greenspace. Finally, using these longitudinal findings, we propose a conceptual framework linking place and multimorbidity. We suggest that future studies explore a wider range of place-level environmental exposures and use more precise measures, exploit electronic health records to implement more consistent and reproducible measurements of multimorbidity, moreover, make greater use of longitudinal study designs or analytical approaches better suited to identifying causal processes.

Barriers and Opportunities for WHO "Best Buys" Non-communicable Disease Policy Adoption and Implementation From a Political Economy Perspective: A Complexity Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Improving the adoption and implementation of policies to curb non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major challenge for better global health. The adoption and implementation of such policies remain deficient in various contexts, with limited insights into the facilitating and inhibiting factors. These policies have traditionally been treated as technical solutions, neglecting the critical influence of political economy dynamics. Moreover, the complex nature of these interventions is often not adequately incorporated into evidence for policy-makers. This study aims to systematically review and evaluate the factors affecting NCD policy adoption and implementation. METHODS: We conducted a complex systematic review of articles discussing the adoption and implementation of World Health Organization's (WHO's) "best buys" NCD policies. We identified political economy factors and constructed a causal loop diagram (CLD) program theory to elucidate the interplay between factors influencing NCD policy adoption and implementation. A total of 157 papers met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Our CLD highlights a central feedback loop encompassing three vital variables: (1) the ability to define, (re)shape, and pass appropriate policy into law; (2) the ability to implement the policy (linked to the enforceability of the policy and to addressing NCD local burden); and (3) ability to monitor progress, evaluate and correct the course. Insufficient context-specific data impedes the formulation and enactment of suitable policies, particularly in areas facing multiple disease burdens. Multisectoral collaboration plays a pivotal role in both policy adoption and implementation. Effective monitoring and accountability systems significantly impact policy implementation. The commercial determinants of health (CDoH) serve as a major barrier to defining, adopting, and implementing tobacco, alcohol, and diet-related policies. CONCLUSION: To advance global efforts, we recommend focusing on the development of robust accountability, monitoring, and evaluation systems, ensuring transparency in private sector engagement, supporting context-specific data collection, and effectively managing the CDoH. A system thinking approach can enhance the implementation of complex public health interventions.

Performance of models for predicting 1-year to 3-year mortality in older adults: a systematic review of externally validated models.

Mortality prediction models support identifying older adults with short life expectancy for whom clinical care might need modifications. We systematically reviewed external validations of mortality prediction models in older adults (ie, aged 65 years and older) with up to 3 years of follow-up. In March, 2023, we conducted a literature search resulting in 36 studies reporting 74 validations of 64 unique models. Model applicability was fair but validation risk of bias was mostly high, with 50 (68%) of 74 validations not reporting calibration. Morbidities (most commonly cardiovascular diseases) were used as predictors by 45 (70%) of 64 of models. For 1-year prediction, 31 (67%) of 46 models had acceptable discrimination, but only one had excellent performance. Models with more than 20 predictors were more likely to have acceptable discrimination (risk ratio [RR] vs <10 predictors 1·68, 95% CI 1·06-2·66), as were models including sex (RR 1·75, 95% CI 1·12-2·73) or predicting risk during comprehensive geriatric assessment (RR 1·86, 95% CI 1·12-3·07). Development and validation of better-performing mortality prediction models in older people are needed.

The role of financial security in loneliness or sadness among Medicare-enrolled cancer survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to estimate the relative decreased rate of financial security and increased rate of loneliness or sadness during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigate the association between financial security and loneliness or sadness among Medicare beneficiaries with a cancer history. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We examined population-based, cross-sectional data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey COVID-19 Winter 2021 survey. The study cohort included 1,632 Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥65 years) with self-reported cancer history. The outcome was feelings of loneliness or sadness, and the independent variable was financial security during the 2020-2021 winter surge of COVID-19. We conducted weighted descriptive statistics, a cross-tabulation analysis, and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 18.8% of cancer survivors reported increased feelings of loneliness or sadness and 11.2% reported decreased financial security during the 2020-2021 winter surge of COVID-19. Cancer survivors who reported decreased financial security had 93% higher odds of increased feelings of loneliness or sadness compared to those who reported feeling more or about the same financial security (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.93; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.25-3.01; p <0.004). DISCUSSION: Decreased financial security and increased feelings of loneliness or sadness were prevalent among cancer survivors. Additional screenings and interventions beyond what are currently available are needed to ease the socioeconomic vulnerabilities experienced by cancer survivors.

Social, health and economic impact of COVID-19: Healthy Ageing In Scotland (HAGIS) - a protocol for a mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have reaped adverse physical, psychological, social and economic effects, with older adults disproportionally affected. Psychological consequences of the pandemic include fear, worry and anxiety. COVID-19 fear may impact individuals' mitigation behaviours, influencing their willingness to (re)engage in health, social and economic behaviours. This study seeks (1) to develop a robust and evidence-based questionnaire to measure the prevalence of COVID-19 fear among older adults (aged ≥50) in Scotland and (2) to examine the impact of COVID-19 fear on the willingness of older adults to (re)engage across health, social and economic domains as society adjusts to the 'new normal' and inform policy and practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This mixed-method study includes a large-scale multimodal survey, focus groups and interviews with older adults (aged ≥50) living in Scotland, and an email-based 'e-Delphi' consultation with professionals working with older adults. The COVID-19 fear scale was developed and validated using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Survey data will be analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Thematic analysis will be used to analyse qualitative data. Survey and qualitative findings will be triangulated and used as the starting point for an 'e-Delphi' consensus consultation with expert stakeholders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the University of Stirling for multimodal survey development, fieldwork methodology and data management. Anonymised survey data will be deposited with the UK Data Service, with a link provided via the Gateway to Global Ageing. Qualitative data will be deposited with the University of Stirling online digital repository-DataSTORRE. A dedicated work package will oversee dissemination via a coproduced project website, conference presentations, rapid reports and national and international peer-reviewed journal articles. There is planned engagement with Scottish and UK policy makers to contribute to the UK government's COVID-19 recovery strategy.

Effectiveness of holistic assessment-based interventions for adults with multiple long-term conditions and frailty: an umbrella review of systematic reviews.

Holistic assessment-based interventions (HABIs) are effective in older people admitted to hospital, but it is unclear whether similar interventions are effective in adults with multiple long-term conditions or frailty in the community. We conducted an umbrella review to comprehensively evaluate the literature on HABIs for adults (aged ≥18 years) with multiple long-term conditions, and frailty. We searched eight databases for systematic reviews reporting on experimental or quasi-experimental studies. Of 9803 titles screened, we identified 29 eligible reviews (14 with meta-analysis) reporting on 14 types of HABIs. The evidence for the effectiveness of HABIs was largely inconsistent across different types of interventions, settings, and outcomes. We found evidence of no benefit from hospital HABIs on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and emergency department re-attendance, and evidence of no benefit from community HABIs on overall health-care utilisation rates, emergency department attendance, nursing home admissions, and mortality. The best evidence of effectiveness was for hospital comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) on nursing home admissions, keeping patients alive and in their own homes. There was some evidence of benefit from community CGA on hospital admissions, and from CGA spanning community and hospital settings on HRQoL. Patient-centred medical homes had beneficial effects on HRQoL, mental health, self-management, and hospital admissions.

Effectiveness of holistic assessment-based interventions in improving outcomes in adults with multiple long-term conditions and/or frailty: an umbrella review protocol.

OBJECTIVE: This umbrella review will synthesize evidence on the effectiveness of holistic assessment-based interventions in improving health outcomes in adults (aged ≥18) with multiple long-term conditions and/or frailty. INTRODUCTION: Health systems need effective, evidence-based interventions to improve health outcomes for adults with multiple long-term conditions. Holistic assessment-based interventions are effective in older people admitted to hospital (usually called "comprehensive geriatric assessments" in that context); however, the evidence is inconclusive on whether similar interventions are effective in community settings. INCLUSION CRITERIA: We will include systematic reviews examining the effectiveness of community and/or hospital holistic assessment-based interventions in improving health outcomes for community-dwelling and hospitalized adults aged ≥ 18 with multiple long-term conditions and/or frailty. METHODS: The review will follow the JBI methodology for umbrella reviews. MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, Scopus, ASSIA, Cochrane Library, and the TRIP Medical Database will be searched to identify reviews published in English from 2010 till the present. This will be followed by a manual search of reference lists of included reviews to identify additional reviews. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts against the selection criteria, followed by screening of full texts. Methodological quality will be assessed using the JBI critical appraisal checklist for systematic reviews and research syntheses and data will be extracted using an adapted and piloted JBI data extraction tool. The summary of findings will be presented in tabular format, with narrative descriptions and visual indications. The citation matrix will be generated and the corrected covered area calculated to analyze the overlap in primary studies across the reviews. REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022363217.