Evaluating the Impact of Meningococcal Vaccines With Synthetic Controls.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has a low and unpredictable incidence, presenting challenges for real-world evaluations of meningococcal vaccines. Traditionally, meningococcal vaccine impact is evaluated by predicting counterfactuals from pre-immunization IMD incidences, possibly controlling for IMD in unvaccinated age groups, but the selection of controls can influence results. We retrospectively applied a synthetic control (SC) method, previously used for pneumococcal disease, to data from 2 programs for immunization of infants against serogroups B and C IMD in England and Brazil. Time series of infectious/noninfectious diseases in infants and IMD cases in older unvaccinated age groups were used as candidate controls, automatically combined in a SC through Bayesian variable selection. SC closely predicted IMD in absence of vaccination, adjusting for nontrivial changes in IMD incidence. Vaccine impact estimates were in line with previous assessments. IMD cases in unvaccinated age groups were the most frequent SC-selected controls. Similar results were obtained when excluding IMD from control sets and using other diseases only, particularly respiratory diseases and measles. Using non-IMD controls may be important where there are herd immunity effects. SC is a robust and flexible method that addresses uncertainty introduced when equally plausible controls exhibit different post-immunization behaviors, allowing objective comparisons of IMD programs between countries.

A re-assessment of 4CMenB vaccine effectiveness against serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease in England based on an incidence model.

BACKGROUND: The four-component serogroup B meningococcal 4CMenB vaccine (Bexsero, GSK) has been routinely given to all infants in the United Kingdom at 2, 4 and 12 months of age since September 2015. After 3 years, Public Health England (PHE) reported a 75% [95% confidence interval 64%; 81%] reduction in the incidence of serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in age groups eligible to be fully vaccinated. In contrast, vaccine effectiveness (VE) evaluated in the same immunization program applying the screening method was not statistically significant. We re-analyzed the data using an incidence model. METHODS: Aggregate data-stratified by age, year and doses received-were provided by PHE: serogroup B IMD case counts for the entire population of England (years 2011-2018) and 4CMenB vaccine uptake in infants. We combined uptake with national population estimates to obtain counts of vaccinated and unvaccinated person-time by age and time. We re-estimated VE comparing incidence rates in vaccinated and non-vaccinated subjects using a Bayesian Poisson model for case counts with person-time data as an offset. The model was adjusted for age, time and number of doses received. RESULTS: The incidence model showed that cases decreased until 2013-2014, followed by an increasing trend that continued in the non-vaccinated population during the immunization program. VE in fully vaccinated subjects (three doses) was 80.1% [95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 70.3%; 86.7%]. After a single dose, VE was 33.5% [12.4%; 49.7%]95%BCI and after two doses, 78.7% [71.5%; 84.5%]95%BCI. We estimated that vaccination averted 312 cases [252; 368]95%BCI between 2015 and 2018. VE was in line with the previously reported incidence reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of VE had higher precision than previous estimates based on the screening method, which were statistically not significant, and in line with the 75% incidence reduction previously reported by PHE. When disease incidence is low and vaccine uptake is high, the screening method applied to cases exclusively from the population eligible for vaccination may not be precise enough and may produce misleading point-estimates. Precise and accurate VE estimates are fundamental to inform public health decision making. VE assessment can be enhanced using models that leverage data on subjects not eligible for vaccination.

Fast and accurate dynamic estimation of field effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines with high accuracy and precision can be challenging due to the low incidence of the invasive disease, which ranges between 0.5 and 1 cases per 100,000 in Europe and North America. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is usually estimated with a screening method that combines in one formula the proportion of meningococcal disease cases that have been vaccinated and the proportion of vaccinated in the overall population. Due to the small number of cases, initial point estimates are affected by large uncertainties and several years may be required to estimate VE with a small confidence interval. METHODS: We used a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) approach to estimate the effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines, based on stochastic simulations of a dynamic model for meningococcal transmission and vaccination. We calibrated the model to describe two immunization campaigns: the campaign against MenC in England and the Bexsero campaign that started in the UK in September 2015. First, the MCML method provided estimates for both the direct and indirect effects of the MenC vaccine that were validated against results published in the literature. Then, we assessed the performance of the MCML method in terms of time gain with respect to the screening method under different assumptions of VE for Bexsero. RESULTS: MCML estimates of VE for the MenC immunization campaign are in good agreement with results based on the screening method and carriage studies, yet characterized by smaller confidence intervals and obtained using only incidence data collected within 2 years of scheduled vaccination. Also, we show that the MCML method could provide a fast and accurate estimate of the effectiveness of Bexsero, with a time gain, with respect to the screening method, that could range from 2 to 15 years, depending on the value of VE measured from field data. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that inference methods based on dynamic computational models can be successfully used to quantify in near real time the effectiveness of immunization campaigns against Neisseria meningitidis. Such an approach could represent an important tool to complement and support traditional observational studies, in the initial phase of a campaign.

Incidence and Recurrence of Urinary Tract Infections Caused by Uropathogenic Escherichia coli: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Purpose: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most common bacterial infections, with uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) as the main etiologic agent of uncomplicated UTIs (uUTIs). The prevalence of uUTis caused by organisms with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is increasing worldwide, complexifying the disease management and increasing the risk of complications. In efforts to develop new strategies for uUTI prevention, it is imperative to understand factors associated with the occurrence of new episodes. Patients and Methods: This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the incidence of uUTIs caused by UPEC (UPEC-uUTIs) or unknown etiology (untested uUTIs) in adults aged ≥18 years receiving care in a San Francisco healthcare system. Results: During 2014-2019, 1087 UPEC-uUTI and 4106 untested uUTI cases were documented, of which 324 (29.8%; 95% confidence interval: 27.1%-32.6%) and 1030 (25.1%; 95% confidence interval: 23.8%-26.4%) were followed by ≥1 new episode of uUTI within 12 months. In the UPEC-uUTI cohort, male gender, diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, and prior uUTI were risk factors for new episodes of uUTI. At the time of first UPEC-uUTI diagnosis, antimicrobial prescriptions were retrieved for 41.1% of cases. When tested, AMR was most frequently reported for trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole or trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescribed with other antimicrobials. Conclusion: Our study provides important information on the incidence and risk of repeated episodes of uUTIs, as well as on AMR related to them.

Frequency of bloodstream infections caused by six key antibiotic-resistant pathogens for prioritization of research and discovery of new therapies in Europe: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: To prioritize healthcare investments, ranking of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria should be based on accurate incidence data. OBJECTIVES: We performed a systematic review to estimate frequency measures of antimicrobial resistance for six key bacteria causing bloodstream infections (BSI) in European countries. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase databases, and the ECRAID-Base Epidemiological-Network platform. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included studies and surveillance systems assessing resistance-percentage, prevalence, or incidence-density of BSI because of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Escherichia coli, third-generation cephalosporins-resistant E. coli and K. pneumoniae, vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. METHODS: Reviewers independently assessed published data and evaluated study quality with the modified Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool. Pooled estimates were determined using random effects meta-analysis. Consistency of data was assessed using random effects meta-regression (Wald test, p > 0.05). RESULTS: We identified 271 studies and 52 surveillance systems from 32 European countries. Forty-five studies (16%) reported on BSI, including 180 frequency measures most commonly as resistance-percentage (88, 48.9%). Among 309 frequency measures extracted from 24 (46%) surveillance systems, 278 (89%) were resistance-percentages. Frequency measures of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and vancomycin-resistant E. faecium BSI were more frequently reported from Southern Europe and Western Europe (80%), whereas carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa BSI from Northern Europe and Western Europe (88%). Highest resistance-percentages were detected for carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii (66% in Central Eastern Europe) and carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (62.8% in Southern Europe). Pooled estimates showed lower resistance-percentages in community versus healthcare-associated infections and in children versus adults. Estimates from studies and surveillance systems were mostly consistent among European regions. The included data was of medium quality. DISCUSSION: Pathogen-specific frequency measures of antimicrobial resistance in BSI are insufficient to inform antibiotic stewardship and research and development strategies. Improving data collection and standardization of frequency measures is urgently needed.

A systematic review on the excess health risk of antibiotic-resistant bloodstream infections for six key pathogens in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat, which requires novel intervention strategies, for which priority pathogens and settings need to be determined. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated pathogen-specific excess health burden of drug-resistant bloodstream infections (BSIs) in Europe. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and grey literature for the period January 1990 to May 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies that reported burden data for six key drug-resistant pathogens: carbapenem-resistant (CR) Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii, third-generation cephalosporin or CR Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. Excess health outcomes compared with drug-susceptible BSIs or uninfected patients. For MRSA and third-generation cephalosporin E. coli and K. pneumoniae BSIs, five or more European studies were identified. For all others, the search was extended to high-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: Paediatric and adult patients diagnosed with drug-resistant BSI. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: An adapted version of the Joanna-Briggs Institute assessment tool. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: Random-effect models were used to pool pathogen-specific burden estimates. RESULTS: We screened 7154 titles, 1078 full-texts and found 56 studies on BSIs. Most studies compared outcomes of drug-resistant to drug-susceptible BSIs (46/56, 82.1%), and reported mortality (55/56 studies, 98.6%). The pooled crude estimate for excess all-cause mortality of drug-resistant versus drug-susceptible BSIs ranged from OR 1.31 (95% CI 1.03-1.68) for CR P. aeruginosa to OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.62-7.32) for CR K. pneumoniae. Pooled crude estimates comparing mortality to uninfected patients were available for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus and MRSA BSIs (OR of 11.19 [95% CI 6.92-18.09] and OR 6.18 [95% CI 2.10-18.17], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Drug-resistant BSIs are associated with increased mortality, with the magnitude of the effect influenced by pathogen type and comparator. Future research should address crucial knowledge gaps in pathogen- and infection-specific burdens to guide development of novel interventions.

Modelling the impact of 4CMenB and MenACWY meningococcal combined vaccination strategies including potential 4CMenB cross-protection: An application to England.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), an uncommon but severe disease, affects mainly infants, young children and adolescents. Meningococcal B (4CMenB) and ACWY (MenACWY) vaccines targeting IMD-causing serogroups B and A, C, W and Y, respectively are available for these mostly-affected age-groups. The objective was to assess the impact of 4CMenB and/or MenACWY vaccination strategies on IMD in England, considering MenACWY carriage protection and potential cross-protection of 4CMenB against non-B serogroups. A novel dynamic transmission model was developed, accounting for vaccine characteristics, with separate variables for meningococcal carriage and IMD for three groups: B; ACWY; and 'Other' mostly non-pathogenic serogroups. A dynamic force of infection is assumed for each group. The model analysis uses data from England before 2015 (when 4CMenB and MenACWY were introduced), and accounts for existing MenC vaccination impact. Compared with no vaccination, the smallest decrease in IMD cases is observed for MenACWY strategies (toddler and/or adolescent). 4CMenB (infant or infant/adolescent), alone or with MenACWY, always results in the most rapid and steep decline in IMD cases. Combined strategies with adolescent 4CMenB result in the largest decrease in IMD cases, whereas adding MenACWY for toddlers has a minor impact. With potential 4CMenB cross-protection, 4CMenB infant strategy has a notable impact on reduction of MenW and MenY IMD cases in strategies where MenACWY toddler and/or adolescent vaccination is absent. This novel model allows for analysis of combined 4CMenB and MenACWY strategies including potential 4CMenB cross-protection. In settings comparable to England, a comprehensive meningococcal vaccination programme should include infant 4CMenB as essential building block. Decisions to include MenACWY toddler programmes should consider herd effects of MenACWY adolescent programmes and 4CMenB potential cross-protection effects. Extending 4CMenB infant and MenACWY adolescent programmes with a 4CMenB adolescent programme allows for the largest overall reduction in IMD cases.