Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Cryptic temporal changes in stock composition explain the decline of a flounder (Platichthys spp.) assemblage.

Unobserved diversity, such as undetected genetic structure or the presence of cryptic species, is of concern for the conservation and management of global biodiversity in the face of threatening anthropogenic processes. For instance, unobserved diversity can lead to overestimation of maximum sustainable yields and therefore to overharvesting of the more vulnerable stock components within unrecognized mixed-stock fisheries. We used DNA from archival (otolith) samples to reconstruct the temporal (1976-2011) genetic makeup of two mixed-stock flounder fisheries in the Åland Sea (AS) and the Gulf of Finland (GoF). Both fisheries have hitherto been managed as a single stock of European flounders (Platichthys flesus), but were recently revealed to target two closely related species: the pelagic-spawning P. flesus and the newly described, demersal-spawning P. solemdali. While the AS and GoF fisheries were assumed to consist exclusively of P. solemdali, P. flesus dominated the GoF flounder assemblage (87% of total) in 1983, had disappeared (0%) by 1993, and remained in low proportions (10%-11%) thereafter. In the AS, P. solemdali dominated throughout the sampling period (>70%), and P. flesus remained in very low proportions after 1983. The disappearance of P. flesus from the GoF coincides in time with a dramatic (~60%) decline in commercial landings and worsening environmental conditions in P. flesus' northernmost spawning ground, the Eastern Gotland Basin, in the preceding 4-6 years. These results are compatible with the hypothesis that P. flesus in the GoF is a sink population relying on larval subsidies from southern spawning grounds and the cause of their disappearance is a cessation of larval supply. Our results highlight the importance of uncovering unobserved genetic diversity and studying spatiotemporal changes in the relative contribution of different stock components, as well as the underlying environmental causes, to manage marine resources in the age of rapid anthropogenic change.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.