The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran.

Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021-2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.

Monitoring and eco-toxicity effect of paraben-based pollutants in sediments/seawater, north of the Persian Gulf.

The current work is documented as the first record of the characteristics, removal efficiency, partitioning behavior, fate, and eco-toxicological effects of paraben congeners in a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP, stabilization ponds) and hospital WWTPs (septic tank and activated sludge), as well as seawater-sediments collected from runoff estuarine stations (RES) and coastal stations (CS) of the north of the Persian Gulf. The median values of Σparabens at the raw wastewater and effluent of the studied WWTPs were 1884 ng/L and 468 ng/L, respectively. The activated sludge system had a greater removal efficiency (56.10%) in removing ∑parabens than the septic tank (45.05%) and stabilization pond (35.54%). The discharge rates of methyl paraben (MeP) was computed to be 2.23, 21.18, and 9.12 g/d/1000 people for stabilization ponds, septic tank, and activated sludge, respectively. Median concentrations of Σparabens in seawater (103.42 ng/L) and sediments (322.05 ng/g dw) from RES stations were significantly larger than from CS stations (61.2 and 262.0 ng/g dw in seawater and sediments, respectively) (P < 0.05). The median of field-based koc for Σparabens was 130.81 cm3/g in RES stations and 189.51 cm3/g in CS stations. It was observed that the concentration of parabens could have negative impacts on some living aquatic populations (invertebrates and bacteria), but the risk was not significant for fishes and algae.

Urinary level of un-metabolized parabens in women working in beauty salons.

Parabens are a group of chemical additive extensively utilized in various health care products and ubiquitously observed in the different environmental matrixes. Nevertheless, the exposure of women working in beauty salons to these pollutants is not well-documented. For this purpose, 50.00 women working in beauty salons were chosen as the exposed group (EG) and 35.00 housewives were chosen as the control group (GC). The concentration of methyl paraben (MeP), ethyl paraben (EtP), butyl paraben (BuP), propyl paraben (PrP), benzyl paraben (BzP), heptyl paraben (HepP), and para-hydroxybenzoic acid (4-HB) metabolite were quantified in the collected urine samples. It was seen that paraben sexist with a high detection frequency (DF) in the urine of women working in beauty salons. The results also revealed that the significant difference between the urinary parabens level in the EG and CG (P value < 0.05). The median concentration of Σparaben and HB-4 metabolite in the before exposure (BE) samples was 124.00 and 219.00 µg/L, while in the after exposure (AE) samples, it was 156.00 and 249.00 µg/L, respectively. Moreover, the parabens levels in the AE samples were considerably higher than in BE samples in women working in beauty salons (P value < 0.05). This research also documented that "personal care products (PCPs) usage" can be known as a leading factor for the urinary paraben level in the studied individuals. The median total estimated daily intakes (TEsDI) for MeP, EtP, and PrP for the studied women were obtained as 8.02, 4.57, and 7.88 µg/L respectively. Also, a significant and positive association was observed between EtP, PrP as well as BuP and 8-OhdG (as a DNA oxidative stress biomarker) (P value < 0.01). Further, a significant and positive association was found between EtP as well as BuP and some biomarkers of kidney damage (like uTIMP-1 and uKim-1). Accordingly, it can be stated that women working in beauty salons are at a high risk in terms of DNA oxidative stress and kidney damage.

Occurrence, spatial distribution, seasonal variations, potential sources, and inhalation-based health risk assessment of organic/inorganic pollutants in ambient air of Tehran.

The present study evaluated the concentrations, spatial distribution, seasonal variations, potential sources, and risk assessment of organic/inorganic pollutants in ambient air of Tehran city. Totally, 180 air samples were taken from 9 sampling stations from March 2018 to March 2019 and were analyzed to determine the concentrations of organic pollutants (BTEX compounds and PM2.5-bound PAHs) plus inorganic pollutants (PM2.5-bound metals and asbestos fibers). The results revealed that the mean concentrations of ∑ PAHs, BTEX, ∑ heavy metals, and asbestos fibers were 5.34 ng/m3, 60.55 µg/m3, 8585.12 ng/m3, and 4.13 fiber/ml in the cold season, respectively, and 3.88 ng/m3, 33.86 µg/m3, 5682.61 ng/m3, and 3.21 fiber/ml in the warm season, respectively. Source apportionment of emission of the air pollutants showed that PAHs are emitted from diesel vehicles and industrial activities. BTEX and asbestos are also released mainly by vehicles. The results of the inhalation-based risk assessment indicated that the carcinogenic risk of PAHs, BTEX, and asbestos exceeded the recommended limit by The US environmental protection agency (US EPA) and WHO (1 × 10-4). The risk of carcinogenesis of heavy metal of lead and chromium also exceeded the recommended limit. Thus, proper management strategies are required to control the concentration of these pollutants in Tehran's ambient air in order to maintain the health of Tehran's citizens.

Characteristics, distribution and sources of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in coastal sediments from the heavily industrialized area of Asalouyeh, Iran.

In this research, the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were investigated in the marine sediments of Asaluyeh harbor, in the Persian Gulf. The samples were taken from industrial, semi-industrial and urban regions. The mean concentration levels of total (Σ) 18 detected PCBs were 514.32, 144.67 and 31.6 pg/g dw for the industrial, semi-industrial and urban sampling stations, respectively. Based on a multivariate statistical analysis, it was found that high contamination levels of PCBs in sediments collected along the Persian Gulf were associated with releases from local industries. Total organic carbon (TOC) content was significantly and positively correlated with the concentrations of PCB congeners. World Health Organization toxic equivalents (TEQs) for PCBs ranged from 0.04 to 2.66 pg TEQ/g dry weight (dw) in the coastal sediments. The TEQ values in this study were higher than many reported worldwide in the literature for sediments. This suggests that there are high levels of contamination in the area due to industrial and other human activities.

Simulation of the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence using artificial neural networks (ANNs).

Climate change can increase the spread of infectious diseases and public health concerns. Malaria is one of the endemic infectious diseases of Iran, whose transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. The effect of climate change on malaria in the southeastern Iran from 2021 to 2050 was simulated by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Gamma test (GT) and general circulation models (GCMs) were used to determine the best delay time and to generate the future climate model under two distinct scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). To simulate the various impacts of climate change on malaria infection, ANNs were applied using daily collected data for 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). The future climate of the study area will be hotter by 2050. The simulation of malaria cases elucidated that there is an intense increasing trend in malaria cases under the RCP8.5 scenario until 2050, with the highest number of infections occurring in the warmer months. Rainfall and maximum temperature were identified as the most influential input variables. Optimum temperatures and increased rainfall provide a suitable environment for the transmission of parasites and cause an intense increase in the number of infection cases with a delay of approximately 90 days. ANNs were introduced as a practical tool for simulating the impact of climate change on the prevalence, geographic distribution, and biological activity of malaria and for estimating the future trend of the disease in order to adopt protective measures in endemic areas.

How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review.

Although the number of cholera infection decreased universally, climate change can potentially affect both incidence and prevalence rates of disease in endemic regions. There is considerable consistent evidence, explaining the associations between cholera and climatic variables. However, it is essentially required to compare and interpret these relationships globally. The aim of the present study was to carry out a systematic review in order to identify and appraise the literature concerning the relationship between nonanthropogenic climatic variabilities such as extreme weather- and ocean-related variables and cholera infection rates. The systematic literature review of studies was conducted by using determined search terms via four major electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. This search focused on published articles in English-language up to December 31, 2018. A total of 43 full-text studies that met our criteria have been identified and included in our analysis. The reviewed studies demonstrated that cholera incidence is highly attributed to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The association between cholera incidence and climatic variables has been investigated by a variety of data analysis methodologies, most commonly time series analysis, generalized linear model (GLM), regression analysis, and spatial/GIS. The results of this study assist the policy-makers who provide the efforts for planning and prevention actions in the face of changing global climatic variables.

Indirect estimation of child mortality using 2011 census data in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality rates are considered to be one of the key indicators of child health. AIMS: The main objective of this research was to calculate child mortality rates (CMRs) indirectly, using census data, and to investigate using spatial pattern analysis the presence of any clustering patterns among provincial regions. METHODS: The Trussell version of the Brass method and Coale-Demeny West model were used to estimate CMRs and life expectancy (LE) at birth. The analyses were performed using the QFive program of MORTPAK 4 software. For cluster analysis, local and global Moran's I indexes were measured. RESULTS: Infant mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate, 1-4 mortality rate and LE at birth were estimated as 21.9, 26, 4.1 (deaths per 1000 live births) and 72.1 years, respectively. Global Moran's I index was calculated as 0.09, 0.09, 0.08 and 0.12, respectively. CONCLUSION: Special attention must be paid in provinces with high clusters regarding the evaluation of public health programmes, and the cause of failure of these programmes in reduction of childhood mortality indices.

The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network.

Climate change has been described to raise outbreaks of water-born infectious diseases and increases public health concerns. This study aimed at finding out these impacts on cholera infections by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) from 2021 to 2050. Daily data for cholera infection cases in Qom city, which is located in the center of Iran, were analyzed from 1998 to 2016. To determine the best lag time and combination of inputs, Gamma Test (GT) was applied. General circulation model outputs were utilized to project future climate pattern under two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Statistical downscaling was done to produce high-resolution synthetic time series weather dataset. ANNs were applied for simulating the impact of climate change on cholera. The observed climate variables including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were tagged as predictors in ANNs. Cholera cases were considered as the target outcome variable. Projected future (2020-2050) climate in previous step was carried out to assess future cholera incidence. A seasonal trend in cholera infection was seen. Our results elucidated that the best lag time was 21 days. According to the results of downscaling tool, future climate in the study area by 2050 will be warmer and wetter. Simulation of cholera cases indicated that there is a clear trend of increasing cholera cases under the worst scenario (RCP8.5) by the year 2050 and the highest cholera cases observe in warmer months. The precipitation was recognized as the most effective input variable by sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant correlation between low precipitation and cholera infection. There is a strong evidence to show that cholera disease is correlated with environment variables, as low precipitation and high temperatures in warmer months could provide the swifter bacterial replication. These conditions in Iran, especially in the central parts, may raise the cholera infection rates. Furthermore, ANNs is an executive tool to simulate the impact of climate change on cholera to estimate the future trend of cholera incidence for adopting protective measures in endemic areas.

Levels and health risk assessments of particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) in indoor/outdoor air of waterpipe cafés in Tehran, Iran.

To determine the concentration of particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10), 36 samples were collected from indoor/outdoor air of hookah cafés (HS), cigarette cafés (CS), both hookah and cigarette (HCS), and no-smoking building (NS) in Tehran City from December 2017 to March 2018. The mean ± SD of PM10 concentration in the indoor air of the cafés in terms of HS, CS, HCS, and NS sites has been 702.35, 220.20, 1156.60, and 60.12 µg/m3, while for PM2.5, the values have been 271.92, 111.80, 619.10, and 22.25 µg/m3, respectively. It was also found that the PM concentration inside the cafés was higher during weekend session (with a higher number of active smokers), than during the weekday sessions. Moreover, the PM levels in the indoor air of the cafés were considerably higher than those of the outdoors (p < 0.05). Based on path analysis, the number of "active smokers" had the highest influence on production of PM inside the cafés, followed by the tobacco type. Finally, the mean excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) for PM2.5 in the indoor air of cafés was observed in the range of 0.64 × 10-5-14.98 × 10-5. Also, the mean of hazard quotient (HQ) for PM2.5 and PM10 was calculated in range of 0.82-18.4 and 0.16-3.28, respectively, which corresponds to an unacceptably high risk for human health. The PM levels in the indoor air of smoking cafés in Tehran are significantly high, such that it can cause serious risks for the health of both the customers and personnel. Thus, it is necessary that suitable controlling strategies be adopted for this public health threat.

Assessment of sediment quality based on acid-volatile sulfide and simultaneously extracted metals in heavily industrialized area of Asaluyeh, Persian Gulf: concentrations, spatial distributions, and sediment bioavailability/toxicity.

Sediment samples from the coastal area of Asaluyeh harbor were collected during autumn and spring 2015. The acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEMs) were measured to assess the sediment quality and potential ecological risks. The average concentrations (and relative standard deviation (RSD)) of AVS in the industrial sediments were 12.32 µmol/g (36.91) and 6.34 µmol/g (80.05) in autumn and spring, respectively, while in the urban area, these values were 0.44 µmol/g (123.50) and 0.31 µmol/g (160.0) in autumn and spring, respectively. The average concentrations of SEM (and RSD) in the industrial sediments were 15.02 µmol/g (14.38) and 12.34 µmol/g (20.65) in autumn and spring, respectively, while in the urban area, these values were 1.10 µmol/g (43.03) and 1.06 µmol/g (55.59) in autumn and spring, respectively. Zn was the predominant component (34.25-86.24 %) of SEM, while the corresponding value for Cd, much more toxic ingredient, was less than 1 %. Some of the coastal sediments in the harbor of Asaluyeh (20 and 47 % in autumn and spring, respectively) had expected adverse biological effects based on the suggested criterion by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), while most stations (80 and 53 % in autumn and spring, respectively) had uncertain adverse effects.

Burden of Malaria in Iran, 1990-2010: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health challenge in tropical and semi-tropical countries in terms of high morbidity and mortality. The present study aimed to report the burden of malaria in Iran, extracted from the global burden of disease 2010 study (GBD 2010) covering the period 1990 to 2010, to compare these findings with similar results, and to present some recommendations as potential solutions for gaining more accurate estimations regarding the burden of the disease in Iran. METHODS: Data covering the period from 1990 to 2010 were derived from the GBD 2010, which is published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The findings were used to estimate the years lived with disability (YLDs), the years of life lost (YLLs), the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the death rate of malaria in Iran. RESULTS: The GBD 2010 estimated that there was a sharp declining death trend with regard to DALYs and death rate, showing that 4,647.63 DALYs were due to malaria in Iranian people of all ages and both genders, and that DALYs per 100,000 individuals declined from 37.15 in 1990 to 5.87 in 2010. The total number of malaria deaths over the 20 years was 73.37. CONCLUSION: The findings revealed that the burden of malaria decreased remarkably between 1990 and 2010. The explanation for this decrease is the establishment of a malaria surveillance system in various parts of Iran, and utilization of proper intervention and the improvement of infrastructures, which play a role in disease transmission, especially in endemic areas.

Removal of phenol and bisphenol-A catalyzed by laccase in aqueous solution.

BACKGROUND: Elimination of hazardous phenolic compounds using laccases has gained attention during recent decades. The present study was designed to evaluate the ability of the purified laccase from Paraconiothyrium variabile (PvL) for elimination of phenol and the endocrine disrupting chemical bisphenol A. Effect of laccase activity, pH, and temperature on the enzymatic removal of the mentioned pollutants were also investigated. RESULTS: After 30 min treatment of the applied phenolic pollutants in the presence of PvL (5 U/mL), 80% of phenol and 59.7% of bisphenol A was removed. Increasing of laccase activity enhanced the removal percentage of both pollutants. The acidic pH of 5 was found to be the best pH for elimination of both phenol and bisphenol A. Increasing of reaction temperature up to 50°C enhanced the removal percentage of phenol and bisphenol A to 96.3% and 88.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: To sum up, the present work introduced the purified laccase of P. variabile as an efficient biocatalyst for removal of one of the most hazardous endocrine disruptor bisphenol A.