Association Between Physician Risk Assessment, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and Utilization of Medical Services.

Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) are a common risk adjustment tool that may support alignment of care management resources with the clinical needs of a population. The authors examined the association between HCC scores and physician-determined clinical risk (CR) scores, annual charges, and utilization of medical care. CR score was defined as the anticipated risk for "ED or a hospital admission" within the following year. For each of the top 50 high-risk patients identified by total HCC score, the patient's primary care physician (PCP) entered a CR score based on their judgement. A total of 128 PCPs entered scores on 6167 patients of all ages across 31 primary care practices in the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple correlation between HCC scores and physician CR scores was 44.0% (P < 0.001); only 18.5% of PCPs had a correlation >60%. There was a positive association between CR score and charges (slope 19.7K; P < 0.001) and between HCC score and charges (slope 25.7K; P < 0.001). Both HCC and CR scores were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with medical/surgical admissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and utilization of advanced imaging. Across a broad range of patients, HCC scores had a moderate-to-weak correlation with physician-determined CR scores for patients' risk of an ED visit or hospital admission. Both CR scores and HCCs scores were positively associated with charges and utilization. HCCs may assist in the allocation of health resources, but the relatively weak correlation with physician-determined CR scores warrants caution.

The US Air Force suicide prevention program: implications for public health policy.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the effectiveness of the US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program (AFSPP) in reducing suicide, and we measured the extent to which air force installations implemented the program. METHODS: We determined the AFSPP's impact on suicide rates in the air force by applying an intervention regression model to data from 1981 through 2008, providing 16 years of data before the program's 1997 launch and 11 years of data after launch. Also, we measured implementation of program components at 2 points in time: during a 2004 increase in suicide rates, and 2 years afterward. RESULTS: Suicide rates in the air force were significantly lower after the AFSPP was launched than before, except during 2004. We also determined that the program was being implemented less rigorously in 2004. CONCLUSIONS: The AFSPP effectively prevented suicides in the US Air Force. The long-term effectiveness of this program depends upon extensive implementation and effective monitoring of implementation. Suicides can be reduced through a multilayered, overlapping approach that encompasses key prevention domains and tracks implementation of program activities.

Variations in service use in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE): is more better?

BACKGROUND: To date, there has been little empirical evidence about the relationship between service use and risk-adjusted functional outcomes among the frail, chronically ill elderly population. The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) offers a unique model within which to investigate this relationship. We examine variation in the risk-adjusted utilization of acute, rehabilitative, and supportive services in PACE, and assess whether use of these services is associated with risk-adjusted functional outcomes. METHODS: The analytical sample included 42,252 records for 9853 individuals in 29 programs, over 3 years. Outcome was measured as change in functional status. Service use was assessed for hospital and nursing home admissions, day center attendance, therapy encounters, and personal home care. Mixed regression, generalized estimating equation (GEE) log-linear Poisson models and bootstrap procedures were used. RESULTS: We examined the marginal effect of the five services on functional status over time, having controlled for each program's risk-adjusted use of services and functional status of their enrollees. We observed a statistically significant association between hospital admissions and functional status. Sites using more hospital care had worse functional outcomes. We found no other significant relationship between functional change and service use. However, correlations between program-level measures showed that sites providing more day center care and more therapy had significantly fewer hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that programs with high hospital use may do well to re-examine and adjust the intensity of day center care. Greater focus on service provision in this setting may enhance care coordination and lead to reductions in hospitalizations, better outcomes, and cost savings.

Improved health care among children with special health care needs after enrollment into the State Children's Health Insurance Program.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of New York's State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) on health care for children with special health care needs (CSHCN). METHODS: Little is known about the impact of health insurance on CSHCN. Parents of a stratified random sample of new enrollees onto New York's SCHIP were interviewed by telephone at enrollment (n = 2644) and 1 year later (n = 2290, 87% response). At baseline, the cohort of CSHCN was defined by means of the standardized CSHCN screener instrument. The impact of SCHIP was assessed for CSHCN and for subgroups of CSHCN stratified by prior insurance (uninsured or insured) or type of chronic condition (physical or mental/behavioral). Access (having a usual source of care [USC], unmet medical needs); and quality (continuity of care at the USC, parent rating of quality of care or worry about child) were measured. Bivariate and multivariate analyses compared measures 1 year before SCHIP versus the year during SCHIP. RESULTS: A total of 398 (17%) of 2290 children had special health care needs identified at baseline. Enrollment onto SCHIP was generally associated with improved access: unmet needs for prescription medications declined 3-fold for all subgroups (eg, 36% to 9% among the previously uninsured) and unmet needs for specialty care declined >4-fold among CSHCN who were previously insured (48% to 10%) or had mental/behavioral conditions (32% to 2%; all P < .05). Enrollment was associated with improved continuity with the USC, parent-reported quality of care, and worry, irrespective of prior insurance or type of chronic condition (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Enrollment onto New York's SCHIP improved medical care for CSHCN.

Nursing home spending patterns in the 1990s: the role of nursing home competition and excess demand.

OBJECTIVE: To examine nursing home expenditures on clinical, hotel, and administrative activities during the 1990s and to determine the association between nursing home competition and excess demand on expenditures. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Secondary data sources for 1991, 1996, and 1999 for 500 free-standing nursing homes in New York State. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective statistical analysis of nursing homes' expenditures. The dependent variables were clinical, hotel, and administrative costs in each year. Independent variables included outputs (inpatient and outpatient), wages, ownership, New York City location, and measures of competition and excess demand. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHOD: Variables were constructed from annual financial reports submitted by the nursing homes, the Patient Review Instrument and Medicare enrollment data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clinical and administrative costs have increased over the decade, while hotel expenditures have declined. Increased competition was associated with higher clinical and administrative costs while excess demand was associated with lower clinical and hotel expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: Nursing home expenditures are sensitive to competition and excess demand conditions. Policies that influence competition in nursing home markets are therefore likely to have an impact on expenditures as well.

Transitions between SNF and home-based care in patients with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess patient characteristics and risk factors associated with care transitions between skilled nursing facility (SNF) and home care for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in an effort to improve outcomes and optimize patient care pathways. BACKGROUND: MS is a chronic neurologic illness of younger adults that is associated with physical disability, cognitive impairment and a high need for supportive services. METHODS: The study was based on the 2005 Nursing Home Minimum Data Set and the Outcome and Assessment Information Set data (n = 10,064). We performed multivariate evaluation of patient risk factors for skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission and disposition while controlling for potential patient self-selection and other characteristics that affect care utilization. RESULTS: MS patients with recent history of home care use were less likely to be admitted to an acute care hospital and had higher physical disability at SNF admission than SNF patients who did not use home care. Insurance type (Medicaid) and availability of informal caregivers were associated with the use of homecare services after a SNF stay, while patient demographic and clinical characteristics did not explain SNF disposition. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies should explore the association between the local availability and affordability of home-based services and physician attitude about community-based care management of disabled patients.

Is There Extra Cost of Institutional Care for MS Patients?

Throughout life, patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) require increasing levels of support, rehabilitative services, and eventual skilled nursing facility (SNF) care. There are concerns that access to SNF care for MS patients is limited because of perceived higher costs of their care. This study compares costs of caring for an MS patient versus those of a typical SNF patient. We merged SNF cost report data with the 2001-2006 Nursing Home Minimum Data Set (MDS) to calculate percentage of MS residents-days and facility case-mix indices (CMIs). We estimated the average facility daily cost using hybrid cost functions, adjusted for facility ownership, average facility wages, CMI-adjusted number of SNF days, and percentage of MS residents-days. We describe specific characteristics of SNF with high and low MS volumes and examine any sources of variation in cost. MS patients were no longer more costly than typical SNF patients. A greater proportion of MS patients had no significant effect on facility daily costs (P = 0.26). MS patients were more likely to receive care in government-owned facilities (OR = 1.904) located in the Western (OR = 2.133) and Midwestern (OR = 1.3) parts of the USA (P < 0.05). Cost of SNF care is not a likely explanation for the perceived access barriers that MS patients face.

Cost-effectiveness of the School-Based Asthma Therapy (SBAT) program.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Impoverished urban children suffer disproportionately from asthma and underuse preventive asthma medications. The objective of this study was to examine cost-effectiveness (CE) of the School-Based Asthma Therapy (SBAT) program compared with usual care (UC). METHODS: The analysis was based on the SBAT trial, including 525 children aged 3 to 10 years attending urban preschool or elementary school who were randomized to either UC or administration of 1 dose of preventive asthma medication at school by the school nurse each school day. The primary outcome was the mean number of symptom-free days (SFDs). The impact of the intervention on medical costs was estimated by using parent-reported child health services utilization data and average national reimbursement rates. We estimated the cost of running the program using wages for program staff. Productivity costs were estimated by using value of parent lost time due to child illness. CE of the SBAT program compared with UC was evaluated based on the incremental CE ratio. RESULTS: The health benefit of the intervention was equal to ∼158 SFD gained per each 30-day period (P < .05) per 100 children. The programmatic expenses summed to an extra $4822 per 100 children per month. The net saving due to the intervention (reduction in medical costs and parental productivity, and improvement in school attendance) was $3240, resulting in the incremental cost-savings difference of $1583 and CE of $10 per 1 extra SFD gained. CONCLUSIONS: The SBAT was effective and cost-effective in reducing symptoms in urban children with asthma compared with other existing programs.

Mood, anxiety, and substance-use disorders and suicide risk in a military population cohort.

There are meager prospective data from nonclinical samples on the link between anxiety disorders and suicide or the extent to which the association varies over time. We examined these issues in a cohort of 309,861 U.S. Air Force service members, with 227 suicides over follow-up. Mental disorder diagnoses including anxiety, mood, and substance-use disorders (SUD) were based on treatment encounters. Risk for suicide associated with anxiety disorders were lower compared with mood disorders and similar to SUD. Moreover, the associations between mood and anxiety disorders with suicide were greatest within a year of treatment presentation.

Impact of the State Children's Health Insurance Program on adolescents in New York.

OBJECTIVES: Adolescents face financial and nonfinancial barriers to health care. Little is known about the impact of health insurance on health care for adolescents. We assessed the impact of New York's State Children's Health Insurance Program on access, use, and quality of care for adolescents. METHODS: Adolescents and their parents from a stratified random sample of new enrollees in New York's State Children's Health Insurance Program were interviewed by telephone shortly after enrollment (baseline, n = 1118 adolescents and their parents) and 1 year later (follow-up, n = 970). Outcome measures included access (having a usual source of care and reported unmet health needs), use (preventive care and other types of visits), and quality (satisfaction with care, receipt of confidential care and preventive counseling). Outcomes were assessed at baseline (year before the State Children's Health Insurance Program) versus follow-up (year during the State Children's Health Insurance Program). RESULTS: The proportion of adolescents who reported having a usual source of care increased during State Children's Health Insurance Program compared with before (69.9% to 87.1%). The proportion with any unmet health care need (54.3% to 42.1%) or with unmet need for preventive care (53.8% to 40.6%) decreased, with elimination of racial disparities that existed before the State Children's Health Insurance Program. After enrollment in the State Children's Health Insurance Program, more adolescents reported having had a preventive care visit (65.9% to 74.2%); emergency department use did not change. No differences in satisfaction were noted, although significant increases were noted in both parent- and adolescent-reported rates of having received confidential care and preventive counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents who enrolled in New York's State Children's Health Insurance Program experienced improved access, use, and quality of care. These findings suggest that the provision of health insurance can help to improve health care for adolescents.

Disenrollment from an acute/long-term managed care program (PACE).

BACKGROUND: The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) is an acute/long-term managed care plan designed to care for the most frail and vulnerable Medicare beneficiaries. To our knowledge, this is a first study to examine patterns and predictors of disenrollment from PACE. OBJECTIVE: PACE, with its comprehensive delivery system, dual capitation, and a focus on the most vulnerable population, may be expected to achieve low rates of exit and little selective dissenrollment. This study examines whether these goals have been accomplished. RESEARCH DESIGN: The study includes 30 PACE programs and 14,657 individuals enrolled in them. Individual-level records, obtained from an administrative database, contain information on sociodemographics, caregiver support, health status and disability, medical history, service utilization, and disenrollment. Program-level variables also were included. Cox proportional hazard models, with time-varying and time-invariant covariates, were employed to predict time to disenrollment. RESULTS: Our findings show a low level of disenrollment. We find no increase in disenrollment risk by age, functional or cognitive impairment, Medicaid eligibility, or diagnoses. Certain characteristics (eg, nursing treatments) appear to reduce the disenrollment hazard, whereas others (eg, hospital admissions, private pay status) significantly increase it. The risk of disenrollment also increases with longer nursing home stays, until 80-90 days, whereupon it begins to decline. CONCLUSIONS: Both enrollee and program-level attributes predict program disenrollment. Programmatic and quality of care improvements may be needed to further minimize disenrollment, particularly in programs experiencing rates that are substantially greater than the average.

Improved asthma care after enrollment in the State Children's Health Insurance Program in New York.

BACKGROUND: Uninsured children with asthma are known to face barriers to asthma care, but little is known about the impact of health insurance on asthma care. OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the impact of New York's State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) on health care for children with asthma. DESIGN: Parents of a stratified random sample of new enrollees in New York's SCHIP were interviewed by telephone shortly after enrollment (baseline, n = 2644 [74% of eligible children]) and 1 year later (follow-up, n = 2310 [87%]). Asthma was defined by parent report using questions based on National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria. A comparison group (n = 401) who enrolled in SCHIP 1 year later was interviewed as a test for secular trends. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Access (having a usual source of care [USC], unmet health needs, problems receiving acute asthma care), asthma-related medical visits, quality (continuity of care at the USC, problems receiving chronic asthma care, use of antiinflammatory medications), and asthma outcomes (change in asthma care or severity) were the main outcome measures used. Bivariate and multivariate analyses compared measures at baseline (year before SCHIP) versus follow-up (year during SCHIP). RESULTS: Three-hundred eighty-three children (14%) had asthma at baseline, and 364 had asthma at follow-up (16%). No secular trends were detected between the baseline study group and the comparison group. After enrollment in SCHIP, improvements were noted in access: lacking a USC (decrease from 5% to 1%), unmet health needs (48% to 21%), and problems getting to the USC for asthma (13 to 4%). Children had fewer asthma-related attacks and medical visits after SCHIP (mean number of attacks: 9.5 to 3.8: mean number of asthma visits: 3.0 to 1.5; hospitalizations: 11% to 3%). Quality of asthma care improved for general measures (most/all visits to USC: 53% to 94%; mean rating of provider: 7.9 to 8.8 of 10) and asthma-specific measures (problems getting to the USC for asthma care when child was well: 13% to 1%). More than two thirds of the parents at follow-up reported that both quality of asthma care and asthma severity were "better or much better" than at baseline, generally because of insurance coverage or lower costs of medications and medical care. CONCLUSIONS: Enrollment in New York's SCHIP was associated with improvements in access to asthma care, quality of asthma care, and asthma-specific outcomes. These findings suggest that health insurance improves the health of children with asthma.

Health care services utilization at the end of life in a managed care program integrating acute and long-term care.

BACKGROUND: The period preceding death is often characterized by increased utilization of medical resources. There is an ongoing debate on the reasons for and the appropriateness of increased utilization at the end of life. OBJECTIVES: To study end-of-life practices in the PACE program and to assess the contribution of individual characteristics versus program site to the variation in use of services. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective analyses of utilization and health status data for the last 3 years before death. Multivariate regression techniques were used to estimate models predicting utilization of services and the percent of variation explained by individual characteristics and program sites in relation to time from death. SUBJECTS: The study comprised 2160 persons enrolled in 10 PACE sites who died before 2000. MEASURES: Monthly utilization by service type (eg, hospital, nursing home, primary care physicians), socioeconomic, and health status data. RESULTS: Utilization of health services increases as early as 7 months before death, with the largest increase in the last month. The increase is dominated by hospital use. During the last month before death variation across program sites explains twice as much of the variation in service utilization as does variation in individual characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The variation in end-of-life practices across PACE program sites, which are not attributed to differences in individual characteristics, raises two important questions: what are the causes for these variations; and are these variations desirable? Further research is required to answer both questions.

Variations in risk-adjusted outcomes in a managed acute/long-term care program for frail elderly individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and investigate the properties of three performance measures based on risk-adjusted health outcomes for a frail, elderly, community-dwelling population enrolled in a managed, acute, and long-term care program. DESIGN: Retrospective analyses of an administrative dataset containing individual level records with information about socioeconomics, health, functional and cognitive status, diagnoses, and treatments. We estimated risk-adjustment models predicting mortality, decline in functional status, and decline in self-assessed health. Each model includes individual risk factors and indicator variables for the program site in which the individual enrolled. Sites were ranked based on their performance in each risk-adjusted outcome, and the properties of these performance measures were investigated. SETTING: Twenty-eight sites of the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) that provide primary, acute, and long-term care services under capitated Medicare and Medicaid payment to a nursing home certifiable, and functionally and cognitively frail community-dwelling elderly population. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: Three thousand one hundred and thirty-eight individuals who were newly enrolled between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 1999. The average age of these enrollees was 78 years, 27% were male, 50% were diagnosed with dementia, and they had approximately 4 Activities of Daily Living limitations and 7.4 Instrumental Activities of Daily Living limitations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk-adjustment models, performance ranking for each site, and correlations between performance rankings. RESULTS: We present risk-adjustment models for mortality, change in functional status, and self-assessed health status. We found substantial variation across sites in performance, but no correlation between performance with respect to different outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The variations in outcomes suggest that sites can improve their performance by learning from the practices of those with the best outcomes. Further research is required to identify processes of care that lead to best outcomes.

Social support and risk-adjusted mortality in a frail older population.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that social support is an important predictor of mortality in a frail older population receiving formal long-term care services. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The analysis is based on 3138 individuals enrolled in 28 Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Information about the enrollees is obtained from dataPACE. Semiparametric Cox proportional hazards models are estimated to assess the importance of individual risk factors, program effect, and social support. RESULTS: The introduction of the social support variables into the mortality model containing the sociodemographic, health needs, and the PACE-site indicator variables results in a significant improvement of the overall model fit. Several social support variables are statistically significant predictors of mortality. Controlling for all participant and caregiver characteristics, participants whose caregiver is a spouse have a significantly lower risk of mortality (hazard ratio = 0.63) compared with those whose caregiver is not a spouse. Furthermore, caregivers' assistance with meals confers a significantly lower risk of morality (hazard ratio = 0.66) compared with no assistance with meals. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that certain aspects of informal caregiving are important factors enhancing survival in a population of frail, nursing home-certifiable individuals enrolled in a health program that already provides extensive services, including personal care, chores, and meals. Further research to better differentiate between the affective versus the instrumental dimensions of social support is needed to guide programs on how to balance the use of resources to provide both the necessary formal services and the support for the informal caregivers.