Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.

Predicted impact of banning nonessential, energy-dense food and beverages in schools in Mexico: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity is a growing concern worldwide. School-based interventions have been proposed as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity. In 2023, Mexico approved a reform to the General Education Law to strengthen the ban of sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools and surroundings. We aimed to predict the expected one-year change in total caloric intake and obesity prevalence by introducing the ban of NEDFBs sales in schools, among school-aged children and adolescents (6 to 17 years old) in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and then estimated total energy intake (TEI) per day. The TEI after the intervention was estimated under 4 scenarios: (1) using national data to inform the intervention effect; (2) varying law compliance; (3) using meta-analytic data to inform the intervention effect size on calories; and (4) using national data to inform the intervention effect by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). We used Hall's microsimulation model to estimate the potential impact on body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools. We found that children could reduce their daily energy intake by 33 kcal/day/person (uncertainty interval, UI, [25, 42] kcal/day/person), reducing on average 0.8 kg/person (UI [0.6, 1.0] kg/person) and 1.5 percentage points (pp) in obesity (UI [1.1, 1.9] pp) 1 year after implementing the law. We showed that compliance will be key to the success of this intervention: considering a 50% compliance the intervention effect could reduce 0.4 kg/person (UI [0.3, 0.5] kg/person). Our sensitivity analysis showed that the ban could reduce body weight by 1.3 kg/person (UI [0.8, 1.8] kg/person) and up to 5.4 kg/person (UI [3.4, 7.5] kg/person) in the best-case scenario. Study limitations include assuming that obesity and the contribution of NEDFBs consumed at school remain constant over time, assuming full compliance, and not considering the potential effect of banning NEDFBs in stores near schools. CONCLUSIONS: Even in the most conservative scenario, banning sales of NEDFBs in schools is expected to significantly reduce obesity, but achieving high compliance will be key to its success. WHY WAS THIS STUDY DONE?: - School-based interventions have been recognized as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity-related diseases.- In December 2023, the Chamber of Representatives of Mexico approved an amendment that strengthens and updates the General Education Law (Article 75) and nutritional guidelines to ban the sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools. WHAT DID THE RESEARCHERS DO AND FIND?: - We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and total energy intake (TEI) per day.- We used microsimulation modeling to predict body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools.- Our modeling study suggests that an important impact on obesity prevalence can be expected if the law is implemented and enforced as intended. WHAT DO THESE FINDINGS MEAN?: - If successful, this law could serve as an example beyond Mexico on how to achieve changes in body weight through school food regulation.- An important limitation of our main scenario is that we assumed full compliance of schools with the law, yet lower compliance will reduce its impact. We also did not consider historical trends on obesity or NEDFBs consumed in schools during our 1 year simulation, and we considered only the ban impact inside schools, excluding effects near and outside schools.

Association between consumption of nonessential energy-dense food and body mass index among Mexican school-aged children: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity prevalence in Mexican children has increased rapidly and is among the highest in the world. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal association between nonessential energy-dense food (NEDF) consumption and body mass index (BMI) in school-aged children 5 to 11 years, using a cohort study with 6 years of follow-up. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We studied the offspring of women in the Prenatal omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, child growth, and development (POSGRAD) cohort study. NEDF was classified into four main groups: chips and popcorn, sweet bakery products, non-cereal based sweets, and ready-to-eat cereals. We fitted fixed effects models to assess the association between change in NEDF consumption and changes in BMI. RESULTS: Between 5 and 11 years, children increased their consumption of NEDF by 225 kJ/day (53.9 kcal/day). In fully adjusted models, we found that change in total NEDF was not associated with change in children's BMI (0.033 kg/m2, [p = 0.246]). However, BMI increased 0.078 kg/m2 for every 418.6 kJ/day (100 kcal/day) of sweet bakery products (p = 0.035) in fully adjusted models. For chips and popcorn, BMI increased 0.208 kg/m2 (p = 0.035), yet, the association was attenuated after adjustment (p = 0.303). CONCLUSIONS: Changes in total NEDF consumption were not associated with changes in BMI in children. However, increases in the consumption of sweet bakery products were associated with BMI gain. NEDF are widely recognized as providing poor nutrition yet, their impact in Mexican children BMI seems to be heterogeneous.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Fatal Overdose Rate Trends in Mexican Cities: 2005-2021.

Objectives. To describe national and city-level fatal drug overdose trends between 2005 and 2021 in Mexico. Methods. We calculated fatal overdose rates at the city level in 3-year periods from 2005 to 2021 and annually at the national level for people aged 15 to 64 years in Mexico. We calculated rate differences and rate ratios for each city between periods. Results. The national fatal overdose rate was 0.53 overdose deaths per 100 000 population and was almost twice as high in urban than in nonurban areas. The national fatal overdose rate was stable over the period 2005 to 2014 and increased monotonically to a peak in 2021. Fatal overdose rates varied across cities. Cities with the 8 highest fatal overdose rates in the period were all in states along the US-Mexico border. Conclusions. Fatal overdoses have doubled over the past 15 years in Mexico. Overdose rates are particularly high and increasing in cities close to the US-Mexico border. Public Health Implications. There is a need for enhanced overdose surveillance data and coordinated harm reduction strategies, particularly in the northern border region of Mexico. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(7):705-713. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307650).

Research Translation to Promote Urban Health in Latin America: The SALURBAL Experience.

In highly urbanized and unequal Latin America, urban health and health equity research are essential to effective policymaking. To ensure the application of relevant and context-specific evidence to efforts to reduce urban health inequities, urban health research in Latin America must incorporate strategic research translation efforts. Beginning in 2017, the Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) project implemented policy-relevant research and engaged policymakers and the public to support the translation of research findings. Over 6 years, more than 200 researchers across eight countries contributed to SALURBAL's interdisciplinary network. This network allowed SALURBAL to adapt research and engagement activities to local contexts and priorities, thereby maximizing the policy relevance of research findings and their application to promote policy action, inform urban interventions, and drive societal change. SALURBAL achieved significant visibility and credibility among academic and nonacademic urban health stakeholders, resulting in the development of evidence and tools to support urban policymakers, planners, and policy development processes across the region. These efforts and their outcomes reveal important lessons regarding maintaining flexibility and accounting for local context in research, ensuring that resources are dedicated to policy engagement and dissemination activities, and recognizing that assessing policy impact requires a nuanced understanding of complex policymaking processes. These reflections are relevant for promoting urban health and health equity research translation across the global south and worldwide. This paper presents SALURBAL's strategy for dissemination and policy translation, highlights innovative initiatives and their outcomes, discusses lessons learned, and shares recommendations for future efforts to promote effective translation of research findings.

Trends in the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from food and beverage purchases in Mexico: 1989-2020.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the trends in dietary GHGE considering the social patterning is critical for understanding the role that food systems have played and will play in global emissions in countries of the global south. Our aim is to describe dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) trends (overall and by food group) using data from household food purchase surveys from 1989 to 2020 in Mexico, overall and by education levels and urbanicity. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from 16 rounds of Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey, a nationally representative survey. The sample size ranged from 11,051 in 1989 to 88,398 in 2020. We estimated the mean total GHGE per adult-equivalent per day (kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d) for every survey year. Then, we estimated the relative GHGE contribution by food group for each household. These same analyses were conducted stratifying by education and urbanicity. RESULTS: The mean total GHGE increased from 3.70 (95%CI: 3.57, 3.82) to 4.90 (95% CI 4.62, 5.18) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d between 1989 and 2014 and stayed stable between 4.63 (95% CI: 4.53, 4.72) and 4.89 (95% CI: 4.81, 4.96) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d from 2016 onwards. In 1989, beef (19.89%, 95% CI: 19.18, 20.59), dairy (16.87%, 95% CI: 16.30, 17.42)), corn (9.61%, 95% CI: 9.00, 10.22), legumes (7.03%, 95% CI: 6.59, 7.46), and beverages (6.99%, 95% CI: 6.66, 7.32) had the highest relative contribution to food GHGE; by 2020, beef was the top contributor (17.68%, 95%CI: 17.46, 17.89) followed by fast food (14.17%, 95% CI: 13.90, 14.43), dairy (11.21%, 95%CI: 11.06, 11.36), beverages (10.09%, 95%CI: 9.94, 10.23), and chicken (10.04%, 95%CI: 9.90, 10.17). Households with higher education levels and those in more urbanized areas contributed more to dietary GHGE across the full period. However, households with lower education levels and those in rural areas had the highest increase in these emissions from 1989 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide insights into the food groups in which the 2023 Mexican Dietary Guidelines may require to focus on improving human and planetary health.

Binge drinking associated with mean temperature: a cross-sectional study among Mexican adults living in cities.

BACKGROUND: The association between environmental temperature and alcohol consumption has not been widely explored despite the potential that increasing temperatures could promote the consumption of alcoholic beverages and the alcohol-related burden of disease. We aimed to explore the association between temperature and binge drinking in Mexican adults from urban cities, overall, and by alcoholic beverage type. METHODS: Data on 10,552 adults ≥ 18 years was obtained from the 2016 National Survey on Drug, Alcohol, and Tobacco Consumption. The mean annual temperature at the municipality was obtained from the Mexican National Weather Service using monthly temperatures from 2015 to 2016. We analyzed binge drinking for all alcoholic beverages in the last year and by type of alcohol as beer, liquor, wine, and coolers. Associations between mean temperature over the past year and binge drinking over the past year among current drinkers were estimated using multilevel Poisson models with robust standard errors adjusted for age, sex, education level, marital status, and household socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect by region. RESULTS: We observed a non-significant increase in the prevalence of binge drinking for every difference of 1 °C between municipalities of the same region. By alcohol type, a 1 °C increase in mean annual temperature across municipalities of the same region increased the prevalence of beer binge drinking in the past year by 0.9% (PR = 1.009, 95%CI 1.005, 1.013) among beer consumers and the prevalence of coolers' binge drinking by 3.0% (PR = 1.030, 95%CI 1.003, 1.057) in coolers consumers. We observed non-significant results for liquor binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95%CI 0.994, 1.102) and wine binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95% 0.944, 1.161). CONCLUSION: People living in municipalities with higher temperatures reported a higher beer binge drinking in Mexican cities. This could account for 196,000 cases of beer binge drinking in 2016. The context of each country needs to be considered when generalizing these findings, and they need to be further explored with longitudinal data as there might be implications for climate change. If our findings are confirmed given the forecasted rising temperatures, we could expect an increase in binge drinking and therefore, in the alcohol burden of disease.

Impact of an enhanced sobriety checkpoints programme and publicity campaign on motor vehicle collisions, injuries and deaths in Leon, MX: a synthetic control study.

OBJECTIVE: Drunk driving is a major cause of road traffic injuries and deaths in Latin America. We evaluated the impact of a drunk driving intervention in Leon, Mexico on road traffic safety. METHODS: The intervention included increased drunk driving penalties, enhanced sobriety checkpoints and a young adult-focused mass media campaign, beginning 19 December 2018. We created a synthetic control Leon from 12 Mexican municipalities from a pool of 87 based on similarity to Leon using key predictors from 2015 to 2019. We assessed the effect of the intervention on road traffic collisions overall and collisions with injuries, deaths and involving alcohol, using data from police, insurance claims and vital registration. RESULTS: As compared with the synthetic control, Leon experienced significant postintervention lower police-reported total collision rate (17%) and injury collisions (33%). Alcohol-involved collisions were 38% lower than the synthetic control. Fatal collisions reported by police were 28% lower while vital registration road traffic deaths were 12% lower, though these declines were not statistically significant. We found no impact on insurance collision claims. There was heterogeneity in these changes over the evaluation year, with stronger initial effects and weaker effects by the end of the year. CONCLUSIONS: Drunk driving policies in Leon led to fewer traffic collisions and injuries during the first year of implementation, with a weakening of this effect over time, similar to interventions in high-income settings and other Latin American countries. Supporting the expansion of similar policies to other cities in the region could improve road safety.

Agreement between a web collaborative dataset and an administrative dataset to assess the retail food environment in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Latin American countries are often limited in the availability of food outlet data. There is a need to use online search engines that allow the identification of food outlets and assess their agreement with field observations. We aimed to assess the agreement in the density of food outlets provided by a web collaborative data (Google) against the density obtained from an administrative registry. We also determined whether the agreement differed by type of food outlet and by area-level socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we analyzed 1,693 census tracts from the municipalities of Hermosillo, Leon, Oaxaca de Juarez, and Tlalpan. The Google service was used to develop a tool for the automatic acquisition of food outlet data. To assess agreement, we compared food outlet densities obtained with Google against those registered in the National Statistical Directory of Economic Units (DENUE). Continuous densities were assessed using Bland-Altman plots and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), while agreement across tertiles of density was estimated using weighted kappa. RESULTS: The CCC indicated a strong correlation between Google and DENUE in the overall sample (0.75); by food outlet, most of the correlations were from negligible (0.08) to moderate (0.58). The CCC showed a weaker correlation as deprivation increased. Weighted kappa indicated substantial agreement between Google and DENUE across all census tracts (0.64). By type of food outlet, the weighted kappa showed substantial agreement for restaurants (0.69) and specialty food stores (0.68); the agreement was moderate for convenience stores/small food retail stores (0.49) and fair for candy/ice cream stores (0.30). Weighted kappa indicated substantial agreement in low-deprivation areas (0.63); in very high-deprivation areas, the agreement was moderate (0.42). CONCLUSIONS: Google could be useful in assessing fixed food outlet densities as a categorical indicator, especially for some establishments, like specialty food stores and restaurants. The data could also be informative of the availability of fixed food outlets, particularly in less deprived areas.

Prevalence of Post-COVID conditions among Mexican COVID-19 survivors: a nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited population-representative data that describe the potential burden of Post-COVID conditions (PCC) in Mexico. We estimated the prevalence of PCC overall and by sociodemographic characteristics among a representative sample of adults previously diagnosed with COVID-19 in Mexico. We additionally, characterized the PCC symptoms, and estimated the association between diagnosed type-2 diabetes and hypertension with PCC. METHODS: We used data from the 2021 National Health and Nutrition Survey in Mexico, a nationally and regionally representative survey, from August 1st to October 31st, 2021. Using the WHO definition, we estimated the prevalence of PCC by sociodemographics and prevalence of PCC symptoms. We fit multivariable log-binomial regression models to estimate the associations. RESULTS: The prevalence of PCC was 37.0%. The most common persistent symptoms were fatigue (56.8%), myalgia or arthralgia (47.5%), respiratory distress and dyspnea (42.7%), headache (34.0%), and cough (25.7%). The prevalence was higher in older people, women, and individuals with low socioeconomic status. There was no significant association between hypertension and PCC or diabetes and PCC prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: About one-third of the adult Mexican population who had COVID-19 in 2021 had Post-COVID conditions. Our population-based estimates can help assess potential priorities for PCC-related health services, which is critical in light of our weak health system and limited funding.

Longitudinal association between density of retail food stores and body mass index in Mexican school children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is rapidly increasing in Mexican children and adolescents, while food environments are rapidly changing. We evaluated the association between changes in retail food stores and change in body mass index (BMI) in Mexican children and adolescents. METHODS: Data on 7507 participants aged 5-19 years old came from the Mexican Family Life Survey 2002-2012. Density of food stores at the municipal-level (number of food stores/area in km2) came from the Economic Censuses of 1999, 2004 and 2009. We categorized food stores as small food retail (small neighborhood stores, tiendas de abarrotes in Mexico), specialty foods, fruit/vegetables, convenience foods, and supermarkets. Associations between change in food stores and change in BMI were estimated using five longitudinal linear fixed-effects regression models (one per type of food store) adjusted for age, parental education, municipal-level socioeconomic deprivation and population density. Density of each food store type was operationalized as quartiles. Analyses were stratified by urbanization. RESULTS: There was an inverse dose-response association between increases in fruit/vegetable store density and BMI (ß = -0.455 kg/m2, ß = -0.733 kg/m2, and ß = -0.838 kg/m2 in the second, third, and fourth quartile). In non-urban areas, children living in municipalities with the highest density of small food retail stores experienced a reduction in BMI (ß = -0.840 kg/m2). In urban areas, there was an inverse association between specialty food stores with BMI (ß = -0.789 kg/m2 in third quartile, and ß = -1.204 kg/m2 in fourth quartile). We observed dynamic associations with age; results suggested stronger associations in adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of fruit/vegetable stores may influence a reduction in children and adolescents BMI. These results indicate that policy approaches could be tailored by type of food store - with some consideration for level of urbanization and children's age.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and vaccine coverage from August to November 2021: A nationally representative survey in Mexico.

We aimed to estimate self-reported vaccine coverage and SARS-CoV-2 anti-N and anti-S seroprevalence in Mexico overall and for five vaccine types. We used a nationally representative survey with 7236 dried blood spot samples for adults 18 years and older collected from August to November 2021. Anti-N and anti-S seroprevalence were estimated adjusting for the sensitivity and specificity of the immunoassay test. A multivariate Poisson regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence by vaccine type and by age group adjusting for confounders and test performance. Vaccination coverage was 74%, being higher in women compared to men, high socioeconomic status (SES) compared to low and middle SES, graduates compared to people with high school, and formal workers compared to other employment statuses. Anti-N seroprevalence was 59.2%, compared to 84.1% anti-S seroprevalence. Anti-S seroprevalence was higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated participants. All vaccines were associated with more than 70% anti-S seroprevalence, with the lowest being observed for CoronaVac and Ad5-nCoV. Fully vaccinated participants over 60 years presented a lower seroprevalence (77.6%) compared to younger adults (91.1%), with larger differences for ChAdOx1 and CoronaVac vaccines. Between August and November 2021, three out of four Mexican adults had been vaccinated. Vaccination was associated with a higher positivity to anti-S antibodies. While antibodies do not reflect immunity, our results suggest that booster doses should be offered to people over 60 years of age and to adults who received Ad5-nCoV or CoronaVac as primary vaccination schemes.

How Could Taxes on Sugary Drinks and Foods Help Reduce the Burden Of Type 2 Diabetes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Taxes on sugary drinks and foods have emerged as a key strategy to counteract the alarming levels of diabetes worldwide. Added sugar consumption from industrialized foods and beverages has been strongly linked to type 2 diabetes. This review provides a synthesis of evidence on how taxes on sugary products can influence the onset of type 2 diabetes, describing the importance of the different mechanisms through which the consumption of these products is reduced, leading to changes in weight and potentially a decrease in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. RECENT FINDINGS: Observational studies have shown significant reductions in purchases, energy intake, and body weight after the implementation of taxes on sugary drinks or foods. Simulation studies based on the association between energy intake and type 2 diabetes estimated the potential long-term health and economic effects, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, suggesting that the implementation of sugary food and beverage taxes may have a meaningful impact on reducing type 2 diabetes and complications. Public health response to diabetes requires multi-faceted approaches from health and non-health actors to drive healthier societies. Population-wide strategies, such as added sugar taxes, highlight the potential benefits of financial incentives to address behaviors and protective factors to significantly change an individual's health trajectory and reduce the onset of type 2 diabetes worldwide, both in terms of economy and public health.

Prevalence and development of a risk score for oral human papillomavirus infection in men who have sex with men in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for oral human papillomavirus (HPV infection). There are no specific screening guidelines to facilitate the identification of people at risk for oral HPV infection. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of oral high-risk HPV and create a risk score to identify MSM at higher risk for prevalent oral HPV. METHODS: We collected baseline data from a clinical trial from a subsample of 500 MSM attending sexually transmitted disease treatment clinics; they provided an oral gargle sample for high-risk HPV detection. We calculated oral high-risk HPV prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), used a logistic regression model to identify factors associated with high-risk HPV infection, and created a risk score. RESULTS: The prevalence of any oral high-risk HPV among MSM was 11.1% (95% CI: 8.6-14.2), with a higher prevalence observed among men living with HIV (14.8%). Factors independently associated with oral high-risk HPV were age ≥40 years (OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.28-5.73 compared to <40 years), being HIV-positive with CD4 count 200-499 (OR = 2.76, 95% CI: 1.34-5.65 compared to HIV-negative), and recent recreational use of vasodilators (poppers/sildenafil) (OR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.02-2.97). The risk score had good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.63-0.77). CONCLUSIONS: MSM have specific predictors for prevalent oral high-risk HPV, and a risk score could be used by clinicians to target men with vaccine recommendations and counseling, and identify those who could benefit from primary interventions given the available resources, or for referral to dental services for follow-up when available.

Low-intensity daily smoking and mortality risk among Mexican women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between low-intensity smoking (10 or less cigarettes per day) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk among women who smoke and by age at cessation among women who previously smoked. METHODS: In this study, 104 717 female participants of the Mexican Teachers' Cohort Study were categorised according to self-reported smoking status at baseline (2006/2008) and were followed for mortality through 2019. We estimated HRs and 95% CIs for all-cause and cause-specific mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models with age as the underlying time metric. RESULTS: Smoking as few as one to two cigarettes per day was associated with higher mortality risk for all causes (HR: 1.36; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.67) and all cancers (HR: 1.46; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.02), compared with never smoking. Similarly, slightly higher HRs were observed among participants smoking ≥3 cigarettes per day (all causes HR: 1.43; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.70; all cancers HR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.97; cardiovascular disease HR: 1.58; 95% CI 1.09 to 2.28). CONCLUSIONS: In this large study of Mexican women, low-intensity smoking was associated with higher mortality risk for all causes and all cancers. Interventions are needed to promote cessation among women who smoke at low-intensity in Mexico, regardless of how few cigarettes they smoke per day.

Food and beverage purchases at formal and informal outlets in Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To examine food and beverage purchasing patterns across formal and informal outlets among Mexican households' and explore differences by urbanicity and income. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of households. We calculated the proportion of total food and beverage expenditure in each household by food outlet type overall and by urbanicity and income. We defined informal outlets as those which are not registered or regulated by tax and fiscal laws. Since some of the outlets within community food environments do not fall in clear categories, we defined a continuum from formal to informal outlets, adding mixed outlets as a category. SETTING: Mexico. PARTICIPANTS: Mexican households (n 74 203) from the 2018 National Income and Expenditure Survey. RESULTS: Of the total food and beverage purchases, outlets within the formal food sector (i.e. supermarkets and convenience stores) accounted for 15 % of the purchases, 13 % of purchases occurred in outlets within the informal food sector (i.e. street markets, street vendors and acquaintances) and 70 % in fiscally mixed outlets (i.e. small neighbourhood stores, specialty stores and public markets). Across levels of urbanicity and income, most food and beverage purchases occurred in mixed outlets. Also, purchases in informal and mixed outlets decreased as levels of urbanicity and income increased. In contrast to informal outlets, purchases in formal outlets were most likely from richer households and living in larger sized cities. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding where Mexican households shop for food is relevant to create tailored interventions according to food outlet type, accounting for regulatory and governance structures.

Evaluation of road safety policies and their enforcement in Mexico City, 2015-2019: an interrupted time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Mexico City approved new road safety policies in 2015, which included lower speed limits and higher fines for traffic offences. In 2019, economic fines were replaced by a point penalty system among other changes. This study evaluates these policies on road traffic collisions, injuries and deaths. METHODS: Collisions data came from insurance collision claims (January 2015 to December 2019) and road traffic deaths from vital registrations (January 2013 to December 2019). We conducted an interrupted time series analysis for each outcome using negative binomial regression models with an offset of insured vehicles (collisions) or total population (deaths). Then, we classified the 16 municipalities in the city into enforcement and no-enforcement groups based on presence or absence of automated traffic enforcement devices and conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: The 2015 road safety policies had no effect on total collisions and collisions resulting in injury but were associated with a 0.2% (95% CI -0.3 to 0.0) decline in the mortality trend. The 2019 policies had no effect on total collisions but were associated with a 1.5% increase in the trend of collisions resulting in injuries and with a 2.7% (95% CI 1.0 to 4.5) increase in the mortality trend. Postpolicy trends in enforcement versus no-enforcement municipalities were not significantly different. CONCLUSION: Policies that included high economic penalties for speeding and dangerous behaviours were effective in decreasing traffic mortality while removing economic penalties and replacing them with a point penalty system were associated with an increase in collisions, resulting in injury and mortality.

Hepatitis C mortality trends in Mexico from 2001 to 2017.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyze the trends of total and sex-stratified mortality from hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to estimate the proportion of non-alcoholic liver disease deaths in Mexico attributable to HCV from 2001-2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the mortality multiple-cause dataset, we selected the codes for acute HCV and chronic HCV to analyze trends from 2001 to 2017. We then estimated the proportion of HCV-related deaths out of non-alcoholic chronic liver disease deaths, by including in the denominator: other acute and chronic viral hepatitis, malignant neoplasm of the liver, liver failure, chronic hepatitis, fibrosis, and cirrhosis of the liver, and other inflammatory diseases of the liver. Average percent change (APC) for trends, overall and by sex, were estimated using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The trend in crude mortality rate significantly increased from 2001-2005 (APC 18.4%; 95%CI=12.5, 24.5; p value<0.001), and then significantly decreased from 2013-2017 (APC -6.5%; 95%CI=-10.1, -2.9; p value<0.001). Stratified by sex women experienced a more rapid decline in the 2014-2017 period than men. CONCLUSIONS: HCV mortality seems to have started to decrease, but much remains to be done in terms of prevention, diagnosis, and timely access to treatment.

Association of service facilities and amenities with adolescent birth rates in Mexican cities.

BACKGROUND: The association of the built environment and the structural availability of services/amenities with adolescent birth rates (ABR) has been overlooked in Latin America. We investigated the association of the availability, and changes in the availability, of services/amenities with ABR in 92 Mexican cities. METHODS: We estimated ABR using data on live birth registration linked to municipality of residence at the time of birth from 2008-2017. The number of services/amenities were obtained from the National Statistical Directory of Economic Units in 2010, 2015, and 2020 and grouped as follows: education, health care, pharmacies, recreation, and on- and off-premises alcohol outlets. Data were linearly interpolated to obtain yearly estimates. We estimated densities per square km by municipality. We fitted negative binomial hybrid models, including a random intercept for municipality and city, and adjusted for other social environment variables. RESULTS: After adjustment a 1-unit increase in the density of recreation facilities, pharmacies, and off-premises alcohol outlets within municipalities was associated with a 5%, 4% and 12% decrease in ABR, respectively. Municipalities with higher density of education, recreational and health care facilities had a lower ABR; in contrast, municipalities with a higher density of on-premises alcohol experienced a higher ABR. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of economic drivers and the need to invest in infrastructure, such as pharmacies, medical facilities, schools, and recreation areas and limit the availability of alcohol outlets to increase the impact of current adolescent pregnancy prevention programs.

Warning labels on alcoholic beverage containers: a pilot randomized experiment among young adults in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the potential impacts of visible and up-to-date health warning labels on alcoholic beverage containers on a range of outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted an experimental study to test the potential impacts of visible health warning labels (on the principal panel of the package) on thinking about health risks, product attractiveness, visual avoidance, and intention to change alcohol use among students in Mexico aged 18-30 years. METHODS: A double-blind, parallel-group, online randomized trial was conducted from November 2021 to January 2022 in 11 states in Mexico. In the control group, participants were presented with the image of a conventional beer can with a fictional design and brand. In the intervention groups, the participants observed pictograms with a red font and white backgrounds (health warning label in red-HWL red) or with a black font and yellow backgrounds (health warning label in yellow-HWL yellow), located at the top, covering around one-third of the beer can. We used Poisson regression models -unadjusted and adjusted for covariates- to assess differences in the outcomes across study groups. RESULTS: Using intention-to-treat analysis (n = 610), we found more participants in groups HWL red and HWL yellow thought about the health risks from drinking beer compared to the control group [Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.43, CI95%:1.05,1.93 for HWL red; PR = 1.25, CI95%: 0.91, 1.71 for HWL yellow]. A lower percentage of young adults in the interventions vs control group considered the product attractive (PR 0.74, 95%CI 0.51, 1.06 for HWL red; PR 0.56, 95%CI 0.38, 0.83 for HWL yellow). Although not statistically significant, a lower percentage of participants in the intervention groups considered buying or consuming the product than the control group. Results were similar when models were adjusted for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Visible health warning labels could lead individuals to think about the health risks of alcohol, reducing the attractiveness of the product and decreasing the intention to purchase and consume alcohol. Further studies will be required to determine which pictograms or images and legends are most contextually relevant for the country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol of this study was retrospectively registered on 03/01/2023: ISRCTN10494244.