Multimodal Biomarkers That Predict the Presence of Gleason Pattern 4: Potential Impact for Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: Latent grade group ≥2 prostate cancer can impact the performance of active surveillance protocols. To date, molecular biomarkers for active surveillance have relied solely on RNA or protein. We trained and independently validated multimodal (mRNA abundance, DNA methylation, and/or DNA copy number) biomarkers that more accurately separate grade group 1 from grade group ≥2 cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients were assigned to training (n=333) and validation (n=202) cohorts. We profiled the abundance of 342 mRNAs, 100 DNA copy number alteration loci, and 14 hypermethylation sites at 2 locations per tumor. Using the training cohort with cross-validation, we evaluated methods for training classifiers of pathological grade group ≥2 in centrally reviewed radical prostatectomies. We trained 2 distinct classifiers, PRONTO-e and PRONTO-m, and validated them in an independent radical prostatectomy cohort. RESULTS: PRONTO-e comprises 353 mRNA and copy number alteration features. PRONTO-m includes 94 clinical, mRNAs, copy number alterations, and methylation features at 14 and 12 loci, respectively. In independent validation, PRONTO-e and PRONTO-m predicted grade group ≥2 with respective true-positive rates of 0.81 and 0.76, and false-positive rates of 0.43 and 0.26. Both classifiers were resistant to sampling error and identified more upgrading cases than a well-validated presurgical risk calculator, CAPRA (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Two grade group classifiers with superior accuracy were developed by incorporating RNA and DNA features and validated in an independent cohort. Upon further validation in biopsy samples, classifiers with these performance characteristics could refine selection of men for active surveillance, extending their treatment-free survival and intervals between surveillance.

Breast Cancer Index and prediction of benefit from extended endocrine therapy in breast cancer patients treated in the Adjuvant Tamoxifen-To Offer More? (aTTom) trial.

BACKGROUND: Extending the duration of adjuvant endocrine therapy reduces the risk of recurrence in a subset of women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. Validated predictive biomarkers of endocrine response could significantly improve patient selection for extended therapy. Breast cancer index (BCI) [HOXB13/IL17BR ratio (H/I)] was evaluated for its ability to predict benefit from extended endocrine therapy in patients previously randomized in the Adjuvant Tamoxifen-To Offer More? (aTTom) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trans-aTTom is a multi-institutional, prospective-retrospective study in patients with available formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary tumor blocks. BCI testing and central determination of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status by immunohistochemistry were carried out blinded to clinical outcome. Survival endpoints were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression with recurrence-free interval (RFI) as the primary endpoint. Interaction between extended endocrine therapy and BCI (H/I) was assessed using the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Of 583 HR+, N+ patients analyzed, 49% classified as BCI (H/I)-High derived a significant benefit from 10 versus 5 years of tamoxifen treatment [hazard ratio (HR): 0.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15-0.86; 10.2% absolute risk reduction based on RFI, P = 0.027]. BCI (H/I)-low patients showed no significant benefit from extended endocrine therapy (HR: 1.07; 95% CI 0.69-1.65; -0.2% absolute risk reduction; P = 0.768). Continuous BCI (H/I) levels predicted the magnitude of benefit from extended tamoxifen, whereas centralized ER and PR did not. Interaction between extended tamoxifen treatment and BCI (H/I) was statistically significant (P = 0.012), adjusting for clinicopathological factors. CONCLUSION: BCI by high H/I expression was predictive of endocrine response and identified a subset of HR+, N+ patients with significant benefit from 10 versus 5 years of tamoxifen therapy. These data provide further validation, consistent with previous MA.17 data, establishing level 1B evidence for BCI as a predictive biomarker of benefit from extended endocrine therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17222211; NCT00003678.

Characterization of male breast cancer: results of the EORTC 10085/TBCRC/BIG/NABCG International Male Breast Cancer Program.

Background: Male breast cancer (BC) is rare, managed by extrapolation from female BC. The International Male BC Program aims to better characterize and manage this disease. We report the results of part I, a retrospective joint analysis of cases diagnosed during a 20-year period. Methods: Patients with follow-up and tumor samples, treated between 1990 and 2010, in 93 centers/9 countries. Samples were centrally analyzed in three laboratories (the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and the United States). Results: Of 1822 patients enrolled, 1483 were analyzed; 63.5% were diagnosed between 2001 and 2010, 57 (5.1%) had metastatic disease (M1). Median age at diagnosis: 68.4 years. Of 1054 M0 cases, 56.2% were node-negative (N0) and 48.5% had T1 tumors; 4% had breast conserving surgery (BCS), 18% sentinel lymph-node biopsy; half received adjuvant radiotherapy; 29.8% (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy and 76.8% adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET), mostly tamoxifen (88.4%). Per central pathology, for M0 tumors: 84.8% ductal invasive carcinomas, 51.5% grade 2; 99.3% estrogen receptor (ER)-positive; 81.9% progesterone receptor (PR)-positive; 96.9% androgen receptor (AR)-positive [ER, PR or AR Allred score ≥3]; 61.1% Ki67 expression low (<14% positive cells); using immunohistochemistry (IHC) surrogates, 41.9% were Luminal-A-like, 48.6% Luminal-B-like/HER-2-negative, 8.7% HER-2-positive, 0.3% triple negative. Median follow-up: 8.2 years (0.0-23.8) for all, 7.2 years (0.0-23.2), for M0, 2.6 years (0.0-12.7) for M1 patients. A significant improvement over time was observed in age-corrected BC mortality. BC-specific-mortality was higher for men younger than 50 years. Better overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were observed for highly ER+ (P = 0.001), highly PR+ (P = 0.002), highly AR+ disease (P = 0.019). There was no association between OS/RFS and HER-2 status, Ki67, IHC subtypes nor grade. Conclusions: Male BC is usually ER, PR and AR-positive, Luminal B-like/HER2-negative. Of note, 56% patients had T1 tumors but only 4% had BCS. ER was highly positive in >90% of cases but only 77% received adjuvant ET. ER, PR and AR were associated with OS and RFS, whereas grade, Ki67 and IHC surrogates were not. Significant improvement in survival over time was observed.

Factors influencing survival among patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer treated with trastuzumab.

PURPOSE: We have limited capability to predict survival among patients treated for metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer. Further research is warranted to identify significant prognostic and predictive factors. METHODS: We identified all HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients receiving trastuzumab at the Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre (SOCC) from 1999 to 2013 through the Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) Registry (n = 256) and selected patients with available pathology reports (n = 154). A retrospective review was completed documenting clinical, pathologic, and laboratory characteristics at the time of first trastuzumab therapy and survival outcomes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) (primary endpoint) and failure-free survival (FFS), adjusted for the known prognostic factors of the presence of CNS metastases and the presence of ≥ 2 distant metastatic sites. RESULTS: A multivariable model identified older age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.18/decade, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.37)], increased platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (HR 1.75/log-unit, 95% CI 1.25-2.46), increased serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (HR 1.87/log-unit, 95% CI 1.41-2.49), and ER positivity (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.42-0.96) as significant prognostic factors for OS after adjusting for the presence of CNS metastasis (HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.59-6.38) and the presence of ≥ 2 distant metastatic sites (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.19-3.70). PLR (HR 1.54/log-unit, 95% CI 1.12-2.12) was the only prognostic factor associated with FFS after adjusting for CNS and ≥ 2 distant metastatic sites. CONCLUSION: Older age, increased PLR, and ALP were identified as poor prognostic factors and ER positivity as a favorable prognostic factor for OS after adjusting for the presence of CNS metastasis and the presence of number of ≥ 2 distant metastatic sites. Increased PLR was a poor prognostic factor for both OS and FFS, and warrants further investigation into its prognostic ability amongst patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.

Evaluation of applying IHC4 as a prognostic model in the translational study of Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES): PathIES.

BACKGROUND: Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES) was a randomised study that showed a survival benefit of switching adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2-3 years from tamoxifen to exemestane. This PathIES aimed to assess the role of immunohistochemical (IHC)4 score in determining the relative sensitivity to either tamoxifen or sequential treatment with tamoxifen and exemestane. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Primary tumour samples were available for 1274 patients (27% of IES population). Only patients for whom the IHC4 score could be calculated (based on oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2 and Ki67) were included in this analysis (N = 430 patients). The clinical score (C) was based on age, grade, tumour size and nodal status. The association of clinicopathological parameters, IHC4(+C) scores and treatment effect with time to distant recurrence-free survival (TTDR) was assessed in univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. A modified clinical score (PathIEscore) (N = 350) was also estimated. RESULTS: Our results confirm the prognostic importance of the original IHC4, alone and in conjunction with clinical scores, but no significant difference with treatment effects was observed. The combined IHC4 + Clinical PathIES score was prognostic for TTDR (P < 0.001) with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.54 (95% CI 1.29-23.70) for a change from 1st quartile (Q1) to Q1-Q3 and HR of 15.54 (95% CI 3.70-65.24) for a change from Q1 to Q4. CONCLUSION: In the PathIES population, the IHC4 score is useful in predicting long-term relapse in patients who remain disease-free after 2-3 years. This is a first trial to suggest the extending use of IHC4+C score for prognostic indication for patients who have switched endocrine therapies at 2-3 years and who remain disease-free after 2-3 years.

Discrepancies in central review re-testing of patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative breast cancer in the OPTIMA prelim randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data on results of central re-testing of samples from patients with invasive breast cancer categorised in their local hospital laboratories as oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor homologue 2 (HER2) negative. METHODS: The Optimal Personalised Treatment of early breast cancer usIng Multiparameter Analysis preliminary study (OPTIMA prelim) was the feasibility phase of a randomised controlled trial to validate the use of multiparameter assay-directed chemotherapy decisions in the UK National Health Service (NHS). Eligibility criteria included ER positivity and HER2 negativity. Central re-testing of receptor status was mandatory. RESULTS: Of the 431 patients tested centrally, discrepant results between central and local laboratory results were identified in only 19 (4.4%; 95% confidence interval 2.5-6.3%) patients (with 21 tumours). On central review, seven patients had cancers that were ER-negative (1.6%) and 13 (3.0%) patients with 15 tumours had HER2-positive disease, including one tumour discrepant for both biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Central re-testing of receptor status of invasive breast cancers in the UK NHS setting shows a high level of reproducibility in categorising tumours as ER-positive and HER2-negative, and raises questions regarding the cost effectiveness and clinical value of central re-testing in this sub-group of breast cancers in this setting.

Lymphocyte density determined by computational pathology validated as a predictor of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer: secondary analysis of the ARTemis trial.

BACKGROUND: We have previously shown lymphocyte density, measured using computational pathology, is associated with pathological complete response (pCR) in breast cancer. The clinical validity of this finding in independent studies, among patients receiving different chemotherapy, is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The ARTemis trial randomly assigned 800 women with early stage breast cancer between May 2009 and January 2013 to three cycles of docetaxel, followed by three cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide once every 21 days with or without four cycles of bevacizumab. The primary endpoint was pCR (absence of invasive cancer in the breast and lymph nodes). We quantified lymphocyte density within haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) whole slide images using our previously described computational pathology approach: for every detected lymphocyte the average distance to the nearest 50 lymphocytes was calculated and the density derived from this statistic. We analyzed both pre-treatment biopsies and post-treatment surgical samples of the tumour bed. RESULTS: Of the 781 patients originally included in the primary endpoint analysis of the trial, 609 (78%) were included for baseline lymphocyte density analyses and a subset of 383 (49% of 781) for analyses of change in lymphocyte density. The main reason for loss of patients was the availability of digitized whole slide images. Pre-treatment lymphocyte density modelled as a continuous variable was associated with pCR on univariate analysis (odds ratio [OR], 2.92; 95% CI, 1.78-4.85; P < 0.001) and after adjustment for clinical covariates (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.24-3.67; P = 0.006). Increased pre- to post-treatment lymphocyte density showed an independent inverse association with pCR (adjusted OR, 0.1; 95% CI, 0.033-0.31; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Lymphocyte density in pre-treatment biopsies was validated as an independent predictor of pCR in breast cancer. Computational pathology is emerging as a viable and objective means of identifying predictive biomarkers for cancer patients. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01093235.

Disease-free and overall survival at 3.5 years for neoadjuvant bevacizumab added to docetaxel followed by fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide, for women with HER2 negative early breast cancer: ARTemis Trial.

BACKGROUND: The ARTemis trial previously reported that addition of neoadjuvant bevacizumab (Bev) to docetaxel (D) followed by fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (D-FEC) in HER2 negative breast cancer improved the pathological complete response (pCR) rate. We present disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) with central pathology review. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were randomized to 3 cycles of D followed by 3 cycles of FEC (D-FEC), ±4 cycles of Bev (Bev + D-FEC). DFS and OS were analyzed by treatment and by central pathology reviewed pCR and Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) class. RESULTS: A total of 800 patients were randomized [median follow-up 3.5 years (IQR 3.2-4.4)]. DFS and OS were similar across treatment arms [DFS hazard ratio (HR)=1.18 (95% CI 0.89-1.57), P = 0.25; OS HR = 1.26 (95% CI 0.90-1.76), P = 0.19). Both local pathology report review and central histopathology review confirmed a significant improvement in DFS and OS for patients who achieved a pCR [DFS HR = 0.38 (95% CI 0.23-0.63), P < 0.001; OS HR = 0.43 (95% CI 0.24-0.75), P = 0.003]. However, significant heterogeneity was observed (P = 0.02); larger improvements in DFS were obtained with a pCR achieved with D-FEC than a pCR achieved with Bev + D-FEC. As RCB class increased, significantly worse DFS and OS was observed (P for trend <0.0001), which effect was most marked in the ER negative group. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of short course neoadjuvant Bev to standard chemotherapy did not demonstrate a DFS or OS benefit. Achieving a pCR with D-FEC is associated with improved DFS and OS but not when pCR is achieved with Bev + D-FEC. At the present time therefore, Bev is not recommended in early breast cancer. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV NUMBER: NCT01093235.

Cardiac safety, efficacy, and correlation of serial serum HER2-extracellular domain shed antigen measurement with the outcome of the combined trastuzumab plus CMF in women with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer: results from the EORTC 10995 phase II study.

PURPOSE: Cardiotoxicity is a side effect of trastuzumab. We assessed efficacy and cardiac safety of CMF with trastuzumab (CMF+T) in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients (MBC). METHODS: In this phase II study, centrally confirmed, previously treated HER2-positive MBC patients with measurable disease (per RECIST v 1.0) were enrolled. Initially, patients were randomized between 8 CMF cycles alone or combined with trastuzumab during chemotherapy, followed by 3-weekly trastuzumab maintenance till progression. A protocol amendment dropped the CMF arm and thereafter all patients received CMF+T. Translational research for prediction of treatment benefit was performed through serial serum HER2-shed antigen assessments. RESULTS: Ninety patients (CMF: 19; CMF+T: 71) were enrolled between 2002 and 2006. Median age was 54 years. 42 patients had prior chemotherapy (33 with anthracyclines) and 41/71 patients who received CMF+T continued trastuzumab monotherapy for a median duration of 40 weeks. Overall response rate was 50% for CMF+T (35/70) and 32% for CMF (6/19). Median duration of response was 10.3 months and 5.4 months, respectively. Median progression-free survival was 9.4 months (95% CI 8.1-11.6) and 4.8 months (95% CI 2.8-7.9), respectively. In the CMF+T arm, 13(18%) patients had an absolute LVEF decline, including 3 patients developing any grade of New York Heart Association cardiac dysfunction. Patients with an increase of 30% over baseline shed antigen had a higher progression risk (95% CI 7.6, 3.9-14.8). CONCLUSIONS: CMF+T is effective, with an acceptable cardiotoxicity profile. LVEF declines were mostly asymptomatic and occurred irrespective of previous anthracycline exposure. CMF+T can be considered for these patients, if other cytotoxics are contraindicated.

The BIG 2.04 MRC/EORTC SUPREMO Trial: pathology quality assurance of a large phase 3 randomised international clinical trial of postmastectomy radiotherapy in intermediate-risk breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: SUPREMO is a phase 3 randomised trial evaluating radiotherapy post-mastectomy for intermediate-risk breast cancer. 1688 patients were enrolled from 16 countries between 2006 and 2013. We report the results of central pathology review carried out for quality assurance. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A single recut haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) tumour section was assessed by one of two reviewing pathologists, blinded to the originally reported pathology and patient data. Tumour type, grade and lymphovascular invasion were reviewed to assess if they met the inclusion criteria. Slides from potentially ineligible patients on central review were scanned and reviewed online together by the two pathologists and a consensus reached. A subset of 25 of these cases was double-reported independently by the pathologists prior to the online assessment. RESULTS: The major contributors to the trial were the UK (75%) and the Netherlands (10%). There is a striking difference in lymphovascular invasion (LVi) rates (41.6 vs. 15.1% (UK); p = <0.0001) and proportions of grade 3 carcinomas (54.0 vs. 42.0% (UK); p = <0.0001) on comparing local reporting with central review. There was no difference in the locally reported frequency of LVi rates in node-positive (N+) and node-negative (N-) subgroups (40.3 vs. 38.0%; p = 0.40) but a significant difference in the reviewed frequency (16.9 vs. 9.9%; p = 0.004). Of the N- cases, 104 (25.1%) would have been ineligible by initial central review by virtue of grade and/or lymphovascular invasion status. Following online consensus review, this fell to 70 cases (16.3% of N- cases, 4.1% of all cases). CONCLUSIONS: These data have important implications for the design, powering and interpretation of outcomes from this and future clinical trials. If critical pathology criteria are determinants for trial entry, serious consideration should be given to up-front central pathology review.

TLE3 is not a predictive biomarker for taxane sensitivity in the NCIC CTG MA.21 clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: TLE3, a nuclear transcriptional repressor downstream of WNT signalling pathways, has been hypothesised as predictive of benefit from adjuvant taxane. METHODS: MA.21 tissue microarrays were constructed from 1097 out of 2104 (52%) patients. TLE3 staining by immunohistochemistry used validated methodology. Continuous TLE3+ (percentage of cells staining positive) was assessed with both visual and automated scoring. The primary objective was to test the predictive effect of TLE3 on relapse-free survival using the MA.21 EC/T and CEF arms and the previously defined cut-point of 30% of cells staining positive in ⩾1 core/tumour. RESULTS: MA.21 patients had 83.2% TLE3 positive (TLE3+) tumours by visual score and 80.6% TLE3+ by automated image analysis while the previously observed rate of TLE3+ cases was 58.6%. TLE3 expression was significantly associated with ER expression (91.2% of ER-positive tumours were TLE3+; P<0.0001). At median 8-year follow-up, there was no evidence of a predictive effect of TLE3 expression with respect to taxane benefit using the established 30% or exploratory quartile cut-points. CONCLUSIONS: Proportionately more MA.21 patient tumours than expected were TLE3+. The pre-specified TLE3+ cut-point of 30% was not predictive of taxane benefit. TLE3 expression does not represent a viable biomarker for taxane benefit in breast cancer.

Prognostic and predictive value of ERß1 and ERß2 in the Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES)-first results from PathIES†.

BACKGROUND: Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES) was a randomised study that showed a survival benefit of switching adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2-3 years from tamoxifen to exemestane. PathIES aimed to assess the potential prognostic and predictive value of ERß1 and ERß2 expression in primary tumours in order to determine benefit in the two treatment arms. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Primary tumour samples were available for 1256 patients (27% IES population). ERß1 and ERß2 expression was dichotomised at the median IHC score (high if ERß1 ≥ 191, ERß2 ≥ 164). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for clinicopathological factors. Treatment effects with biomarker expressions were determined by interaction tests. Analysis explored effects of markers both as a continuous variable and with dichotomised cut-offs. RESULTS: Neither ERß1 nor ERß2 were associated with disease-free survival (DFS) or overall survival (OS) in the whole cohort. In patients treated with continued tamoxifen, high ERß1 expression compared with low was associated with better DFS [HR = 0.38:95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.68, P = 0.001]. DFS benefit of exemestane over tamoxifen (HR = 0.40:95% CI 0.22-0.70) was found in the low ERß1 subgroup (interaction P = 0.01). No significant difference with treatment was observed for ERß2 expression in either DFS or OS. CONCLUSION: In the PathIES population, exemestane appeared to be superior to tamoxifen among patients with low ERß1 expression but not in those with high ERß1 expression. This is the first trial of its kind to report a parameter potentially predicting benefit of an aromatase inhibitor when compared with tamoxifen and an independent validation is warranted.

The prognostic and predictive value of Tregs and tumor immune subtypes in postmenopausal, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy: a Dutch TEAM study analysis.

Evidence exists for an immunomodulatory effect of endocrine therapy in hormone receptor-positive (HR+ve) breast cancer (BC). Therefore, the aim of this study was to define the prognostic and predictive value of tumor immune markers and the tumor immune profile in HR+ve BC, treated with different endocrine treatment regimens. 2,596 Dutch TEAM patients were treated with 5 years of adjuvant hormonal treatment, randomly assigned to different regimens: 5 years of exemestane or sequential treatment (2.5 years of tamoxifen-2.5 years of exemestane). Immunohistochemistry was performed for HLA class I, HLA-E, HLA-G, and FoxP3. Tumor immune subtypes (IS) (low, intermediate & high immune susceptible) were determined by the effect size of mono-immune markers on relapse rate. Patients on sequential treatment with high level of tumor-infiltrating FoxP3+ cells had significant (p = 0.019, HR 0.729, 95% CI 0.560-0.949) better OS. Significant interaction for endocrine treatment and FoxP3+ presence was seen (OS p < 0.001). Tumor IS were only of prognostic value for the sequentially endocrine-treated patients (RFP: p = 0.035, HR intermediate IS 1.420, 95% CI 0.878-2.297; HR low IS 1.657, 95% CI 1.131-2.428; BCSS: p = 0.002, HR intermediate IS 2.486, 95% CI 1.375-4.495; HR low IS 2.422, 95% CI 1.439-4.076; and OS: p = 0.005, HR intermediate IS 1.509, 95% CI 0.950-2.395; HR low IS 1.848, 95% CI 1.277-2.675). Tregs and the tumor IS presented in this study harbor prognostic value for sequentially endocrine-treated HR+ve postmenopausal BC patients, but not for solely exemestane-treated patients. Therefore, these markers could be used as a clinical risk stratification tool to guide adjuvant treatment in this BC population.

Time dependence of biomarkers: non-proportional effects of immunohistochemical panels predicting relapse risk in early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the impact of follow-up duration to determine whether two immunohistochemical prognostic panels, IHC4 and Mammostrat, provide information on the risk of early or late distant recurrence using the Edinburgh Breast Conservation Series and the Tamoxifen vs Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial. METHODS: The multivariable fractional polynomial time (MFPT) algorithm was used to determine which variables had possible non-proportional effects. The performance of the scores was assessed at various lengths of follow-up and Cox regression modelling was performed over the intervals of 0-5 years and >5 years. RESULTS: We observed a strong time dependence of both the IHC4 and Mammostrat scores, with their effects decreasing over time. In the first 5 years of follow-up only, the addition of both scores to clinical factors provided statistically significant information (P<0.05), with increases in R(2) between 5 and 6% and increases in D-statistic between 0.16 and 0.21. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses confirm that the IHC4 and Mammostrat scores are strong prognostic factors for time to distant recurrence but this is restricted to the first 5 years after diagnosis. This provides evidence for their combined use to predict early recurrence events in order to select those patients who may/will benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Association between CD8+ T-cell infiltration and breast cancer survival in 12,439 patients.

BACKGROUND: T-cell infiltration in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast tumours has been associated with longer survival. To investigate this association and the potential of tumour T-cell infiltration as a prognostic and predictive marker, we have conducted the largest study of T cells in breast cancer to date. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Four studies totalling 12 439 patients were used for this work. Cytotoxic (CD8+) and regulatory (forkhead box protein 3, FOXP3+) T cells were quantified using immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC for CD8 was conducted using available material from all four studies (8978 samples) and for FOXP3 from three studies (5239 samples)-multiple imputation was used to resolve missing data from the remaining patients. Cox regression was used to test for associations with breast cancer-specific survival. RESULTS: In ER-negative tumours [triple-negative breast cancer and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive)], presence of CD8+ T cells within the tumour was associated with a 28% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16% to 38%] reduction in the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality, and CD8+ T cells within the stroma with a 21% (95% CI 7% to 33%) reduction in hazard. In ER-positive HER2-positive tumours, CD8+ T cells within the tumour were associated with a 27% (95% CI 4% to 44%) reduction in hazard. In ER-negative disease, there was evidence for greater benefit from anthracyclines in the National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial in patients with CD8+ tumours [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.54; 95% CI 0.37-0.79] versus CD8-negative tumours (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.55-1.38). The difference in effect between these subgroups was significant when limited to cases with complete data (P heterogeneity = 0.04) and approached significance in imputed data (P heterogeneity = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of CD8+ T cells in breast cancer is associated with a significant reduction in the relative risk of death from disease in both the ER-negative [supplementary Figure S1, available at Annals of Oncology online] and the ER-positive HER2-positive subtypes. Tumour lymphocytic infiltration may improve risk stratification in breast cancer patients classified into these subtypes. NEAT ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00003577.

Assessment of microtubule-associated protein (MAP)-Tau expression as a predictive and prognostic marker in TACT; a trial assessing substitution of sequential docetaxel for FEC as adjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer.

The TACT trial is the largest study assessing the benefit of taxanes as part of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. The goal of this translational study was to clarify the predictive and prognostic value of Tau within the TACT trial. Tissue microarrays (TMA) were available from 3,610 patients. ER, PR, HER2 from the TACT trial and Tau protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry on duplicate TMAs. Two parallel scoring systems were generated for Tau expression ('dichotomised' vs. 'combined' score). The positivity rate of Tau expression was 50 % in the trial population (n = 2,483). Tau expression correlated positively with ER (p < 0.001) and PR status (p < 0.001); but negatively with histological grade (p < 0.001) and HER2 status (p < 0.001). Analyses with either scoring systems for Tau expression demonstrated no significant interaction between Tau expression and efficacy of docetaxel. Contrary to the hypothesis that taxane benefit would be enriched in Tau negative/low patients, the only groups with a suggestion of a reduced event rate in the taxane group were the HER2-positive, Tau positive subgroups. Tau expression was seen to be a prognostic factor on univariate analysis associated with an improved DFS, independent of the treatment group (p < 0.001). It had no prognostic value in ER-negative tumours and the weak prognostic effect of Tau in ER-positive tumours (p = 0.02) diminished, when considering ER as an ordinal variable. On multivariable analyses, Tau had no prognostic value in either group. In addition, no significant interaction between Tau expression and benefit from docetaxel in patients within the PR-positive and negative subsets was seen. This is now the second large adjuvant study, and the first with quantitative analysis of ER and Tau expression, failing to show an association between Tau and taxane benefit with limited utility as a prognostic marker for Tau in ER-positive early breast cancer patients.

Do type 1 receptor tyrosine kinases inform treatment choice? A prospectively planned analysis of the TEAM trial.

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptors contribute to breast cancer relapse during endocrine therapy. Substitution of aromatase inhibitors (AIs) may improve outcomes in HER-positive cancers. METHODS: Tissue microarrays were constructed. Quantitative analysis of HER1, HER2, and HER3 was performed. Data were analysed relative to disease-free survival and treatment using outcomes at 2.75 and 6.5 years. RESULTS: Among 4541 eligible samples, 4225 (93%) had complete HER1-3 data. Overall, 5% were HER1-positive, 13% HER2-positive, and 21% HER3-positive; 32% (n=1351) overexpressed at least one HER receptor. In the HER1-3-negative subgroup, the hazard ratio (HR) for upfront exemestane vs tamoxifen at 2.75 years was 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-0.87), in the HER1-3-positive subgroup, the HR was 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85-1.56). A prospectively planned treatment-by-marker analysis demonstrated a significant interaction between HER1-3 and treatment at 2.75 years (HR=0.58; 95% CI, 0.39-0.87; P=0.008), as confirmed by multivariate regression analysis adjusting for prognostic factors (HR=0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.85; P=0.005). This effect was time dependent. CONCLUSION: In the 2.75 years prior to switching patients initially treated with tamoxifen to exemestane, a significant treatment-by-marker effect exists between AI/tamoxifen treatment and HER1-3 expression, suggesting HER expression could be used to select appropriate endocrine treatment at diagnosis to prevent or delay early relapses.

Chromosome instability and benefit from adjuvant anthracyclines in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Duplication of the centromeric region of chromosome 17 (Ch17CEP) is associated with sensitivity to anthracyclines. An explanation may be chromosome instability (CIN); a frequent event in solid tumours associated with poor outcome. The predictive value of CIN seems to be drug dependent and CIN has been associated with both sensitivity and resistance to chemotherapy. METHODS: In this study, we used fluorescent in situ hybridisation for chromosomes 1, 7, 11, 17 and 18 to identify patients with high tumour CIN% in 322 patients recruited into the BR9601 clinical trial. RESULTS: High tumour CIN% was correlated to Ch17CEP (P=3.68e-7) and is associated with a reduced RFS (P=0.0011) and OS (P=0.04). Patients with high CIN had a decreased risk of death on E-CMF compared with CMF. CONCLUSION: CIN is of prognostic significance and may be of predictive value in determining anthracycline response, although further testing is required.

Adjuvant epirubicin followed by cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil (CMF) vs CMF in early breast cancer: results with over 7 years median follow-up from the randomised phase III NEAT/BR9601 trials.

BACKGROUND: The National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial (NEAT) and BR9601 trials tested the benefit of epirubicin when added to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil (E-CMF) compared with standard CMF in adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early breast cancer. This report details longer follow-up with interesting additional time-dependent analyses. METHODS: National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial used epirubicin (E) 3-weekly for four cycles followed by classical (c) CMF for four cycles (E-CMF) compared with cCMF for six cycles. BR9601 used E 3-weekly for four cycles followed by CMF 3-weekly for four cycles, compared with CMF 3-weekly for eight cycles. RESULTS: In all, 2391 eligible patients were randomised and with a median 7.4-year follow-up, E-CMF confirmed a significant benefit over CMF in both relapse-free survival (RFS) (78% vs 71% 5 years RFS, respectively, hazard ratio (HR)=0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.86), P<0.0001) and overall survival (OS) (84% vs 78% 5 years OS, respectively, HR=0.76 (95% CI: 0.65-0.89), P=0.0007). Interaction of treatment effect and prognostic factors was demonstrated for duplication of chromosome 17 centromeric enumeration (Ch17CEP) as previously reported. Poor prognostic factors at diagnosis (ER and PR negative and HER2 positive) showed time-dependent annual hazard rates for RFS and OS. In univariate analysis, these factors demonstrated more favourable HRs for RFS after 5 years. Treatment effects also suggested a differential benefit for E-CMF within the first 5 years for poor prognosis tumours. CONCLUSION: Longer follow-up has confirmed E-CMF as significantly superior to CMF for all patients. Ch17CEP duplication was the only biomarker that demonstrated significant treatment interaction. Standard poor prognostic factors at diagnosis were time-dependent, and after 5 years disease-free, poor prognosis patients demonstrated favourable HRs for survival.

Relationship between specific adverse events and efficacy of exemestane therapy in early postmenopausal breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Many adverse events (AEs) associated with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) involve symptoms related to the depletion of circulating estrogens, and may be related to efficacy. We assessed the relationship between specific AEs [hot flashes (HF) and musculoskeletal AEs (MSAE)] and survival outcomes in Dutch and Belgian patients treated with exemestane (EXE) in the Tamoxifen Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial. Additionally, the relationship between hormone receptor expression and AEs was assessed. METHODS: Efficacy end points were relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM), starting at 6 months after starting EXE treatment. AEs reported in the first 6 months of treatment were included. Specific AEs comprised HF and/or MSAE. Landmark analyses and Cox proportional hazards models assessed survival differences up to 5 years. RESULTS: A total of 1485 EXE patients were included. Patients with HF had a better RFS than patients without HF [multivariate hazard ratio (HR) 0.393, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.19-0.813; P = 0.012]. The occurrence of MSAE versus no MSAE did not relate to better RFS (multivariate HR 0.677, 95% CI 0.392-1.169; P = 0.162). Trends were maintained for OS and BCSM. Quantitative hormone receptor expression was not associated with specific AEs. CONCLUSIONS: Some AEs associated with estrogen depletion are related to better outcomes and may be valuable biomarkers in AI treatment.