Ecologically informed priors improve Bayesian model estimates of species richness and occupancy for undetected species.

Detection error can bias observations of ecological processes, especially when some species are never detected during sampling. In many communities, the probable identity of these missing species is known from previous research and natural history collections, but this information is rarely incorporated into subsequent models. Here, I present prior aggregation as a method for including information from external sources in Bayesian hierarchical detection models. Prior aggregation combines information from multiple prior distributions, in this case, an ecologically informative, species-level prior, and an uninformative community-level prior. This approach incorporates external information into the model without sacrificing the advantages of modeling species in the context of the community. Using simulated data supplied to a multispecies occupancy model, I demonstrated that prior aggregation improves estimates of (1) metacommunity richness and (2) environmental covariates were associated with species-specific occupancy probabilities. When applied to a dataset of small mammals in Vermont, prior aggregation allowed the model to estimate occupancy correlates of the Eastern cottontail Sylvilagus floridanus, a species observed at several sites in the region but never captured. Prior aggregation can be used to improve the analysis of several important metrics in population and community ecology, including abundance, survivorship, and diversity.

Oral Rabies Vaccination of Raccoons (Procyon lotor) across a Development Intensity Gradient in Burlington, Vermont, USA, 2015-2017.

Management of the raccoon rabies virus variant in North America is conducted primarily using oral rabies vaccination (ORV). When a sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated (∼60%), rabies transmission can be eliminated. To date, ORV programs have successfully controlled and eliminated raccoon rabies in rural areas, but there has been less success in urban areas. We studied the proportions of rabies virus neutralizing antibodies (RVNA) in a raccoon (Procyon lotor) population during a 3-yr ORV trial in developed areas of Burlington, Vermont, US. We used a modified N-mixture model to estimate raccoon abundance, RVNA seroprevalence, and capture rates jointly to examine factors that relate to ORV success to better inform management. We found that raccoon abundance was lower in less-developed areas compared to urban centers. Raccoon RVNA seroprevalence decreased as population abundance increased; it increased as the average age of the population increased. Nontarget opossum (Didelphis virginiana) captures correlated with a decrease in raccoon RVNA seroprevalence in low-development areas, suggesting that they may be competing for baits. The target bait density across the entire study area was 150 baits/km2, but a hand baiting strategy was heavily concentrated on roads, resulting in uneven bait densities within sampling sites (0-484 baits/km2). Uneven bait distribution across the study area may explain low RVNA seroprevalence in some locations. Our results suggest that increases in bait density across the study area may improve RVNA seroprevalence and support annual ORV to account for raccoon population turnover.