The anthropocene biogeography of alien birds on islands: Drivers of their functional and phylogenetic diversities.

A branch of island biogeography has emerged to explain alien species diversity in the light of the biogeographic and anthropogenic context, yet overlooking the functional and phylogenetic facets. Evaluating alien and native birds of 407 oceanic islands worldwide, we built structural equation models to assess the direct and indirect influence of biotic, geographic, and anthropogenic contexts on alien functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). We found that alien taxonomic richness was the main predictor of both diversities. Anthropogenic factors, including colonization pressure, associated with classic biogeographical variables also strongly influenced alien FD and PD. Specifically, habitat modification and human connectivity markedly drove alien FD, especially when controlled by taxonomic richness, whereas the human population size, gross domestic product, and native PD were crucial at explaining alien PD. Our findings suggest that humans not only shape taxonomic richness but also other facets of alien diversity in a complex way.

When origin, reproduction ability and diet define the role of birds in invasions.

The ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) are increasingly documented; however, they are usually studied through the lens of either the IAS or the affected species (IAS-threatened species). A clear understanding of how both protagonists of biological invasions are characterized is still lacking. We investigated the morphology, life history and ecology of birds involved in biological invasions. Evaluating the distribution of 450 IAS-threatened birds and 400 alien birds in a functional space, we found that both groups retained various strategies. Aliens had larger clutches and were more likely to be herbivores than IAS-threatened and worldwide birds, while IAS-threatened birds were more insular endemic from the Australia region than alien and worldwide birds. IAS-threatened species showed opposite strategies to aliens regarding traits related to diet, origin and reproduction. Further comparing traits associated with impact magnitude, we found that even if aliens were mostly herbivorous, those with high impact had more a generalist behaviour and an animal-based diet compared to aliens with low impact. By emphasizing differences relating to the distribution of bird groups in a functional space, we opened new opportunities to identify the role of birds in biological invasions.

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Economic costs of protecting islands from invasive alien species.

Biological invasions represent a key threat to insular systems and have pronounced impacts across environments and economies. The ecological impacts have received substantial focus, but the socioeconomic impacts are poorly synthesized across spatial and temporal scales. We used the InvaCost database, the most comprehensive assessment of published economic costs of invasive species, to assess economic impacts on islands worldwide. We analyzed socioeconomic costs across differing expenditure types and examined temporal trends across islands that differ in their political geography-island nation states, overseas territories, and islands of continental countries. Over US$36 billion in total costs (including damages and management) has occurred on islands from 1965 to 2020 due to invasive species' impacts. Nation states incurred the greatest total and management costs, and islands of continental countries incurred costs of similar magnitude, both far higher than those in overseas territories. Damage-loss costs were significantly lower, but with qualitatively similar patterns across differing political geographies. The predominance of management spending differs from the pattern found for most countries examined and suggests important knowledge gaps in the extent of many damage-related socioeconomic impacts. Nation states spent the greatest proportion of their gross domestic products countering these costs, at least 1 order of magnitude higher than other locations. Most costs were borne by authorities and stakeholders, demonstrating the key role of governmental and nongovernmental bodies in addressing island invasions. Temporal trends revealed cost increases across all island types, potentially reflecting efforts to tackle invasive species at larger, more socially complex scales. Nevertheless, the already high total economic costs of island invasions substantiate the role of biosecurity in reducing and preventing invasive species arrivals to reduce strains on limited financial resources and avoid threats to sustainable development goals.

Costos económicos de proteger a las islas de las especies invasoras Resumen Las invasiones biológicas representan una amenaza importante para los sistemas insulares, además de tener impactos pronunciados en el ambiente y en la economía. Los impactos ecológicos han recibido atención sustancial, mientras que los impactos socioeconómicos se encuentran pobremente sintetizados en las escalas temporales y espaciales. Usamos la base de datos InvaCost, el análisis más completo de los costos económicos de las especies invasoras, para evaluar los impactos económicos sobre las islas a nivel mundial. Analizamos los costos socioeconómicos en varios tipos de gastos y examinamos las tendencias temporales en las islas que difieren en su geografía política - islas estado-nación, territorios ultramarinos e islas de países continentales. En las islas han ocurrido gastos de más de $36 mil millones de dólares entre 1965 y 2020 debido a los impactos de las especies invasoras. Las islas estado-nación produjeron los mayores costos de manejo y el mayor total, mientras que las islas de los países continentales produjeron costos de una magnitud similar, ambas con gastos mucho más elevados que los de los territorios ultramarinos. Los costos de las pérdidas por daños fueron significativamente más bajas, aunque con patrones cualitativamente similares entre las diferentes geografías políticas. El predominio del gasto en el manejo difiere del patrón hallado en la mayoría de los países analizados y sugiere que hay vacíos importantes en el conocimiento del alcance de muchos de los impactos socioeconómicos relacionados con los daños. Las islas estado-nación gastaron la mayor proporción de su producto interno bruto en contrarrestar estos costos, al menos una orden de magnitud mayor que las otras localidades. La mayoría de los costos fueron asumidos por las autoridades y los accionistas, lo que demuestra el papel clave que tienen los organismos gubernamentales y no gubernamentales en cómo se atienden las invasiones insulares. Las tendencias temporales revelaron incrementos en el costo en todos los tipos de islas, lo que potencialmente refleja los esfuerzos por combatir a las especies invasoras a escalas más grandes y socialmente más complejas. Aun así, el elevado costo económico total de las invasiones insulares fundamenta la función que tiene la bioseguridad en la reducción y prevención de la llegada de especies invasoras para reducir presiones sobre los recursos financieros limitados y evitar amenazas para las metas de desarrollo sustentable.

Profiling insular vertebrates prone to biological invasions: What makes them vulnerable?

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a major threat to insular vertebrates, although the ecological characteristics that make insular communities vulnerable to IAS are poorly understood. After describing the ecological strategies of 6015 insular amphibians, birds, lizards, and mammals, we assessed the functional and ecological features of vertebrates exposed to IAS. We found that at least 50% of insular amphibian functional richness was hosted by IAS-threatened amphibians and up to 29% for birds. Moreover, all IAS-threatened groups except birds harbored a higher functional richness than species groups threatened by other threats. Disentangling the ecological strategies threatened by IAS, compared to those associated with other threats, we showed that birds, lizards, and mammals were more likely to be terrestrial foragers and amphibians to have larval development. By contrast, large-bodied species and habitat specialists were universally threatened. By considering the functional aspect of threatened insular diversity, our work improves our understanding of global IAS impacts. This new dimension proves essential for undertaking relevant and effective conservation actions.

Looming extinctions due to invasive species: Irreversible loss of ecological strategy and evolutionary history.

Biological invasions are one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide. However, many associated extinctions are yet to occur, meaning that the ecological debt caused by invasive species could be considerable for biodiversity. We explore extinction scenarios due to invasive species and investigate whether paying off the current extinction debt will shift the global composition of mammals and birds in terms of ecological strategy and evolutionary history. Current studies mostly focus on the number of species potentially at risk due to invasions without taking into account species characteristics in terms of ecological or phylogenetic properties. We found that 11% of phylogenetic diversity worldwide is represented by invasive-threatened species. Furthermore, 14% of worldwide trait diversity is hosted by invasive-threatened mammals and 40% by invasive-threatened birds, with Neotropical and Oceanian realms being primary risk hotspots. Projected extinctions of invasive-threatened species result in a smaller reduction in ecological strategy space and evolutionary history than expected under randomized extinction scenarios. This can be explained by the strong pattern in the clustering of ecological profiles and families impacted by invasive alien species (IAS). However, our results confirm that IAS are likely to cause the selective loss of species with unique evolutionary and ecological profiles. Our results also suggest a global shift in species composition away from those with large body mass, which mostly feed in the lower foraging strata and have an herbivorous diet (mammals). Our findings demonstrate the potential impact of biological invasions on phylogenetic and trait dimensions of diversity, especially in the Oceanian realm. We therefore call for a more systematic integration of all facets of diversity when investigating the consequences of biological invasions in future studies. This would help to establish spatial prioritizations regarding IAS threats worldwide and anticipate the consequences of losing specific ecological profiles in the invaded community.

Agriculture erases climate constraints on soil nematode communities across large spatial scales.

Anthropogenic conversion of natural to agricultural land reduces aboveground biodiversity. Yet, the overall consequences of land-use changes on belowground biodiversity at large scales remain insufficiently explored. Furthermore, the effects of conversion on different organism groups are usually determined at the taxonomic level, while an integrated investigation that includes functional and phylogenetic levels is rare and absent for belowground organisms. Here, we studied the Earth's most abundant metazoa-nematodes-to examine the effects of conversion from natural to agricultural habitats on soil biodiversity across a large spatial scale. To this aim, we investigated the diversity and composition of nematode communities at the taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic level in 16 assemblage pairs (32 sites in total with 16 in each habitat type) in mainland China. While the overall alpha and beta diversity did not differ between natural and agricultural systems, all three alpha diversity facets decreased with latitude in natural habitats. Both alpha and beta diversity levels were driven by climatic differences in natural habitats, while none of the diversity levels changed in agricultural systems. This indicates that land conversion affects soil biodiversity in a geographically dependent manner and that agriculture could erase climatic constraints on soil biodiversity at such a scale. Additionally, the functional composition of nematode communities was more dissimilar in agricultural than in natural habitats, while the phylogenetic composition was more similar, indicating that changes among different biodiversity facets are asynchronous. Our study deepens the understanding of land-use effects on soil nematode diversity across large spatial scales. Moreover, the detected asynchrony of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity highlights the necessity to monitor multiple facets of soil biodiversity in ecological studies such as those investigating environmental changes.

Holocene extinctions of a top predator-Effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision.

Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the responses to these drivers differ between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relates to species-specific traits, there is a need for studies of the long-term extinction dynamic of individual species. The goal of this study was to quantify how habitat area and the spatial configuration of habitats affect extinction rate of an aquatic top predator, the northern pike Esox lucius L. We recorded the presence/absence of northern pike in 398 isolated habitat fragments, each one consisting of a number of interconnected lakes. Time since isolation of the habitat fragments, caused by cut-off from the main dispersal source in the Baltic Sea, varied between 0 and 10,000 years. Using survival regression, we analysed how pike population survival was affected by time since isolation, habitat size and habitat subdivision. The approach builds on the assumptions that pike colonized all fragments before isolation and that current absences result from extinctions. We verified these assumptions by testing (a) if pike was present in the region throughout the entire time period when the lakes formed and (b) if pike typically colonize lakes that are formed today. We also addressed the likelihood that unrecorded anthropogenic introductions could bias our estimates of extinction rate. Our results supported the interpretation that current patterns of presence/absence in our study system are shaped by extinctions. Further, we found that time since isolation and fragment area had strong effects on pike population survival. In contrast, spatial habitat subdivision (i.e. if a fragment contained few large lakes or many small lakes) and other environmental covariates describing climate and productivity were unrelated to pike survival. Over all, extinction rate was high in young fragments and decreased sharply with increasing fragment age. Our study demonstrates how the link between extinction rate and habitat size and spatial structure can be quantified. More similar studies may help us find generalizations that can guide management of habitat size and connectivity.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of species loss rate in isolated lakes.

Today, anthropogenic impacts are causing a serious crisis for global biodiversity, with rates of extinction increasing at an unprecedented rate. Extinctions typically occur after a certain delay, and understanding the mechanisms causing delays is a key challenge for both fundamental and applied perspectives. Here, we make use of natural experiments, the isolation of lakes by land uplift in Northern Scandinavia, to examine how yearly extinction rates are affected by time since isolation and a range of abiotic and biotic factors. In this aim, we adapted a model of delayed species loss within isolated communities to test the effects of time since isolation, area, pH, depth and the presence/absence of piscivores on extinction rates. As expected, we found that small and/or young lakes experience a higher annual rate of extinctions per species than larger and/or older ones. Compared to previous studies that were conducted for either young (few thousand years ago) or very old (>10,000 years ago) isolates, we demonstrated over a large and continuous temporal scales (50-5,000 years), similar relationship between extinction rates and age. We also show that extinction rates are modified by local environmental factors such as a strong negative effect of increasing pH. Our results urge for the need to consider the time since critical environmental changes occurred when studying extinction rates. In a wider perspective, our study demonstrates the need to consider extinction debts when modelling future effects of climate change, land-use changes or biological invasions on biodiversity.

Alien species as a driver of recent extinctions.

We assessed the prevalence of alien species as a driver of recent extinctions in five major taxa (plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), using data from the IUCN Red List. Our results show that alien species are the second most common threat associated with species that have gone completely extinct from these taxa since AD 1500. Aliens are the most common threat associated with extinctions in three of the five taxa analysed, and for vertebrate extinctions overall.

Will climate change promote future invasions?

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Major shifts in biogeographic regions of freshwater fishes as evidence of the Anthropocene epoch.

Animals and plants worldwide are structured in global biogeographic regions, which were shaped by major geologic forces during Earth history. Recently, humans have changed the course of events by multiplying global pathways of introduction for nonindigenous species and propagating local species extirpations. Here, we report on how introductions and extirpations have changed the distributions of freshwater fishes worldwide and how it affected their natural biogeographic regions. We found major shifts in natural regions, with the emergence of an intercontinental region arising from the fusion of multiple faunas, which we named Pan-Anthropocenian Global North and East Asia (PAGNEA). The PAGNEA region is evocative of the Pangea supercontinent, as flows of introductions show that dispersal has become possible again across multiple continents, suggesting that human activities have superseded natural geological forces. Our results constitute evidence on the expected modification of biostratigraphic boundaries based on freshwater fish, which are abundant in the fossil record, thereby supporting the concept of the Anthropocene epoch.

Reproducibility in ecology and evolution: Minimum standards for data and code.

We call for journals to commit to requiring open data be archived in a format that will be simple and clear for readers to understand and use. If applied consistently, these requirements will allow contributors to be acknowledged for their work through citation of open data, and facilitate scientific progress.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation.

On 1 and 2 June 2010, an international meeting was held at the University of Paris Sud XI, France, organized within the framework of the EU FP7 consortium project HUNT, to bring together fisheries and conservation scientists to discuss a unified framework for the future of management strategies for harvested species.

Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals.

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions.

Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.

Insular threat associations within taxa worldwide.

The global loss of biodiversity can be attributed to numerous threats. While pioneer studies have investigated their relative importance, the majority of those studies are restricted to specific geographic regions and/or taxonomic groups and only consider a small subset of threats, generally in isolation despite their frequent interaction. Here, we investigated 11 major threats responsible for species decline on islands worldwide. We applied an innovative method of network analyses to disentangle the associations of multiple threats on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in 15 insular regions. Biological invasions, wildlife exploitation, and cultivation, either alone or in association, were found to be the three most important drivers of species extinction and decline on islands. Specifically, wildlife exploitation and cultivation are largely associated with the decline of threatened plants and terrestrial vertebrates, whereas biological invasions mostly threaten invertebrates and freshwater fish. Furthermore, biodiversity in the Indian Ocean and near the Asian coasts is mostly affected by wildlife exploitation and cultivation compared to biological invasions in the Pacific and Atlantic insular regions. We highlighted specific associations of threats at different scales, showing that the analysis of each threat in isolation might be inadequate for developing effective conservation policies and managements.

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography.

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.