Climate Change Shrinks and Fragments Salmon Habitats in a Snow-Dependent Region.

Climate change threatens biodiversity through global alteration of habitats, but efficient conservation responses are often hindered by imprecise downscaling of impacts. Besides thermal effects, warming also drives important ancillary environmental changes, such as when river hydrology evolves in response to climate forcing. Earlier snowmelt runoff and summer flow declines are broadly manifested in snow-dependent regions and relevant to socioeconomically important cold-water fishes. Here, we mechanistically quantify how climate-induced summer flow declines during historical and future periods cause complex local changes in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) habitats for juveniles and spawning adults. Changes consisted of large reductions in useable habitat area and connectivity between the main channel and adjacent off-channel habitats. These reductions decrease the capacity of freshwater habitats to support historical salmon abundances and could pose risks to population persistence in some areas.

Riparian vegetation model to predict seedling recruitment and restoration alternatives.

Native riparian vegetation communities have declined downstream of large water infrastructure like dams and diversions, owing to water management operations that prevent successful seedling colonization and recruitment. Altered timing and magnitude of reservoir releases to fulfill competing water demands often lead to reduced peak discharges and flow recession rates that do not support native riparian reproduction processes. To achieve short-term ecosystem function in highly regulated rivers an alternative method might be restoration planting, whereby success depends on identifying appropriate planting location and spatial extents. This study aims to provide a methodology to inform resource managers about the extent of possible natural seedling recruitment under average and wet hydrologic conditions, as well as constrain restoration planting operational uncertainties. Results from field surveys and simulations showed limited favorable areas for successful riparian seedling recruitment under regulated flows, regardless of hydrologic conditions in the basin. However, wet (11.4 ha) hydrologic conditions were more (approximately 11 times) favorable than average (1 ha) conditions for seedling recruitment. Furthermore, model results identified the location and spatial extent (25.6 ha) of favorable restoration planting areas during average flow. This extent is approximately 25 times larger than natural recruitment during an average (hydrological) year and even twice that for natural recruitment for a wet year. This suggests that ground operational activities guided by numerical modeling may effectively constrain planting uncertainties.

Coupled reservoir-river systems: Lessons from an integrated aquatic ecosystem assessment.

Sustainable reservoir-river management requires balancing complex trade-offs and decision-making to support both human water demands and ecological function. Current numerical simulation and optimization algorithms can guide reservoir-river operations for optimal hydropower production, irrigation, nutrient management, and municipal consumption, yet much less is known about optimization of associated ecosystems. This ten-year study demonstrates an ecosystem assessment approach that links the environmental processes to an ecosystem response in order to evaluate the impact of climatic forcing and reservoir operations on the aquatic ecosystems of a coupled headwater reservoir-river system. The approach uses a series of numerical, statistical, and empirical models to explore reservoir operational flexibility aimed at improving the environmental processes that support aquatic ecosystem function. The results illustrate that understanding the seasonal biogeochemical changes in reservoirs is critical for determining environmental flow releases and the ecological trajectory of both the reservoir and river systems. The coupled models show that reservoir management can improve the ecological function of complex aquatic ecosystems under certain climatic conditions. During dry hydrologic years, the high post-irrigation release can increase the downstream primary and macroinvertebrate production by 99% and 45% respectively. However, this flow release would reduce total fish biomass in the reservoir by 16%, providing management tradeoffs to the different ecosystems. Additionally, low post-irrigation flows during the winter season supports water temperature that can maintain ice cover in the downstream river for improved ecosystem function. The ecosystem assessment approach provides operational flexibility for large infrastructure, supports transparent decision-making by management agencies, and facilitates framing of environmental legislation.

Dam operations may improve aquatic habitat and offset negative effects of climate change.

Dam operation impacts on stream hydraulics and ecological processes are well documented, but their effect depends on geographical regions and varies spatially and temporally. Many studies have quantified their effects on aquatic ecosystem based mostly on flow hydraulics overlooking stream water temperature and climatic conditions. Here, we used an integrated modeling framework, an ecohydraulics virtual watershed, that links catchment hydrology, hydraulics, stream water temperature and aquatic habitat models to test the hypothesis that reservoir management may help to mitigate some impacts caused by climate change on downstream flows and temperature. To address this hypothesis we applied the model to analyze the impact of reservoir operation (regulated flows) on Bull Trout, a cold water obligate salmonid, habitat, against unregulated flows for dry, average, and wet climatic conditions in the South Fork Boise River (SFBR), Idaho, USA.

Floodplain forest succession reveals fluvial processes: A hydrogeomorphic model for temperate riparian woodlands.

River valley floodplains are physically-dynamic environments where fluvial processes determine habitat gradients for riparian vegetation. These zones support trees and shrubs whose life stages are adapted to specific habitat types and consequently forest composition and successional stage reflect the underlying hydrogeomorphic processes and history. In this study we investigated woodland vegetation composition, successional stage and habitat properties, and compared these with physically-based indicators of hydraulic processes. We thus sought to develop a hydrogeomorphic model to evaluate riparian woodland condition based on the spatial mosaic of successional phases of the floodplain forest. The study investigated free-flowing and dam-impacted reaches of the Kootenai and Flathead Rivers, in Idaho and Montana, USA and British Columbia, Canada. The analyses revealed strong correspondence between vegetation assessments and metrics of fluvial processes indicating morphodynamics (erosion and shear stress), inundation and depth to groundwater. The results indicated that common successional stages generally occupied similar hydraulic environments along the different river segments. Comparison of the spatial patterns between the free-flowing and regulated reaches revealed greater deviation from the natural condition for the braided channel segment than for the meandering segment. This demonstrates the utility of the hydrogeomorphic approach and suggests that riparian woodlands along braided channels could have lower resilience than those along meandering channels and might be more vulnerable to influences such as from river damming or climate change.

Development of a spatially-distributed hydroecological model to simulate cottonwood seedling recruitment along rivers.

Dam operations have altered flood and flow patterns and prevented successful cottonwood seedling recruitment along many rivers. To guide reservoir flow releases to meet cottonwood recruitment needs, we developed a spatially-distributed, GIS-based model that analyzes the hydrophysical requirements for cottonwood recruitment. These requirements are indicated by five physical parameters: (1) annual peak flow timing relative to the interval of seed dispersal, (2) shear stress, which characterizes disturbance, (3) local stage recession after seedling recruitment, (4) recruitment elevation above base flow stage, and (5) duration of winter flooding, which may contribute to seedling mortality. The model categorizes the potential for cottonwood recruitment in four classes and attributes a suitability value at each individual spatial location. The model accuracy was estimated with an error matrix analysis by comparing simulated and field-observed recruitment success. The overall accuracies of this Spatially-Distributed Cottonwood Recruitment model were 47% for a braided reach and 68% for a meander reach along the Kootenai River in Idaho, USA. Model accuracies increased to 64% and 72%, respectively, when fewer favorability classes were considered. The model predicted areas of similarly favorable recruitment potential for 1997 and 2006, two recent years with successful cottonwood recruitment. This model should provide a useful tool to quantify impacts of human activities and climatic variability on cottonwood recruitment, and to prescribe instream flow regimes for the conservation and restoration of riparian woodlands.

Impact of flow regulation on stream morphology and habitat quality distribution.

The importance of interactions among stream hydrology, morphology, and biology is well recognized in studies of stream ecosystems. However, when quantifying the impacts of altered flow on aquatic habitat, results are often based either on combined changes in topography and flow, or with altered flow over static topography. Here, we study the potential beneficial effects of restoring unregulated flows on salmonid habitat and separate the relative influences of changes in flow vs. topography. We hypothesize that flow restoration will increase topographic complexity and that the coevolution of topography with altered streamflow will produce stronger changes in habitat than predicted for static topography. We address this hypothesis by quantifying spawning and juvenile rearing habitat distributions for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from a set of quasi-three-dimensional hydromorphodynamic models for two morphologically distinct reaches along the Lemhi River, Idaho (USA): an engineered, straightened, plane-bed reach, and a less-altered, meandering, pool-riffle reach. Sediment transport was modeled with hydrographs predicted for actual interannual variability of flow and for a synthetic annual flow representing the ensemble actual hydrographs for 60 years of regulated and unregulated flows. The actual and synthetic hydrographs predicted from the model produced similar morphologic results, which implies that interannual flow variation and hydrograph order did not have a strong effect on the modeled topography. Unregulated hydrographs enhanced the geometry and frequency of pools in the meandering reach compared to regulated flows. These morphological changes did not increase habitat quality predicted from suitability indices, but the large growth of pools likely improved winter refugia for juvenile salmon. In the straight reach, both regulated and unregulated scenarios resulted in a plane-bed morphology, suggesting that flow restoration in highly altered reaches is not sufficient to improve ecological function.

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA.

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.