Neurofilament Light Chain and Risk of Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers reflecting brain injury are not routinely used in risk assessment of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF). Neurofilament light chain (NFL) is a novel biomarker released into blood after cerebral insults. We investigated the association between plasma concentrations of NFL, other biomarkers, and risk of stroke and death in patients with AF not receiving oral anticoagulation. METHODS: For this observational study, baseline plasma samples were available from 3077 patients with AF randomized to aspirin in ACTIVE A (Atrial Fibrillation Clopidogrel Trial With Irbesartan for Prevention of Vascular Events; 2003 to 2008) and AVERROES (Apixaban Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid [ASA] to Prevent Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Who Have Failed or Are Unsuitable for Vitamin K Antagonist Treatment; 2007 to 2009). Median follow-up was 1.5 years. NFL was analyzed with a Single Molecule Array (Simoa). Associations with outcomes (total stroke or systemic embolism, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death) were explored with Cox regression models. RESULTS: In the combined cohort, the median NFL level was 16.9 ng/L (interquartile range, 11.1-26.5 ng/L), the median age was 71 years, 58% were men, and 13% had a history of previous stroke. NFL was associated with older age, higher creatinine, lower body mass index, previous stroke, female sex, and diabetes but not cardiac rhythm. Higher NFL was associated with a higher risk of stroke or systemic embolism (n=206) independently of clinical characteristics (hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.10-1.46] per doubling of NFL) and other biomarkers (hazard ratio, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.01-1.37]) and including in patients without previous stroke (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.02-1.48]). NFL was also independently associated with cardiovascular (n=219) and all-cause (n=311) death. The C index for stroke using only NFL was 0.642, on par with the currently used clinical risk scores. Addition of information on NFL improved discrimination in a model also including clinical information, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, yielding a C index of 0.727. CONCLUSIONS: NFL reflects overt and covert episodes of cerebral ischemia and improves risk assessment of stroke and death in patients with AF without oral anticoagulation, including in patients without previous stroke. The combination of NFL with information on age, history of stroke, and other biomarkers should be explored as a future avenue for stroke risk assessments in patients with AF.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Patients With Device-Detected Atrial Fibrillation: A Study-Level Meta-Analysis of the NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA Trials.

BACKGROUND: Device-detected atrial fibrillation (also known as subclinical atrial fibrillation or atrial high-rate episodes) is a common finding in patients with an implanted cardiac rhythm device and is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. Whether oral anticoagulation is effective and safe in this patient population is unclear. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of MEDLINE and Embase for randomized trials comparing oral anticoagulation with antiplatelet or no antithrombotic therapy in adults with device-detected atrial fibrillation recorded by a pacemaker, implantable cardioverter defibrillator, cardiac resynchronization therapy device, or implanted cardiac monitor. We used random-effects models for meta-analysis and rated the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework (GRADE). The review was preregistered (PROSPERO CRD42023463212). RESULTS: From 785 citations, we identified 2 randomized trials with relevant clinical outcome data: NOAH-AFNET 6 (Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Atrial High Rate Episodes; 2536 participants) evaluated edoxaban, and ARTESiA (Apixaban for the Reduction of Thrombo-Embolism in Patients With Device-Detected Sub-Clinical Atrial Fibrillation; 4012 participants) evaluated apixaban. Meta-analysis demonstrated that oral anticoagulation with these agents reduced ischemic stroke (relative risk [RR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.50-0.92]; high-quality evidence). The results from the 2 trials were consistent (I2 statistic for heterogeneity=0%). Oral anticoagulation also reduced a composite of cardiovascular death, all-cause stroke, peripheral arterial embolism, myocardial infarction, or pulmonary embolism (RR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.73-0.99]; I2=0%; moderate-quality evidence). There was no reduction in cardiovascular death (RR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.76-1.17]; I2=0%; moderate-quality evidence) or all-cause mortality (RR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.96-1.21]; I2=0%; moderate-quality evidence). Oral anticoagulation increased major bleeding (RR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.05-2.50]; I²=61%; high-quality evidence). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA trials are consistent with each other. Meta-analysis of these 2 large randomized trials provides high-quality evidence that oral anticoagulation with edoxaban or apixaban reduces the risk of stroke in patients with device-detected atrial fibrillation and increases the risk of major bleeding.

Risk of Stroke or Systemic Embolism According to Baseline Frequency and Duration of Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARTESiA Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the ARTESiA trial (Apixaban for the Reduction of Thromboembolism in Patients With Device-Detected Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation), apixaban, compared with aspirin, reduced stroke or systemic embolism in patients with device-detected subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF). Clinical guidelines recommend considering SCAF episode duration when deciding whether to prescribe oral anticoagulation for this population. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in ARTESiA. Using Cox regression adjusted for CHA2DS2-VASc score and treatment allocation (apixaban or aspirin), we assessed frequency of SCAF episodes and duration of the longest SCAF episode in the 6 months before randomization as predictors of stroke risk and of apixaban treatment effect. RESULTS: Among 3986 patients with complete baseline SCAF data, 703 (17.6%) had no SCAF episode ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment. Among 3283 patients (82.4%) with ≥1 episode of SCAF ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment, 2542 (77.4%) had up to 5 episodes, and 741 (22.6%) had ≥6 episodes. The longest episode lasted <1 hour in 1030 patients (31.4%), 1 to <6 hours in 1421 patients (43.3%), and >6 hours in 832 patients (25.3%). Higher baseline SCAF frequency was not associated with increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism: 1.1% for 1 to 5 episodes versus 1.2%/patient-year for ≥6 episodes (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.59-1.34]). In an exploratory analysis, patients with previous SCAF but no episode ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment had a lower risk of stroke or systemic embolism than patients with at least one episode during that period (0.5% versus 1.1%/patient-year; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.27-0.85]). The frequency of SCAF did not modify the reduction in stroke or systemic embolism with apixaban (Pinteraction=0.1). The duration of the longest SCAF episode in the 6 months before enrollment was not associated with the risk of stroke or systemic embolism during follow-up (<1 hour: 1.0%/patient-year [reference]; 1-6 hours: 1.2%/patient-year [adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 (95% CI, 0.85-1.90)]; >6 hours: 1.0%/patient-year [adjusted hazard ratio, 1.02 (95% CI, 0.63-1.66)]). SCAF duration did not modify the reduction in stroke or systemic embolism with apixaban (Ptrend=0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In ARTESiA, baseline SCAF frequency and longest episode duration were not associated with risk of stroke or systemic embolism and did not modify the effect of apixaban on reduction of stroke or systemic embolism. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01938248.

Rivaroxaban in Rheumatic Heart Disease-Associated Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Testing of factor Xa inhibitors for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with rheumatic heart disease-associated atrial fibrillation has been limited. METHODS: We enrolled patients with atrial fibrillation and echocardiographically documented rheumatic heart disease who had any of the following: a CHA2DS2VASc score of at least 2 (on a scale from 0 to 9, with higher scores indicating a higher risk of stroke), a mitral-valve area of no more than 2 cm2, left atrial spontaneous echo contrast, or left atrial thrombus. Patients were randomly assigned to receive standard doses of rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted vitamin K antagonist. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, or death from vascular (cardiac or noncardiac) or unknown causes. We hypothesized that rivaroxaban therapy would be noninferior to vitamin K antagonist therapy. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding according to the International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis. RESULTS: Of 4565 enrolled patients, 4531 were included in the final analysis. The mean age of the patients was 50.5 years, and 72.3% were women. Permanent discontinuation of trial medication was more common with rivaroxaban than with vitamin K antagonist therapy at all visits. In the intention-to-treat analysis, 560 patients in the rivaroxaban group and 446 in the vitamin K antagonist group had a primary-outcome event. Survival curves were nonproportional. The restricted mean survival time was 1599 days in the rivaroxaban group and 1675 days in the vitamin K antagonist group (difference, -76 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], -121 to -31; P<0.001). A higher incidence of death occurred in the rivaroxaban group than in the vitamin K antagonist group (restricted mean survival time, 1608 days vs. 1680 days; difference, -72 days; 95% CI, -117 to -28). No significant between-group difference in the rate of major bleeding was noted. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with rheumatic heart disease-associated atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonist therapy led to a lower rate of a composite of cardiovascular events or death than rivaroxaban therapy, without a higher rate of bleeding. (Funded by Bayer; INVICTUS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02832544.).

Prevalence and Distribution of Intracranial Vessel Occlusion on Angiography and Its Association with Functional Outcome in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Presenting with Ischemic Stroke.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence and distribution of intracranial vessel occlusion identified on computed tomography (CT) or magnet resonance (MR) angiography and to explore its association with functional outcome in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. METHODS: Multicenter cohort study enrolling consecutive patients with AF with imaging-confirmed ischemic stroke who underwent CT- or MR-angiography on admission (2014-2022). Multivariable regression was used to explore the association between intracranial vessel occlusion and poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3-6) at 90 days. RESULTS: The analysis included 10,164 patients (median age 81.5 years, 47.8% female, median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission 6; 14.7% on a vitamin K antagonist [VKA], 27.5% on a direct oral anticoagulant [DOAC], 57.8% not receiving oral anticoagulation). Angiography showed intracranial vessel occlusion in 5,190 patients (51.1%), affecting the anterior cerebral circulation in 87.4%. Overall, 29.2% and 29.4% of patients received thrombolysis and mechanical thrombectomy, respectively. The proportion of patients with poor functional outcome at 90 days was 60.6% and 42.7% in those with and without vessel occlusion, respectively. In multivariable analyses, vessel occlusion was associated with poor functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.71-2.22) with consistent results in subgroups according to oral anticoagulation use (VKA, aOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.40-2.80; DOAC, aOR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.83-3.03; none, aOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.49-2.09). INTERPRETATION: Intracranial vessel occlusion is common in patients with AF with ischemic stroke, mainly affects the anterior circulation and is associated with poor functional outcome. ANN NEUROL 2024.

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of clinical trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) improve cardiovascular outcomes in a variety of settings. This study aimed to assess whether cardioprotective effects of MRAs are modified by heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) status and to study their impact on AF events. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central databases were searched to 24 March 2023 for randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of MRAs as compared with placebo or usual care in reducing cardiovascular outcomes and AF events in patients with or at risk for cardiovascular diseases. Random-effects models and interaction analyses were used to test for effect modification. RESULTS: Meta-analysis of seven trials (20 741 participants, mean age: 65.6 years, 32% women) showed that the efficacy of MRAs, as compared with placebo, in reducing a composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization remains consistent across patients with HF [risk ratio = 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-0.98] and without HF (risk ratio = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.75-0.93; interaction P = .77). Among patients with HF, MRAs reduced cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization in patients with AF (hazard ratio = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.54-1.66) to a similar extent as in those without AF (hazard ratio = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.63-1.07; interaction P = .65). Pooled data from 20 trials (21 791 participants, mean age: 65.2 years, 31.3% women) showed that MRAs reduce AF events (risk ratio = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.67-0.87) in both patients with and without prior AF. CONCLUSIONS: Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are similarly effective in preventing cardiovascular events in patients with and without HF and most likely retain their efficacy regardless of AF status. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists may also be moderately effective in preventing incident or recurrent AF events.

Anticoagulation in device-detected atrial fibrillation with or without vascular disease: a combined analysis of the NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The optimal antithrombotic therapy in patients with device-detected atrial fibrillation (DDAF) is unknown. Concomitant vascular disease can modify the benefits and risks of anticoagulation. METHODS: These pre-specified analyses of the NOAH-AFNET 6 (n=2534 patients) and ARTESiA (n=4012 patients) trials compared anticoagulation to no anticoagulation in patients with DDAF with or without vascular disease, defined as prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, coronary or peripheral artery disease. Efficacy outcomes were the primary outcomes of both trials, a composite of stroke, systemic arterial embolism (SE), myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism or cardiovascular death, and stroke or SE. Safety outcomes were major bleeding or major bleeding and death. RESULTS: In patients with vascular disease (NOAH-AFNET 6 56%, ARTESiA 46.0%), stroke, myocardial infarction, systemic or pulmonary embolism, or cardiovascular death occurred at 3.9%/patient-year with and 5.0%/patient-year without anticoagulation (NOAH-AFNET 6), and 3.2%/patient-year with and 4.4%/patient-year without anticoagulation (ARTESiA). Without vascular disease, outcomes were equal with and without anticoagulation (NOAH-AFNET 6 2.7%/patient-year, ARTESiA 2.3%/patient-year in both randomised groups). Meta-analysis found consistent results across both trials (I2heterogeneity=6%) with a trend for interaction with randomised therapy (pinteraction=0.08). Stroke/SE behaved similarly. Anticoagulation increased major bleeding in vascular disease patients (edoxaban 2.1%/patient-year, no anticoagulation 1.3%/patient-year; apixaban 1.7%/patient-year; no anticoagulation 1.1%/patient-year; incidence rate ratio 1.55 [1.10-2.20]) and without vascular disease (edoxaban 2.2%/patient-year; no anticoagulation 0.6%/patient-year; apixaban 1.4%/patient-year; no anticoagulation 1.1%/patient-year, incidence rate ratio 1.93 [0.72-5.20]). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with DDAF and vascular disease are at higher risk of stroke and cardiovascular events and may derive a greater benefit from anticoagulation than patients with DDAF without vascular disease.

Direct oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with device-detected atrial fibrillation: assessing net clinical benefit.

Subclinical, device-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is frequently recorded by pacemakers and other implanted cardiac rhythm devices. Patients with device-detected AF have an elevated risk of stroke, but a lower risk of stroke than similar patients with clinical AF captured with surface electrocardiogram. Two randomized clinical trials (NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA) have tested a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) against aspirin or placebo. A study-level meta-analysis of the two trials found that treatment with a DOAC resulted in a 32% reduction in ischaemic stroke and a 62% increase in major bleeding; the results of the two trials were consistent. The annualized rate of stroke in the control arms was ∼1%. Several factors point towards overall net benefit from DOAC treatment for patients with device-detected AF. Strokes in ARTESiA were frequently fatal or disabling and bleeds were rarely lethal. The higher absolute rates of major bleeding compared with ischaemic stroke while on treatment with a DOAC in the two trials are consistent with the ratio of bleeds to strokes seen in the pivotal DOAC vs. warfarin trials in patients with clinical AF. Prior research has concluded that patients place a higher emphasis on stroke prevention than on bleeding. Further research is needed to identify the characteristics that will help identify patients with device-detected AF who will receive the greatest benefit from DOAC treatment.

In DVT, oral DTIs and factor Xa inhibitors reduce major bleeding but not recurrent VTE vs. conventional anticoagulants.

SOURCE CITATION: Wang X, Ma Y, Hui X, et al. Oral direct thrombin inhibitors or oral factor Xa inhibitors versus conventional anticoagulants for the treatment of deep vein thrombosis. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2023;4:CD010956. 37058421.

Bone morphogenetic protein 10: a novel risk marker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Biomarkers specifically related to atrial tissue may increase the understanding of the pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) and further improve risk prediction in this setting. Bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10) is a protein expressed in the atrial myocardium. We evaluated the association between BMP10 and the risk of ischaemic stroke and other cardiovascular events in large cohorts of patients with AF, treated with and without oral anticoagulation (OAC). METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured in plasma samples collected at randomisation in patients with AF without OAC in the ACTIVE A and AVERROES trials (n = 2974), and with OAC in the ARISTOTLE trial (n = 13 079). BMP10 was analysed with a prototype Elecsys immunoassay. Associations with outcomes were evaluated by Cox-regression models adjusted for clinical characteristics, kidney function, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Median concentrations of BMP10 were 2.47 and 2.44 ng/mL, in the non-OAC and OAC cohort, respectively. Increasing BMP10 was associated with lower body mass index, older age, female sex, kidney dysfunction, and AF rhythm. BMP10 was consistently associated with ischaemic stroke. In the non-OAC cohort, BMP10 increased the concordance index of the multivariable model from 0.713 to 0.733 (P = 0.004) and in the OAC cohort from 0.673 to 0.694 (P < 0.001). Additionally, BMP10 maintained a significant prognostic value after additionally adjusting for NT-proBNP. BMP10 was not independently associated with bleeding or with death. CONCLUSION: The novel atrial biomarker BMP10 was independently associated with ischaemic stroke in patients with AF irrespective of OAC treatment. BMP10 seems to be more specifically related to the risk of ischaemic stroke in AF. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: In this study, BMP10 may be a novel specific biomarker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, irrespective of oral anticoagulation.

Outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation.

AIMS: The prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke while taking oral anticoagulation is poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize the outcomes of patients following a stroke event while on oral anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual participant data from five pivotal randomized trials of antithrombotic therapy in AF were used to assess the outcomes of patients with a post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (warfarin, standard-, or lower-dose direct oral anticoagulant regimen) during trial follow-up. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke after the first post-randomization ischemic stroke. The primary analysis included 1163 patients with a first post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (median age 73 years, 39.3% female, 35.4% history of stroke before trial enrollment). During a median continued follow-up of 337 days, 74 patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke [cumulative incidence at 1 year: 7.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2%-8.7%]. The cumulative incidence of mortality at 3 months after stroke was 12.4% (95% CI 10.5%-14.4%). Consistent results for the incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke at 1 year were obtained in an analysis accounting for the competing risk of death (6.2%, 95% CI 4.8%-7.9%) and in a landmark analysis excluding the first 2 weeks after the index stroke and only including patients without permanent study drug discontinuation since then (6.8%, 95% CI 4.6%-8.9%). CONCLUSION: Patients with AF and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation are at increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and death. These patients currently have an unmet medical need.

Mortality and Morbidity in Adults With Rheumatic Heart Disease.

Importance: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a public health issue in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there are few large studies enrolling individuals from multiple endemic countries. Objective: To assess the risk and predictors of major patient-important clinical outcomes in patients with clinical RHD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, hospital-based, prospective observational study including 138 sites in 24 RHD-endemic LMICs. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were cause-specific mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, stroke, recurrent rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis. This study analyzed event rates by World Bank country income groups and determined the predictors of mortality using multivariable Cox models. Results: Between August 2016 and May 2022, a total of 13 696 patients were enrolled. The mean age was 43.2 years and 72% were women. Data on vital status were available for 12 967 participants (94.7%) at the end of follow-up. Over a median duration of 3.2 years (41 478 patient-years), 1943 patients died (15% overall; 4.7% per patient-year). Most deaths were due to vascular causes (1312 [67.5%]), mainly HF or sudden cardiac death. The number of patients undergoing valve surgery (604 [4.4%]) and HF hospitalization (2% per year) was low. Strokes were infrequent (0.6% per year) and recurrent rheumatic fever was rare. Markers of severe valve disease, such as congestive HF (HR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.50-1.87]; P < .001), pulmonary hypertension (HR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.69]; P < .001), and atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.15-1.46]; P < .001) were associated with increased mortality. Treatment with surgery (HR, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.12-0.44]; P < .001) or valvuloplasty (HR, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.06-0.95]; P = .042) were associated with lower mortality. Higher country income level was associated with lower mortality after adjustment for patient-level factors. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality in RHD is high and is correlated with the severity of valve disease. Valve surgery and valvuloplasty were associated with substantially lower mortality. Study findings suggest a greater need to improve access to surgical and interventional care, in addition to the current approaches focused on antibiotic prophylaxis and anticoagulation.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Patient-Level Network Meta-Analyses of Randomized Clinical Trials With Interaction Testing by Age and Sex.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are preferred over warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Meta-analyses using individual patient data offer substantial advantages over study-level data. METHODS: We used individual patient data from the COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) database, which includes all patients randomized in the 4 pivotal trials of DOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation (RE-LY [Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy], ROCKET AF [Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], ARISTOTLE [Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation], and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 [Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48]), to perform network meta-analyses using a stratified Cox model with random effects comparing standard-dose DOAC, lower-dose DOAC, and warfarin. Hazard ratios (HRs [95% CIs]) were calculated for efficacy and safety outcomes. Covariate-by-treatment interaction was estimated for categorical covariates and for age as a continuous covariate, stratified by sex. RESULTS: A total of 71 683 patients were included (29 362 on standard-dose DOAC, 13 049 on lower-dose DOAC, and 29 272 on warfarin). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOACs were associated with a significantly lower hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (883/29 312 [3.01%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.74-0.89]), death (2276/29 312 [7.76%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.97]), and intracranial bleeding (184/29 270 [0.63%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.37-0.56]), but no statistically different hazard of major bleeding (1479/29 270 [5.05%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-1.01]), whereas lower-dose DOACs were associated with no statistically different hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (531/13 049 [3.96%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.95-1.19]) but a lower hazard of intracranial bleeding (55/12 985 [0.42%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.21-0.37]), death (1082/13 049 [8.29%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]), and major bleeding (564/12 985 [4.34%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.45-0.88]). Treatment effects for standard- and lower-dose DOACs versus warfarin were consistent across age and sex for stroke or systemic embolism and death, whereas standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with no history of vitamin K antagonist use (P=0.01) and lower creatinine clearance (P=0.09). For major bleeding, standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with lower body weight (P=0.02). In the continuous covariate analysis, younger patients derived greater benefits from standard-dose (interaction P=0.02) and lower-dose DOACs (interaction P=0.01) versus warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with warfarin, DOACs have more favorable efficacy and safety profiles among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Individual net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation using the ABC-AF risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Decisions on stroke prevention strategies in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) depend on the perceived risks of stroke and bleeding with different antithrombotic treatment strategies. The study objectives were to evaluate net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation (OAC) for the individual patient with AF and to identify clinically relevant thresholds for OAC treatment. METHODS: Patients with AF receiving OAC treatment in the randomized ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials, with available biomarkers for calculation of ABC-AF scores at baseline, were included (n = 23,121). Observed 1-year risk on OAC was compared with predicted 1-year risk if the same patients would not have received OAC using the ABC-AF scores calibrated for aspirin. Net clinical outcome was defined as the sum of stroke and major bleeding risks. RESULTS: The ratio between the 1-year incidence of major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism events ranged from 1.4 to 10.6 according to different ABC-AF risk profiles. Net clinical outcome analyses showed that in patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk >1% per year on OAC (>3% without OAC), treatment with OAC consistently provides larger net clinical benefit than no-OAC treatment. In patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk <1.0% per year on OAC (<3% without OAC) an individualized balancing of risks regarding OAC or no-OAC treatment is needed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, the ABC-AF risk scores allow an individual and continuous estimate of the balance between benefits and risks with OAC treatment. This precision medicine tool therefore seems useful as decision support and visualizes the net clinical benefit or harm with OAC treatment (http://www.abc-score.com/abcaf/). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 (ARISTOTLE) and NCT00262600 (RE-LY).

Plasma angiopoietin-2 and its association with heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Several biomarkers are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but a causal relationship has not been established. This study aimed to evaluate angiopoietin-2, a novel candidate biomarker of endothelial inflammation and vascular remodelling, in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Angiopoietin-2 was measured in plasma obtained from patients with AF treated with aspirin monotherapy (exploration cohort, n = 2987) or with oral anticoagulation (validation cohort, n = 13 079). Regression models were built to assess the associations between angiopoietin-2, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. In both cohorts, plasma angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with AF on the baseline electrocardiogram and persistent/permanent AF, age, history of heart failure, female sex, tobacco use/smoking, body mass index, renal dysfunction, diabetes, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure after adjusting for age, creatinine, and clinical characteristics in the exploration cohort [c-index 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.82; third vs. first quartile, hazard ratio (HR) 1.74, 95% CI 1.26-2.41] and in the validation cohort (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.74-0.78; HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37-1.82). In both cohorts, the association persisted when also adjusting for NT-proBNP (P ≤ 0.001). In full multivariable models also adjusted for NT-proBNP, angiopoietin-2 did not show statistically significant associations with ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular and all-cause death, or major bleeding that were consistent across the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, plasma levels of angiopoietin-2 were independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure and provided incremental prognostic value to clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP.

Techniques improving electrical cardioversion success for patients with atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Electrical cardioversion is commonly used to restore sinus rhythm in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but procedural technique and clinical success vary. We sought to identify techniques associated with electrical cardioversion success for AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and the grey literature from inception to October 2022. We abstracted data on initial and cumulative cardioversion success. We pooled data using random-effects models. From 15 207 citations, we identified 45 randomized trials and 16 observational studies. In randomized trials, biphasic when compared with monophasic waveforms resulted in higher rates of initial [16 trials, risk ratio (RR) 1.71, 95% CI 1.29-2.28] and cumulative success (18 trials, RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.16). Fixed, high-energy (≥200 J) shocks when compared with escalating energy resulted in a higher rate of initial success (four trials, RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.33-1.98). Manual pressure when compared with no pressure resulted in higher rates of initial (two trials, RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.21-3.95) and cumulative success (two trials, RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.34). Cardioversion success did not differ significantly for other interventions, including: antero-apical/lateral vs. antero-posterior positioned pads (initial: 11 trials, RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97-1.39; cumulative: 14 trials, RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.96-1.06); rectilinear/pulsed biphasic vs. biphasic truncated exponential waveform (initial: four trials, RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.91-1.34; cumulative: four trials, RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89-1.08) and cathodal vs. anodal configuration (cumulative: two trials, RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Biphasic waveforms, high-energy shocks, and manual pressure increase the success of electrical cardioversion for AF. Other interventions, especially pad positioning, require further study.

Effect of perioperative benzodiazepine use on intraoperative awareness and postoperative delirium: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Benzodiazepine use is associated with delirium, and guidelines recommend avoiding them in older and critically ill patients. Their perioperative use remains common because of perceived benefits. METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Web of Science from inception to June 2021. Pairs of reviewers identified randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies comparing perioperative use of benzodiazepines with other agents or placebo in patients undergoing surgery. Two reviewers independently abstracted data, which we combined using a random-effects model. Our primary outcomes were delirium, intraoperative awareness, and mortality. RESULTS: We included 34 randomised controlled trials (n=4354) and nine observational studies (n=3309). Observational studies were considered separately. Perioperative benzodiazepines did not increase the risk of delirium (n=1352; risk ratio [RR] 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9-2.27; I2=72%; P=0.13; very low-quality evidence). Use of benzodiazepines instead of dexmedetomidine did, however, increase the risk of delirium (five studies; n=429; RR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.24-2.72; I2=13%; P=0.002). Perioperative benzodiazepine use decreased the risk of intraoperative awareness (n=2245; RR 0.26; 95% CI: 0.12-0.58; I2=35%; P=0.001; very low-quality evidence). When considering non-events, perioperative benzodiazepine use increased the probability of not having intraoperative awareness (RR 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13; I2=98%; P=0.03; very low-quality evidence). Mortality was reported by one randomised controlled trial (n=800; RR 0.90; 95% CI: 0.20-3.1; P=0.80; very low quality). CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, perioperative benzodiazepine use did not increase postoperative delirium and decreased intraoperative awareness. Previously observed relationships of benzodiazepine use with delirium could be explained by comparisons with dexmedetomidine. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW PROTOCOL: PROSPERO CRD42019128144.

Biomarker-Based Risk Prediction With the ABC-AF Scores in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Not Receiving Oral Anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: The novel ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical History) scores outperform traditional risk scores for stroke, major bleeding, and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving oral anticoagulation. To refine their utility, the ABC-AF scores needed to be validated in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. METHODS: We measured plasma levels of the ABC biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, cardiac troponin-T, and growth-differentiation factor 15) to apply the previously developed ABC-AF scores in patients with AF receiving aspirin (n=3195) or aspirin and clopidogrel (n=1110) in 2 large clinical trials. Calibration was assessed by comparing estimated with observed 1-year risks. Cox regression models were used for recalibration. Discrimination was evaluated separately for the aspirin-only and the overall cohort (n=4305). RESULTS: The ABC-AF-stroke score yielded a c-index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73) in both cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding score had a c-index of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81) in the aspirin-only cohort and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77) overall. Both scores were superior to risk scores recommended by current guidelines. The ABC-AF-death score yielded a c-index of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.80) overall. Calibrated in patients receiving oral anticoagulation, the ABC-AF-stroke score underestimated and the ABC-AF-bleeding score overestimated the risk of events in both cohorts. These scores were recalibrated for prediction of absolute event rates in the absence of oral anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: The biomarker-based ABC-AF scores showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores and were recalibrated for precise risk estimation in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. They can now provide improved decision support on treatment of an individual patient with AF.

Estimated incidence of previously undetected atrial fibrillation on a 14-day continuous electrocardiographic monitor and associated risk of stroke.

AIMS: There is uncertainty about whether and how to perform screening for atrial fibrillation (AF). To estimate the incidence of previously undetected AF that would be captured using a continuous 14-day ECG monitor and the associated risk of stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data from a cohort of patients >65 years old with hypertension and a pacemaker, but without known AF. For each participant, we simulated 1000 ECG monitors by randomly selecting 14-day windows in the 6 months following enrolment and calculated the average AF burden (total time in AF). We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for CHA2DS2-VASc score to estimate the risk of subsequent ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) associated with burdens of AF > and <6 min. Among 2470 participants, the median CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.0, and 44 patients experienced SSE after 6 months following enrolment. The proportion of participants with an AF burden >6 min was 3.10% (95% CI 2.53-3.72). This was consistent across strata of age and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Over a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, the rate of SSE among patients with <6 min of AF was 0.70%/year, compared to 2.18%/year (adjusted HR 3.02; 95% CI 1.39-6.56) in those with >6 min of AF. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 3% of individuals aged >65 years with hypertension may have more than 6 min of AF detected by a 14-day ECG monitor. This is associated with a stroke risk of over 2% per year. Whether oral anticoagulation will reduce stroke in these patients is unknown.

Oral anticoagulation for patients with atrial fibrillation in the ED: RE-LY AF registry analysis.

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to determine predictors of OAC initiation in AF patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Secondary analysis of the RE-LY AF registry which enrolled individuals from 47 countries between 2007 and 2011 who presented to an ED with AF and followed them for 1 year. A total of 4149 patients with AF as their primary diagnosis who were not already taking OAC and had a CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 1 for men or ≥ 2 for women were included in this analysis. Of these individuals, 26.8% were started on OAC (99.2% vitamin K antagonists) in the ED and 29.8% were using OAC one year later. Factors associated with initiating OAC in the ED included: specialist consultation (relative risk [RR] 1.84, 95%CI 1.44-2.36), rheumatic heart disease (RR 1.60, 95%CI 1.29-1.99), persistence of AF at ED discharge (RR 1.33, 95%CI 1.18-1.50), diabetes mellitus (RR 1.32, 95%CI 1.19-1.47), and hospital admission (RR 1.30, 95%CI 1.14-1.47). Heart failure (RR 0.83, 95%CI 0.74-0.94), antiplatelet agents (RR 0.77, 95%CI 0.69-0.84), and dementia (RR 0.61, 95%CI 0.40-0.94) were inversely associated with OAC initiation. Patients taking OAC when they left the ED were more likely using OAC at 1-year (RR 2.81, 95%CI 2.55-3.09) and had lower rates of death (RR 0.55, 95%CI 0.38-0.79) and stroke (RR 0.59, 95%CI 0.37-0.96). In patients with AF presenting to the ED, prompt initiation of OAC and specialist involvement are associated with a greater use of OAC 1 year later and may result in improved clinical outcomes.