Prevalence of Subclinical Coronary Artery Atherosclerosis in the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of coronary atherosclerosis using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), in addition to coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring, may help inform prevention strategies. We used CCTA to determine the prevalence, severity, and characteristics of coronary atherosclerosis and its association with CAC scores in a general population. METHODS: We recruited 30 154 randomly invited individuals age 50 to 64 years to SCAPIS (the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Bioimage Study). The study includes individuals without known coronary heart disease (ie, no previous myocardial infarctions or cardiac procedures) and with high-quality results from CCTA and CAC imaging performed using dedicated dual-source CT scanners. Noncontrast images were scored for CAC. CCTA images were visually read and scored for coronary atherosclerosis per segment (defined as no atherosclerosis, 1% to 49% stenosis, or ≥50% stenosis). External validity of prevalence estimates was evaluated using inverse probability for participation weighting and Swedish register data. RESULTS: In total, 25 182 individuals without known coronary heart disease were included (50.6% women). Any CCTA-detected atherosclerosis was found in 42.1%; any significant stenosis (≥50%) in 5.2%; left main, proximal left anterior descending artery, or 3-vessel disease in 1.9%; and any noncalcified plaques in 8.3% of this population. Onset of atherosclerosis was delayed on average by 10 years in women. Atherosclerosis was more prevalent in older individuals and predominantly found in the proximal left anterior descending artery. Prevalence of CCTA-detected atherosclerosis increased with increasing CAC scores. Among those with a CAC score >400, all had atherosclerosis and 45.7% had significant stenosis. In those with 0 CAC, 5.5% had atherosclerosis and 0.4% had significant stenosis. In participants with 0 CAC and intermediate 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease according to the pooled cohort equation, 9.2% had CCTA-verified atherosclerosis. Prevalence estimates had excellent external validity and changed marginally when adjusted to the age-matched Swedish background population. CONCLUSIONS: Using CCTA in a large, random sample of the general population without established disease, we showed that silent coronary atherosclerosis is common in this population. High CAC scores convey a significant probability of substantial stenosis, and 0 CAC does not exclude atherosclerosis, particularly in those at higher baseline risk.

Plasma copeptin and the risk of diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Animal studies suggest that the arginine vasopressin system may play a role in glucose metabolism, but data from humans are limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed plasma copeptin (copeptin), a stable C-terminal fragment of the arginine vasopressin prohormone. Using baseline and longitudinal data from a Swedish population-based sample (n=4742; mean age, 58 years; 60% women) and multivariable logistic regression, we examined the association of increasing quartiles of copeptin (lowest quartile as reference) with prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, insulin resistance (top quartile of fasting plasma insulin among nondiabetic subjects), and incident diabetes mellitus on long-term follow-up. New-onset diabetes mellitus was ascertained through 3 national and regional registers. All models were adjusted for clinical and anthropometric risk factors, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein. In cross-sectional analyses, increasing copeptin was associated with prevalent diabetes mellitus (P=0.04) and insulin resistance (P<0.001). During 12.6 years of follow-up, 174 subjects (4%) developed new-onset diabetes mellitus. The odds of developing diabetes mellitus increased across increasing quartiles of copeptin, even after additional adjustment for baseline fasting glucose and insulin (adjusted odds ratios, 1.0, 1.37, 1.79, and 2.09; P for trend=0.004). The association with incident diabetes mellitus remained significant in analyses restricted to subjects with fasting whole blood glucose <5.4 mmol/L at baseline (adjusted odds ratios, 1.0, 1.80, 1.92, and 3.48; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated copeptin predicts increased risk for diabetes mellitus independently of established clinical risk factors, including fasting glucose and insulin. These findings could have implications for risk assessment, novel antidiabetic treatments, and metabolic side effects from arginine vasopressin system modulation.

Clinical risk factors, DNA variants, and the development of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is thought to develop from an interaction between environmental and genetic factors. We examined whether clinical or genetic factors or both could predict progression to diabetes in two prospective cohorts. METHODS: We genotyped 16 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and examined clinical factors in 16,061 Swedish and 2770 Finnish subjects. Type 2 diabetes developed in 2201 (11.7%) of these subjects during a median follow-up period of 23.5 years. We also studied the effect of genetic variants on changes in insulin secretion and action over time. RESULTS: Strong predictors of diabetes were a family history of the disease, an increased body-mass index, elevated liver-enzyme levels, current smoking status, and reduced measures of insulin secretion and action. Variants in 11 genes (TCF7L2, PPARG, FTO, KCNJ11, NOTCH2, WFS1, CDKAL1, IGF2BP2, SLC30A8, JAZF1, and HHEX) were significantly associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes independently of clinical risk factors; variants in 8 of these genes were associated with impaired beta-cell function. The addition of specific genetic information to clinical factors slightly improved the prediction of future diabetes, with a slight increase in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve from 0.74 to 0.75; however, the magnitude of the increase was significant (P=1.0x10(-4)). The discriminative power of genetic risk factors improved with an increasing duration of follow-up, whereas that of clinical risk factors decreased. CONCLUSIONS: As compared with clinical risk factors alone, common genetic variants associated with the risk of diabetes had a small effect on the ability to predict the future development of type 2 diabetes. The value of genetic factors increased with an increasing duration of follow-up.

Polymorphisms associated with cholesterol and risk of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with blood low-density lipoprotein (LDL) or high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol modestly affect lipid levels. We tested the hypothesis that a combination of such SNPs contributes to the risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We studied SNPs at nine loci in 5414 subjects from the cardiovascular cohort of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. We first validated the association between SNPs and either LDL or HDL cholesterol and subsequently created a genotype score on the basis of the number of unfavorable alleles. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to determine the time to the first cardiovascular event in relation to the genotype score. RESULTS: All nine SNPs showed replication of an association with levels of either LDL or HDL cholesterol. With increasing genotype scores, the level of LDL cholesterol increased from 152 mg to 171 mg per deciliter (3.9 to 4.4 mmol per liter), whereas HDL cholesterol decreased from 60 mg to 51 mg per deciliter (1.6 to 1.3 mmol per liter). During follow-up (median, 10.6 years), 238 subjects had a first cardiovascular event. The genotype score was associated with incident cardiovascular disease in models adjusted for covariates including baseline lipid levels (P<0.001). The use of the genotype score did not improve the clinical risk prediction, as assessed by the C statistic. However, there was a significant improvement in risk classification with the use of models that included the genotype score, as compared with those that did not include the genotype score. CONCLUSIONS: A genotype score of nine validated SNPs that are associated with modulation in levels of LDL or HDL cholesterol was an independent risk factor for incident cardiovascular disease. The score did not improve risk discrimination but did modestly improve clinical risk reclassification for individual subjects beyond standard clinical factors.

Increased cartilage turnover and circulating autoantibodies in different subsets before the clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that autoantibodies may be detected years before the clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Cartilage biomarkers, such as cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP), have not been studied previously in samples collected before the diagnosis of RA. METHODS: Between 1991 and 1996, 30 447 subjects were included in the Malmö Diet Cancer Study (MDCS). People who developed RA after inclusion were identified by linking the MDCS database to different Swedish registers. One matched control for each validated case was selected from the MDCS. IgG antibodies against cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) and mutated citrullinated vimentin (anti-MCV) and IgM rheumatoid factor (IgM RF) were determined by ELISA. Serum COMP was measured with a sandwich ELISA. RESULTS: 172 incident cases of RA (median time from inclusion to diagnosis 5 years; range 1-13) were identified. Pre-RA cases were significantly more likely than controls to be positive for anti-CCP (21.9% vs 0.6%), anti-MCV (29.6% vs 3.0%) and IgM RF (18.9% vs 2.4%) (all p<0.001). Overall, mean serum COMP levels did not differ between cases and controls. Among pre-RA cases included 1-3 years before diagnosis, raised COMP (>12 U/l) was seen in a greater proportion of anti-CCP-negative than anti-CCP-positive subjects (50% vs 15%; p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Increased cartilage turnover, measured by COMP, and circulating RA-specific antibodies may be distinct processes in the preclinical phase of RA.

Pulmonary dysfunction, smoking, socioeconomic status and the risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Environmental risk factors are of potential interest for both prevention and treatment of RA. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of pulmonary function, smoking and socio-economic status on the future risk of RA. METHODS: Between 1974 and 1992, 22 444 men and 10 902 women were included in the Malmö Preventive Medicine Program (MPMP). Pulmonary function was assessed by a standard screening spirometry. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and restrictive pulmonary dysfunction were defined based on pulmonary function tests. Individuals who developed RA were identified by linking the MPMP database to national and local RA registers. The patients were classified according to the 1987 ACR criteria for RA. Four matched controls for every case were selected. RESULTS: We identified 290 cases of incident RA (151 men/139 women; mean age at diagnosis 60 years). The median time from inclusion to diagnosis was 12 years. Forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume within 1 s values were similar in cases and controls, overall and also in separate analysis of those screened ≤8 years before diagnosis. There was no association between COPD or restrictive pulmonary dysfunction and subsequent development of RA. Current smoking was a strong predictor for RA [odds ratio (OR) 1.79; 95% CI 1.32, 2.42]. Blue-collar workers had an increased risk of RA (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.12, 2.10), independent of smoking. CONCLUSION: Pulmonary dysfunction did not predict RA, but smoking and low socio-economic status were independent risk factors for RA. Other effects of smoking may be important for RA susceptibility.

Occupation and risk of lymphoma: a multicentre prospective cohort study (EPIC).

OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests that certain occupations and related exposures may increase the risk of malignant lymphoma. Farming, printing and paper industry, wood processing, meat handling and processing, welding, shoe and leather manufacturing and teaching profession are among the categories that have been implicated in previous studies. The relationship between occupation and malignant lymphoma has been investigated in a large European prospective study. METHODS: We investigated occupational risks for lymphomas in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The mean follow-up time for 348,555 subjects was 9 years (SD: 2 years). The analysis was based on 866 and 48 newly diagnosed cases of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) and Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL). These were identified in the EPIC subcohorts with occupational data. Data on 52 occupations were collected through standardised questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the association between occupation and risk of malignant lymphoma. RESULTS: The following occupations were positively associated with malignant NHL after adjustment for study centre, age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), smoking and alcohol: butchers (HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.48, including multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma; HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.66, excluding multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma) and car repair workers (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.00, including multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma; HR=1.51, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.31, excluding multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma). HL was associated with gasoline station occupation (HR=4.59, 95% CI 1.08 to 19.6). CONCLUSION: The findings in this current study of a higher risk of NHL among car repair workers and butchers and a higher risk of HL among gasoline station workers suggest a possible role from occupationally related exposures, such as solvents and zoonotic viruses, as risk factors for malignant lymphoma.

Orthostatic hypotension predicts all-cause mortality and coronary events in middle-aged individuals (The Malmo Preventive Project).

AIMS: Orthostatic hypotension (OH) has been linked to increased mortality and incidence of cardiovascular disease in various risk groups, but determinants and consequences of OH in the general population are poorly studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective data of the Swedish 'Malmö Preventive Project' (n = 33 346, 67.3% men, mean age 45.7 +/- 7.4 years, mean follow-up 22.7 +/- 6.0 years) were analysed. Orthostatic hypotension was found in 6.2% of study participants and was associated with age, female gender, hypertension, antihypertensive treatment, increased heart rate, diabetes, low BMI, and current smoking. In Cox regression analysis, individuals with OH had significantly increased all-cause mortality (in particular those aged less than 42 years) and coronary event (CE) risk. Mortality and CE risk were distinctly higher in those with systolic blood pressure (BP) fall >or=30 mmHg [hazard ratio (HR): 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-1.9, P < 0.0001 and 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1, P = 0.001] and diastolic BP fall >or=15 mmHg (HR: 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.9, P = 0.024 and 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5, P = 0.01). In addition, impaired diastolic BP response had relatively greater impact (per mmHg) on CE incidence than systolic reaction. CONCLUSION: Orthostatic hypotension can be detected in approximately 6% of middle-aged individuals and is often associated with such comorbidities as hypertension or diabetes. Presence of OH increases mortality and CE risk, independently of traditional risk factors. Although both impaired systolic and diastolic responses predict adverse events, the diastolic impairment shows stronger association with coronary disease.

A gene score of nine LDL and HDL regulating genes is associated with fluvastatin-induced cholesterol changes in women.

While conventional pharmacogenetic studies have considered single gene effects, we tested if a genetic score of nine LDL- and HDL-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms, previously shown to predict cardiovascular disease, is related to fluvastatin-induced lipid change. In patients with asymptomatic plaque in the right carotid artery, thus candidates for statin therapy, we related score LDL [APOB(rs693), APOE(rs4420638), HMGCR(rs12654264), LDLR(rs1529729), and PCSK9(rs11591147)] and score HDL [ABCA1(rs3890182), CETP(rs1800775), LIPC(rs1800588), and LPL(rs328)] as well as the combined score LDL+HDL to fluvastatin-induced LDL reduction (+/- metoprolol) (n = 395) and HDL increase (n = 187) following 1 year of fluvastatin treatment. In women, an increasing number of unfavorable alleles (i.e., alleles conferring higher LDL and lower HDL) of score LDL+HDL (P = 0.037) and of score LDL (P = 0.023) was associated with less pronounced fluvastatin-induced LDL reduction. Furthermore, in women, both score LDL+HDL (P = 0.001) and score HDL (P = 0.022) were directly correlated with more pronounced fluvastatin-induced HDL increase, explaining 5.9-11.6% of the variance in treatment response in women. There were no such associations in men. This suggests that a gene score based on variation in nine different LDL- and HDL-associated genes is of importance for the magnitude of fluvastatin HDL increase in women with asymptomatic plaque in the carotid artery.

Double-strand break DNA repair genotype predictive of later mortality and cancer incidence in a cohort of non-smokers.

We followed-up for mortality and cancer incidence 1088 healthy non-smokers from a population-based study, who were characterized for 22 variants in 16 genes involved in DNA repair pathways. Follow-up was 100% complete. The association between polymorphism and mortality or cancer incidence was analyzed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression models. Ninety-five subjects had died in a median follow-up time of 78 months (inter-quartile range 59-93 months). None of the genotypes was clearly associated with total mortality, except variants for two Double-Strand Break DNA repair genes, XRCC3 18067 C>T (rs#861539) and XRCC2 31479 G>A (rs#3218536). Adjusted hazard ratios were 2.25 (1.32-3.83) for the XRCC3 C/T genotype and 2.04 (1.00-4.13) for the T/T genotype (reference C/C), and 2.12 (1.14-3.97) for the XRCC2 G/A genotype (reference G/G). For total cancer mortality, the adjusted hazard ratios were 3.29 (1.23-7.82) for XRCC3 C/T, 2.84 (0.81-9.90) for XRCC3 T/T and 3.17 (1.21-8.30) for XRCC2 G/A. With combinations of three or more adverse alleles, the adjusted hazard ratio for all cause mortality was 17.29 (95% C.I. 8.13-36.74), and for all incident cancers the HR was 5.28 (95% C.I. 2.17-12.85). Observations from this prospective study suggest that polymorphisms of genes involved in the repair of DNA double-strand breaks significantly influence the risk of cancer and non-cancer disease, and can influence mortality.

Homozygosity for the EPHX2 K55R polymorphism increases the long-term risk of ischemic stroke in men: a study in Swedes.

OBJECTIVES: The soluble epoxide hydrolase (gene name EPHX2) is responsible for metabolism of 8,9 11,12 and 14,15-epoxyeicosatrienoic acids, vasodilator and anti-inflammatory substances. There are several functional polymorphisms in the EPHX2 gene: two of them, the K55R and R287Q, showing an altered metabolic activity in vitro, were associated with coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke in previous studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of four polymorphisms in the EPHX2 gene on blood pressure levels, hypertension prevalence, and risk of incident cardiovascular events in a large sample of middle-aged Swedes. METHODS: The incidence of cardiovascular events (coronary events, n = 274; ischemic stroke, n = 197) was monitored over 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In the whole population, all polymorphisms had no effect on the studied parameters but a positive interaction between male sex and three SNPs including the K55R was evident: male, but not female, EPHX2 R55R homozygotes had significantly higher crude and adjusted systolic blood pressure and higher hypertension prevalence with respect to K-carriers. Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher incidence of ischemic strokes in male R55R homozygotes with respect to K-carriers (P = 0.015 by log-rank test). After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio for incident ischemic stroke in male R55R homozygotes remained significantly higher (hazard ratio: 4.8; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-19.9). CONCLUSION: The functional K55R polymorphism of the EPHX2 gene confers a higher risk of hypertension prevalence and increases the risk of incident ischemic stroke in male homozygotes. Additional studies are needed to confirm these data and to elucidate the interaction between sex and the EPHX2 K55R polymorphism.

Mechanisms by which common variants in the TCF7L2 gene increase risk of type 2 diabetes.

Genetic variants in the gene encoding for transcription factor-7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and impaired beta cell function, but the mechanisms have remained unknown. We therefore studied prospectively the ability of common variants in TCF7L2 to predict future T2D and explored the mechanisms by which they would do this. Scandinavian subjects followed for up to 22 years were genotyped for 3 SNPs (rs7903146, rs12255372, and rs10885406) in TCF7L2, and a subset of them underwent extensive metabolic studies. Expression of TCF7L2 was related to genotype and metabolic parameters in human islets. The CT/TT genotypes of SNP rs7903146 strongly predicted future T2D in 2 independent cohorts (Swedish and Finnish). The risk T allele was associated with impaired insulin secretion, incretin effects, and enhanced rate of hepatic glucose production. TCF7L2 expression in human islets was increased 5-fold in T2D, particularly in carriers of the TT genotype. Overexpression of TCF7L2 in human islets reduced glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. In conclusion, the increased risk of T2D conferred by variants in TCF7L2 involves the enteroinsular axis, enhanced expression of the gene in islets, and impaired insulin secretion.

Male infertility and prostate cancer risk: a nested case-control study.

The pathogenesis of prostate cancer is unclear, although experimental evidence implicates androgens as playing an important role. Infertile men frequently suffer from some degree of hypogonadism and may hence be hypothesized to be at lower risk of developing prostate cancer than fertile men. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a case-control study nested within "the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study" cohort in Sweden, inviting 661 prostate cancer cases and 661 age-matched controls to participate. Of the 975 (74%) respondents, we excluded 84 childless men with unknown fertility status. Thus, 891 men were included, providing 445 prostate cancer cases and 446 controls. Of these, 841 (94%) men were biological fathers and 50 (6%) men were infertile. Logistic regression showed that the infertile men were at significantly lower risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer than the fertile men (odds ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.83). Conditional and unconditional multivariate models, adjusting for socioeconomic, anthropometric, and health-status-related factors, provided similar estimates. We conclude that enduring male infertility is associated with a reduced prostate cancer risk, thus corroborating the theory that normal testicular function, and hence most probably sufficient steroidogenesis, is an important contributing factor to the later development of this malignancy.

Ion mobility analysis of lipoprotein subfractions identifies three independent axes of cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE: Whereas epidemiological studies show that levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) predict incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), there is limited evidence relating lipoprotein subfractions and composite measures of subfractions to risk for CVD in prospective cohort studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tested whether combinations of lipoprotein subfractions independently predict CVD in a prospective cohort of 4594 initially healthy men and women (the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, mean follow-up 12.2 years, 377 incident cardiovascular events). Plasma lipoproteins and lipoprotein subfractions were measured at baseline with a novel high-resolution ion mobility technique. Principal component analysis (PCA) of subfraction concentrations identified 3 major independent (ie, zero correlation) components of CVD risk, one representing LDL-associated risk, a second representing HDL-associated protection, and the third representing a pattern of decreased large HDL, increased small/medium LDL, and increased triglycerides. The last corresponds to the previously described "atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype." Several genes that may underlie this phenotype-CETP, LIPC, GALNT2, MLXIPL, APOA1/A5, LPL-are suggested by SNPs associated with the combination of small/medium LDL and large HDL. CONCLUSIONS: PCA on lipoprotein subfractions yielded three independent components of CVD risk. Genetic analyses suggest these components represent independent mechanistic pathways for development of CVD.

Physical activity and lung cancer among non-smokers: a pilot molecular epidemiological study within EPIC.

The association between physical activity, potential intermediate biomarkers and lung cancer risk was investigated in a study of 230 cases and 648 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition. Data on white blood cell aromatic-DNA adducts by (32)P-post-labelling and glutathione (GSH) in red blood cells were available from a subset of cases and controls. Compared with the first quartile, the fourth quartile of recreational physical activity was associated with a lower lung cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.90), higher GSH levels (+1.87 micromol GSH g(-1) haemoglobin, p = 0.04) but not with the presence of high levels of adducts (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.38-2.86). Despite being associated with recreational physical activity, in these small-scale pilot analyses GSH levels were not associated with lung cancer risk (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.84-1.07 per unit increase in GSH levels). Household and occupational activity was not associated with lung cancer risk or biomarker levels.

A prospective analysis of the association between dietary fiber intake and prostate cancer risk in EPIC.

Few studies have examined the association between dietary fiber intake and prostate cancer risk. We evaluated the association between dietary fiber intake and the risk of prostate cancer among 142,590 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Consumption of dietary fiber (total, cereal, fruit and vegetable fiber) was estimated by validated dietary questionnaires and calibrated using 24-hr dietary recalls. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using Cox regression and adjusted for potential confounding factors. During an average of 8.7 years follow-up, prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2,747 men. Overall, there was no association between dietary fiber intake (total, cereal, fruit or vegetable fiber) and prostate cancer risk, although calibrated intakes of total fiber and fruit fiber were associated with nonstatistically significant reductions in risk. There was no association between fiber derived from cereals or vegetables and risk and no evidence for heterogeneity in any of the risk estimates by stage or grade of disease. Our results suggest that dietary fiber intake is not associated with prostate cancer risk.

Novel and conventional biomarkers for prediction of incident cardiovascular events in the community.

CONTEXT: Prior studies have demonstrated conflicting results regarding how much information novel biomarkers add to cardiovascular risk assessment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of contemporary biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular risk when added to conventional risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study of 5067 participants (mean age, 58 years; 60% women) without cardiovascular disease from Malmö, Sweden, who attended a baseline examination between 1991 and 1994. Participants underwent measurement of C-reactive protein (CRP), cystatin C, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2, midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM), midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (N-BNP) and underwent follow-up until 2006 using the Swedish national hospital discharge and cause-of-death registers and the Stroke in Malmö register for first cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary death). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident cardiovascular and coronary events. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 12.8 years, there were 418 cardiovascular and 230 coronary events. Models with conventional risk factors had C statistics of 0.758 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.734 to 0.781) and 0.760 (0.730 to 0.789) for cardiovascular and coronary events, respectively. Biomarkers retained in backward-elimination models were CRP and N-BNP for cardiovascular events and MR-proADM and N-BNP for coronary events, which increased the C statistic by 0.007 (P = .04) and 0.009 (P = .08), respectively. The proportion of participants reclassified was modest (8% for cardiovascular risk, 5% for coronary risk). Net reclassification improvement was nonsignificant for cardiovascular events (0.0%; 95% CI, -4.3% to 4.3%) and coronary events (4.7%; 95% CI, -0.76% to 10.1%). Greater improvements were observed in analyses restricted to intermediate-risk individuals (cardiovascular events: 7.4%; 95% CI, 0.7% to 14.1%; P = .03; coronary events: 14.6%; 95% CI, 5.0% to 24.2%; P = .003). However, correct reclassification was almost entirely confined to down-classification of individuals without events rather than up-classification of those with events. CONCLUSIONS: Selected biomarkers may be used to predict future cardiovascular events, but the gains over conventional risk factors are minimal. Risk classification improved in intermediate-risk individuals, mainly through the identification of those unlikely to develop events.

Haplotypes of the estrogen receptor beta gene and breast cancer risk.

Exposure to exogenous (oral contraceptives, postmenopausal hormone therapy) and endogenous (number of ovulatory cycles, adiposity) steroid hormones is associated with breast cancer risk. Breast cancer risk associated with these exposures could hypothetically be modified by genes in the steroid hormone synthesis, metabolism and signaling pathways. Estrogen receptors are the first step along the path of signaling cell growth and development upon stimulation with estrogens. The National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium has systematically selected haplotype tagging SNPs in genes along the steroid hormone synthesis, metabolism and binding pathways, including the estrogen receptor beta (ESR2) gene. Four htSNPs tag the 6 major (>5% frequency) haplotypes of the ESR2 gene. These polymorphisms have been genotyped in 5,789 breast cancer cases and 7,761 controls nested within the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II, European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, Multiethnic Cohort, Nurses' Health Study and Women's Health Study cohorts. None of the SNPs were independently associated with breast cancer risk. One haplotype of the ESR2 gene was associated with breast cancer risk before correction for multiple testing (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.28, p = 0.0007). This haplotype remained associated with breast cancer risk after adjustment for multiple testing using a permutation procedure. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity in SNP or haplotype odds ratios across cohorts. These data suggest that inherited variants in ESR2 (while possibly conferring a small increased risk of breast cancer) are not associated with appreciable (OR > 1.2) changes in breast cancer risk among Caucasian women.

Blood pressure and risk of renal cell carcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

Elevated blood pressure has been implicated as a risk factor for renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but prospective studies were confined to men and did not consider the effect of antihypertensive medication. The authors examined the relation among blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, and RCC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Blood pressure was measured in 296,638 women and men, recruited in eight European countries during 1992-1998, 254,935 of whom provided information on antihypertensive medication. During a mean follow-up of 6.2 years, 250 cases of RCC were identified. Blood pressure was independently associated with risk of RCC. The relative risks for the highest versus the lowest category of systolic (>/=160 mmHg vs. <120 mmHg) and diastolic (>/=100 mmHg vs. <80 mmHg) blood pressures were 2.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.53, 4.02) and 2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.54, 3.55). Risk estimates did not significantly differ according to sex or use of antihypertensive medication. Individuals taking antihypertensive drugs were not at a significantly increased risk unless blood pressure was poorly controlled. These results support the hypothesis that hypertension, rather than its medications, increases the risk of RCC in both sexes, while effective blood pressure control may lower the risk.

Smoking and lymphoma risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

Lymphomas are one of the few cancers that have been increasing in incidence over the past decades. So far, only a few established risk factors have been identified, including immunosuppression and viral infections. Recent evidence suggests etiologic heterogeneity of different lymphoma subtypes. Smoking may affect risk differently, depending on the lymphoma entity. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition was used to study the role of smoking in the etiology of lymphomas and individual subtypes within a prospective study. Information on baseline and lifetime tobacco smoking by 478,590 participants was collected between 1992 and 2000. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During 3,567,410 person-years of follow-up, 1,371 lymphoma cases (1,304 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas and 67 Hodgkin's lymphomas) were identified. Relative risk for smokers at recruitment was more than twofold higher for Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio = 2.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 3.87) but was not elevated for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.94, 1.19) and individual B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma subtypes. In this prospective study, smoking appeared to increase Hodgkin's lymphoma risk consistently in both genders, whereas B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma risk was not associated. Future analysis should involve viral biomarkers and genetic susceptibility markers to elucidate potential mechanisms of smoking-induced carcinogenesis, particularly for Hodgkin's lymphoma.