Twenty-year record of white pox disease in the Florida Keys: importance of environmental risk factors as drivers of coral health.

Declining coral populations worldwide place a special premium on identifying risks and drivers that precipitate these declines. Understanding the relationship between disease outbreaks and their drivers can help to anticipate when the risk of a disease pandemic is high. Populations of the iconic branching Caribbean elkhorn coral Acropora palmata have collapsed in recent decades, in part due to white pox disease (WPX). To assess the role that biotic and abiotic factors play in modulating coral disease, we present a predictive model for WPX in A. palmata using 20 yr of disease surveys from the Florida Keys plus environmental information collected simultaneously in situ and via satellite. We found that colony size was the most influential predictor for WPX occurrence, with larger colonies being at higher risk. Water quality parameters of dissolved oxygen saturation, total organic carbon, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and salinity were implicated in WPX likelihood. Both low and high wind speeds were identified as important environmental drivers of WPX. While high temperature has been identified as an important cause of coral mortality in both bleaching and disease scenarios, our model indicates that the relative influence of HotSpot (positive summertime temperature anomaly) was low and actually inversely related to WPX risk. The predictive model developed here can contribute to enabling targeted strategic management actions and disease surveillance, enabling managers to treat the disease or mitigate disease drivers, thereby suppressing the disease and supporting the persistence of corals in an era of myriad threats.

Systematic Analysis of White Pox Disease in Acropora palmata of the Florida Keys and Role of Serratia marcescens.

White pox disease (WPD) affects the threatened elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata. Owing in part to the lack of a rapid and simple diagnostic test, there have been few systematic assessments of the prevalence of acroporid serratiosis (caused specifically by Serratia marcescens) versus general WPD signs. Six reefs in the Florida Keys were surveyed between 2011 and 2013 to determine the disease status of A. palmata and the prevalence of S. marcescens. WPD was noted at four of the six reefs, with WPD lesions found on 8 to 40% of the colonies surveyed. S. marcescens was detected in 26.9% (7/26) of the WPD lesions and in mucus from apparently healthy colonies both during and outside of disease events (9%; 18/201). S. marcescens was detected with greater frequency in A. palmata than in the overlying water column, regardless of disease status (P = 0.0177). S. marcescens could not be cultured from A. palmata but was isolated from healthy colonies of other coral species and was identified as pathogenic pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type PDR60. WPD lesions were frequently observed on the reef, but unlike in prior outbreaks, no whole-colony death was observed. Pathogenic S. marcescens was circulating on the reef but did not appear to be the primary pathogen in these recent WPD episodes, suggesting that other pathogens or stressors may contribute to signs of WPD. Results highlight the critical importance of diagnostics in coral disease investigations, especially given that field manifestation of disease may be similar, regardless of the etiological agent.

Shifting white pox aetiologies affecting Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys, 1994-2014.

We propose 'the moving target hypothesis' to describe the aetiology of a contemporary coral disease that differs from that of its historical disease state. Hitting the target with coral disease aetiology is a complex pursuit that requires understanding of host and environment, and may lack a single pathogen solution. White pox disease (WPX) affects the Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Acroporid serratiosis is a form of WPX for which the bacterial pathogen (Serratia marcescens) has been established. We used long-term (1994-2014) photographic monitoring to evaluate historical and contemporary epizootiology and aetiology of WPX affecting A. palmata at eight reefs in the Florida Keys. Ranges of WPX prevalence over time (0-71.4%) were comparable for the duration of the 20-year study. Whole colony mortality and disease severity were high in historical (1994-2004), and low in contemporary (2008-2014), outbreaks of WPX. Acroporid serratiosis was diagnosed for some historical (1999, 2003) and contemporary (2012, 2013) outbreaks, but this form of WPX was not confirmed for all WPX cases. Our results serve as a context for considering aetiology as a moving target for WPX and other coral diseases for which pathogens are established and/or candidate pathogens are identified. Coral aetiology investigations completed to date suggest that changes in pathogen, host and/or environment alter the disease state and complicate diagnosis.

Wetland cover dynamics drive hemorrhagic disease patterns in white-tailed deer in the United States.

While vector-borne diseases are known to be particularly influenced by environmental factors, the impact of land-cover change on vector-borne wildlife disease patterns is poorly understood, largely due to the paucity of data on disease occurrence at extensive spatial and temporal scales. Widespread and rapid anthropogenic land-cover change, especially urbanization, has transformed the US landscape during the last century. Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus and blue tongue virus, vectored by Culicoides biting midges, are two RNA viruses in the Orbivirus genus that cause severe hemorrhagic disease (HD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We examine the spatial dynamics of HD affecting white-tailed deer in the contiguous United States in two periods covering 1980 to 2007 in connection with land-cover change over the same time. Using spatial statistical modeling, wetland cover emerges as a critical driver of HD morbidity, whereas the drivers of mortality patterns are more complex. Increasing wetland cover is positively associated with HD morbidity, which is consistent with the ecologic requirements of the Culicoides vector. Wetland cover is inherently dynamic due to its importance to biodiversity and water quality as well as its utility for other purposes when drained. Accordingly this analysis helps in understanding the consequences of changing wetlands on vector-borne disease patterns, to identify disease hotspots in a large landscape, and to forecast the spatial spread of HD and related diseases.